China's epidemic may really alleviate quickly. The short -term rebound of the economy is strong. Beijing can calmly respond to the challenges of the game of the great power. Avoid a military conflict that will inevitably defeat and destroy the strategic opportunities of peaceful development.
New Year's and new weather, the beginning of the year will always bring beautiful expectations, especially the "century epidemic" that has experienced three years. No one does not want whether this year can come.Sorry, the gap between objective reality and subjective expectations cannot be seen, so I will talk about some observations that are not very positive on New Year's Day, and I am afraid that it will sweep the reader's interest.
Historical events have their own operating logic. What happened last year will have a sequel to this year. For example, the Russian and Ukraine War, which is defeated, and the climate will be warmed in the cold winter.The negative decisive battle allows the two to sit on the negotiating table.Ukraine is now undergoing, unless there is an accident, Russia may not be able to reverse the defeat.
But the three current events that made me care about in 2023 are not far from the sky.The first thing is the development of Chinese crown disease.Since the past three years, the strict strict prevention and preservation of death and control, suddenly letting go overnight, which has a far -reaching impact on China and the world, may not be particularly concerned.
From the comprehensive impression of various channels, the zero -zero policy that has not been shaken for three years seems to end with inadequate preparation. Public medical resources such as hospitals and other public medical resources are likely to collapse under the heavy burden of patients.People can't even buy basic antipyretics. Because older high -risk groups do not take effective vaccines in time, the mortality rate may increase rapidly.If the official has stopped publishing data -related data, the published data violates the personal understanding of the people and makes the remaining credibility.
International infectious disease experts, including the World Health Organization, warns that the opaque data of Chinese epidemic data, coupled with the sudden opening of the lack of preparation, may bring unexpected serious consequences.From the perspective of evolution theory, the variation trajectory of the virus is usually evolved in the direction of the decrease in mortality and increased spread, because if it is too fast to go with the host, it will lose a lot of opportunities to spread.
But in the past three years, the Chinese people have basically not formed natural group immunity due to their retreat. In addition, the vaccination rate is not high. It is a fertile soil for virus transmission.Therefore, there is no need to sacrifice the mortality rate in China's virus variation in China, and it can also be quickly popular; coupled with the sudden opening in the cold season, there will be a Spring Festival that is convenient for the large -scale virus in the country. Infectious disease experts are worried that the virus will mutate in China in ChinaA new variant of a high mortality and dissemination rate, and the restoration of international flights through China's comprehensive recovery, has led to another round of global popularity.
The second thing is the Chinese economy under the epidemic.As the main engine of global economic growth, the Chinese economy has paid a heavy price for the clearing policy.Although different economists will conclude the opposite conclusions of multiple or empty or empty conclusions from official data. From common sense, the operation of the free market is mainly based on the circulation transactions of personnel and materials.Clear zero blocking flows will inevitably crack down on economic vitality.Therefore, some analysts believe that the biggest reason for China's sudden reversal of clear zero policy is that the economic situation is no longer delayed.
It is like a giant civil aviation aircraft that needs time to make the engine gathered enough power. With China's economic volume, it is necessary to restore the normal state from the state of inefficient operation in three years. It also takes a period of time, and the process may not be smooth sailing.Enterprises that go bankrupt and closed during the control period are difficult to be filled by new companies in a short period of time.Suddenly opening the spread of epidemic, which will also crack down on production and consumption.At the same time, due to the opaque information, the market expectations are uncertain. Whether it is consumption or investment, it lacks sufficient confidence support.
As a world factory and the rise of consumer markets, China's economic status can be described as the whole body. If the Chinese epidemic cannot be "fast peak" as official expected, it is as good as other countries.The global economy may not be optimistic in 2023.
The third thing is the situation of the Taiwan Strait.Taiwan Tsai Ing -wen announced on December 27 last year that the volunteer military service has been raised from four months to one year.Although symbolic significance is greater than practical significance, this approach reflects that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is not optimistic.The epidemic and economic challenges faced by mainland China will be particularly prominent this year, and the official mind needs to be unprecedented and go all out.Therefore, in terms of rationality, it is impossible for Beijing to have extraordinary branches and cause the situation in the Taiwan Strait to be out of control.
The problem lies in the observation of the Chinese government to handle the epidemic and economy, and it is not easy for the outside world to understand the decision logic behind it.It is not the judgment of Zhuge afterwards that the economic cost of clearing the zero is not the judgment of Zhuge. The experience of countries around the world shows that the virus cannot be cleared, and the sealing control will inevitably destroy the economy and livelihood.Similarly, the end of the clearing policy seems to be hastily and insufficient. In addition, the information is opaque, and the real social cost is probably difficult to evaluate.
Therefore, in rationality, mainland China should concentrate on handling the epidemic and economy, but the United States has continuously put pressure on China and advances step by step, which will cause Beijing to make a fierce judgment on the situation in Taiwan.The conflict of conflict is still unrelated geopolitical risks.
In addition, whether China's epidemic and economy can develop well is also unknown.If the subjective expectations of "fast peaks" fail to achieve and the economic situation worsen, social stability will inevitably become the main contradiction. At that time, the internal contradictions are transferred by the martial arts martial arts in Taiwan, and it will become more tempting.
Of course, these may be worried.China's epidemic may really relieve it quickly, the short -term rebound of the economy is strong, Beijing can calmly respond to the challenges of the game of the great power, avoid a military conflict that will inevitably lose, and destroy the strategic opportunities of peaceful development.This is true, the world is fortunate, and it can be regarded as a good year in 2023.I wish all readers a safe New Year.
