Bao Shenggang
At present, a general point of view is that globalization has ended, and the world is entering an era of "de -globalization".However, in fact, globalization is triggering a global economic inflation, stagnation and recession. More and more countries have begun to realize that de -globalization is also a "massacre".And more conspicuous is that most countries in the world, especially China, Asia and Southeast Asia, do not oppose globalization. On the contrary, globalization is that globalization is an opportunity for its own development, which is becoming the center of the new round of globalization.
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that de -globalization will have a negative impact on the global economy, and countries should take wise actions to diversify the supply chain.IMF President Golkiya, Director -General of WTO Ivera, and other international organization leaders, recently met with German Chancellor in Berlin, Berlin.Golkaya said at a press conference after the meeting that after the crown disease epidemic invading Ukraine, globalization is facing the biggest challenge since World War II.
She said: "But don't pour babies and bath water together. Don't stop trade that benefit us all." Ivera also warned: "Exit trade and embrace protectionism, it will let us currently face problems currently facing problems currently facing.It becomes more difficult, not easier to solve. Protectionism, decoupling, and fragmentation are very destructive and costly. "According to WTO estimates, if the global economic differentiation becomes two trading groups, it will lead to domestic domestic production in the long run.The total value (GDP) atrophy 5%.
Going to globalization and fragmentation has the greatest impact on developing countries and emerging markets, and GDP atrophy in these countries will reach double digits.Ivera called on countries to take wise measures to decentralize the manufacturing industry and warn the practice of not relying on Friend-SHORING.Golkaya said that global economic growth may be lower than the 2.7%predicted by the IMF in mid -October next year, and it is expected that one -third of the economies will fall into decline, including about half of EU member states.
However, unlike European and American countries, China and Asian countries are becoming a new round of global development center.After the 1980s, the rise and economic miracle of Japan first in Asia, and then with the overflow of the Japanese economy, there were the glory of Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan Asia.Then the rise and miracle of China not only proves that China is the next Japan, but also the next super Japan.At present, with the overflow of China's economy, who will become the new "Four Little Dragons" in Asia?Undoubtedly, Vietnam will become the first choice for the new "four dragons" in Asia.
Will Vietnam be the next China?This is a fashionable topic that people are currently talking about.Obviously, from the perspective of volume, Vietnam is not enough to become the next China, or to be the next reduced version of China.However, Vietnam is more than enough to become the first of Asia's "Four Little Dragons".Compared with the continuous downturn and pessimism of the world's economy today, the economic take -off of Vietnam and the Asianan country is obviously a dazzling landscape.Among them, Vietnam is the most conspicuous. Under the crown disease epidemic, Vietnam, which "crossed the river in China", suddenly became popular.In the first quarter of this year, Vietnam's GDP is expected to increase by 5.03%year -on -year to China (4.8%).Trade export results are particularly noticeable.
Vietnam, with a population of 98 million, the total import and export of the quarterly cargo reached 176.35 billion US dollars (about S $ 237.37 billion), which is equivalent to 61%of Guangdong Province (127 million permanent population) in China during the same period, and Jiangsu Province (the permanent population is 85 million yuan) 90%.During the period, Vietnam's export volume reached 88.58 billion US dollars (an increase of 12.9%year -on -year), which has exceeded the total exports of Shenzhen, China.Although there is still a large gap with China, in terms of its own volume, Vietnam is accelerating to become the new "world factory".
The economic rise of Vietnam and the Asianan countries is obviously inseparable from the transfer of labor -intensive industries from China to Southeast Asian countries.In fact, with the rise in China's labor costs, this transfer has already occurred, and some scholars call it overflow, and the overflow is currently accelerating.If Vietnam relied on the power of one country, it would be difficult for the next world factory, and a continuously integrated Asian economy could not be underestimated.The cheap labor of Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos, the cost advantages of Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, and mature manufacturers in Singapore and Malaysia, intertwined into a huge and complete manufacturing network, which is promoting Asia to become Asia second only to China and China and China.India's third growth pole.
According to the blueprint of the community of the Asian detailed economic community in 2025, the goods, services, capital and labor of 10 member states will achieve free flow.With the continuous enhanced economic and trade complementarity, Asia will release greater attractiveness and growth potential.By 2030, young people under the age of 30 will account for more than half of Southeast Asia's 650 million population, and many of them will become a new middle class with strong consumption power.
More than 30 years ago, the trend of neo -liberalism swept the world, and Mrs. Sachel, British Prime Minister, explained: The reason is "no choice."The market has the overall situation, and those countries that try to violate historical trends will pay for their stupidity."It's economy, fool".However, more than 30 years later, people think that this understanding is superficial because power determines the relationship between authority and the market. Unless the power of power and the permission of authoritative persons, the market cannot play a leading role in political and economic aspects."Politics, fool."
Who is a fool?Obviously, if economists are fatal to deny the role of the government and power, we can also say that the fatal arrogance of politicians often ignores the laws of the market.
The author works in Canada Overseas Group
