Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Bai Zhongshi

Recently, Chinese leaders pointed out at the Central Economic Work Conference that confidence is more important than gold.Previously, leaders also emphasized the importance of confidence in development in many international and domestic speeches.The world is in the unreasonable change in a century. Some people believe that "China is the vested interest of the current international order." It is worried that the changes in the general trend will weaken China's comparative advantage in international competition.The starting point of this understanding is not all dark, but it has not seen the underlying logic of China's development and the game of great powers.

The international order has never been changed. It changes with the actions of the establishment of the country with order.Globalization, as the main force of promoting world economic development and cultural connection for a period of time, is an important part of today's international order.China emphasizes that it is the maintenanceer of international order, and supports continuing to promote globalization, not referring to we must "eat bonus" in the old pattern.To maintain international order, it does not refer to the rules of Mo Su, but a stable optimization.Among the current international order, the factors related to globalization and the development of China are not originally in China, but we are actively actions, real knives, real guns, and maintenance.

The confidence of China's development comes from core competitiveness

Some people think that "China's development is good, it is a global car" "because there are many Chinese people, cheap labor, good infrastructure, and can build a world factory."This understanding is shallow and inverted.

Globalization was not designed around China's needs; China's infrastructure did not appear out of thin air; how to gradually transform the huge population into labor and productive forces that meet the requirements of the development of the times, it is a world problem in itself.; It is now generally regarded as the population scale of competitive advantages, and has also been criticized as an obstacle to economic development and the improvement of people's living standards.To this day, most of the countries that are "not lacking" have not transformed human resources into a competitive advantage. Even if the labor cost is much lower than China, it is impossible to build a competitive factory enterprise and infrastructure.Realize industrial upgrading.

China's core competitiveness is not the population scale and infrastructure, but the governance ability and institutional mechanism.The elites of the United States and Western countries know this, but pretend to be invisible.Without strong governance capabilities, the huge population will become hidden dangers and development obstacles; if there is no advanced institutional mechanism, large -scale and leapfrog infrastructure construction will only be difficult in developing countries in developing countries.Such cases are on the world stage.Strong governance capabilities and advanced institutional mechanisms can not only make us good globalization, but also allow us to make good use of other patterns and trends in the world order of development and changes -our confidence is the source of living water, with core competitivenessChina not only does not refuse the evolution of the situation, but also actively explores changes that can make themselves better and prosperous.

Three kinds of dependent and global life and death

In recent years, some politicians and media in the United States have eager to shout out the globalization of "death" or even "dead", with their own purpose and judgment.Regarding the future of globalization, we can enter from a small incision to analyze this important major topic -if the two largest economies in the world in the world and the strongest political forces in the world, we hope that globalization will continue to "live"Go down, who can still "kill" it?There is no need to say more in China. The question is whether the United States still wants to make it "live".For a period of time, the targeted measures taken by some countries represented by the United States have indeed covered a shadow for the future of globalization, but this does not mean that they intend to have a global cut.Analyzing the direction of a country's action is not through its politician language or short -term movement of the government. The most reliable judgment basis is its actual situation and resources at hand.The United States will continue to go on the road of globalization. The biggest argument is its own dependence on the external world.

Many people hold different views on the degree of foreign dependence on the United States.A country's external dependence can be analyzed from three perspectives: economic dependence, technology dependence, and mechanism dependence.Economic demeanor refers to the need to use overseas resources and market digestion to digest production and capacity digestion; technology depends on the need to use the power of other countries when creating a certain product or developing a certain technology;The restrictions between the text agreements between the state or international organizations and the unwritten rules.The situation in practice is more complicated than paper surfaces. For example, economic dependence and technology dependence sometimes cross -entanglement, and the mechanism will cover economic dependence and technology dependence in some cases.The conclusion is that the United States has a high degree of foreign dependence on the three levels of economy, technology, and mechanism.

(1) Economic dependence

The discourse system about the foreign dependence on the outside world is mainly focused on several key indicators of trade volume and smooth deficit.Many people think that China's foreign trade is huge and surplus, so its own economy has a high degree of foreign dependence.In fact, the degree of foreign dependence judged by the trade amount and the deficit of trading and the deficit is not only inaccurate, but also very different from the facts.

All kinds of weapons in international trade, no matter how complicated the packaging is, summarizes three types of: buyers do not buy, seller does not sell, strong buying and selling.Most of the strong buying and strong sale occur between two countries or organizations with different overall strengths, but there are not many opponents with similar strengths.The United States is a deficit country as a whole in the international trade. In 2021, its trade deficit exceeds $ 1 trillion. The intuitive feeling is that the United States bought the world and is a "big buyer" in international trade.The world is required to be in the United States.Is this really the case?Focusing on the Sino -US game, we take the Sino -US trade as an example.

In 2021, China achieved a trade surplus of more than $ 390 billion in the United States.Some people think that the $ 390 billion is the "hostage" that the United States is in its hands. The United States can threaten China, so China depends on the United States in the trade field.The essence of trade includes commodity exchange, including services. Sino -US trade does not exchange money from two countries, but exchanged goods. Behind these $ 30 billion is the demand for commodity in American society.The United States requires two prerequisites for the use of 390 billion US dollars as weapons, either reduces its own demand for goods -but decreased demand means a reduction in living standards or productivity without revolutionary technological progress;Suppliers -but even if they do not consider cost factors, in many industries, there are no productivity in the world in the world today that can meet the huge needs of the United States, and the United States does not work.In addition, the United States is indeed a deficit country, but it does not mean that it does not exit.The export volume of the United States is huge, and it is not "immune" for the pressure that buyers do not buy.

From this we can see that only the trade volume and the deficit of trading cannot be seen from the country's economy.Judging the core indicators of a country's economy dependence on the country is the fit of the country's productive forces and its own social operation needs.The higher the overall productivity, the stronger the independence of the economy. The productivity of the United States in many cutting -edge areas is the world's first. It is also high to bring its GDP, but it also lacks production resources in many industries related to people's livelihood.Relying on external resources.This economic structure has a strong combat effectiveness in the background of peaceful development as the mainstream, but in a fierce competition environment, crisis is heavy.

This has also enlightened China's future development: we have entered the right track of industrial upgrading. The competitiveness of new areas and large industries represented by new energy vehicles is getting stronger and stronger.Large aircraft, large aircraft carriers, and supercomputers can also make screws.China must not throw away the so -called "low -end" primary industry. There is no low -end concept of any industry, only the primary stage.China does not have to expect to move its own textile factories to Africa and Vietnam. Textile factories can also upgrade technology, and the profit problem brought by labor cost improvement can also be solved by the gathering of production resources -in the past, we rely on we rely on in the past.One thousand socks factories supply the world, we can guarantee in the futureLeave three super factories and smart workshops to cover the world market.To achieve this, the government needs to have a strong ability to directly regulate the market and the economy. This is why it is difficult for the United States to do it, but China can do it.We must not "abolish their martial arts". The government's control of the economy and the market must remain strong, but we can only extend when it is time to shot.With the time of time, China's ability to bring in this area will definitely become more prominent.

(2) Technical Dependence

Some people say that the technology of the United States does not seem to have nothing to do.This cannot be considered wrong, but it ignores the vital point- "can do" and "do" are two completely different concepts.For example, the United States must have the technical ability to make socks, but the sock manufacturing industry cannot develop in the United States.Many people think that since the technology of making socks is not complicated, the United States does not do it because it does not want to do it.This is a talked about soldiers on paper.The reason why the American sock manufacturing industry cannot develop is multi -faceted. In the final analysis, it is not a simple manufacturing technology problem to make money in the United States. To make this industry make money in the United States.The reality is: as long as Americans are still wearing socks, the United States needs to rely on other countries to obtain products; the problem is that the United States is not scarce in this dilemma, but is connected to a film; the key is that the technology caused by non -technical factors is technology.Dependence is often more difficult than solving technical problems itself.

There is another example. Recently, the US technology industry seems to be in a sluggish state. Although the overall unemployment rate is still low, Amazon, Meta (parent company of Facebook), Twitter, Intel, and other technology giants have beenOver the past few months, layoffs have been announced.Many of the companies' stock valuations have fallen by more than 50%over the past year.With the rise of U.S. interest rates, the operating conditions of these technology companies will decline. For many years, the CEOs of large US technology companies have been devoting their energy to new projects that are uncertain.This is like a 52 -year -old man with exaggerated hair color and replacing the pickup with a supercar, which is strange. "And China ’s 4G short video application, 5G virtual world applications, smart cars and other traffic entrance innovations. Application to the United States is still dependent on the Internet era.Based on the infrastructure supporting facilities of 4G and 5G base stations, sensor devices, etc., this cannot be solved in the short term.

(3) Mechanism Dependence

Most of the mechanism depends accompanied by text agreements and unwritten rules.It is generally believed that with strong strength, the United States always lives in the "leadership" in the agreement signed by the agreement and the rules.U.S.In the country's circle, the demand between leaders and members is mutual. As the leaders of many national circles it built by the United States, the greatest demand for members is that these members acknowledge that it is the leader.These circles implement their own will, protect and expand their own interests.Costing for members to gather around, the greater the circle, the higher the cost.When the American strength is unique, it can maintain benefits through this mechanism. However, when facing the strength is comparable to itself, and can provide other solutions and opponents with other solutions and opportunities for their own circles, the cost will exceed expectations.

The United States had experienced this pressure when facing the Soviet Union, but because the Soviet Union itself was also facing the same difficulties, although the United States had cost in terms of mechanism dependence, it did not allow the Soviet Union to take advantage of it.China and the Soviet Union have different essences: China has no self -proclaimed leaders to take up a lot of members to form a cold war pattern of things confrontation with the United States; China's economic system and quality are far from the Soviet Union.The Western economic connection is very close; China is not obsessed with military reserve competitions.Facing China, which is stable, stabilized, and persisted in the stability of its own development, if the United States holds an offensive and curb posture, it is necessary to face the great challenges of the strong demand and cost risk of expanding the circle.The pressure has been shown in many issues related to curbing China, and it will become more heavier with China to achieve its own purposes steadily.

Through the phenomenon, the essence of the US government cannot oppose globalization at the mainstream ideology and policy strategies of the US government. Some political forces and the media have a head -to -top and small actions of globalization.Specific tactics of a major strategy.The purpose of the United States is very clear. It is hoped that according to the comprehensive national strength of Yimao's own and advantageous advantages, to build a more controllable world trading system and globalization pattern. Because China is uncontrollable, it is necessary to exclude China outside or suppress at least.Regarding the closed, the United States has never thought of closing itself. Its dream is to make China isolated under the premise of its own losses.

The "simplicity" means in the game of the Great Power and the "League" advantage

From the perspective of the United States, China can be described as "sin."It is not expected that the United States is quiet in the process of the Chinese nation's great rejuvenation.In the front line of the Sino -US game, we should break through inertia thinking and grasp two keys.

The first, the stronger the strength of the game, the greater the damage to using the "simple means".The things that humans are deeply processed are far less "combat" provided by nature to human beings.In the Russian conflict, under thousands of sanctions in the United States and Western countries, Russia increased by 50%in the first nine months of this year.The mouth is capable, "looking at oil and sighing."Compared with the game of Russia, Europe, Russia, and the United States, the Chinese and American -level levels are much larger. The complex means of reserves in the toolboxes of both sides are rich enough. In this case, it is based on the traditional "traditional traditions such as resources and crops such as resources and crops.The "simplicity" method adopted by the product is actually much more ruthless than the high -tech blockade of the seemingly tall, and as a result, arrows and bullets can be killed.

Taking the chip as an example, the Chinese that enters the right track, as long as it is a person researched, the key breakthrough is only in demand and time accumulation, and the world market is not unique to the United States to master technology."It is impossible to block" it is impossible. If you do not sell it, you must have an awareness to bear economic losses. At the same time, you will face the dilemma of China's own technology breakthrough in the United States.However, the rare earth that manufacture chips only needs to fine -tune the export quota, and the transmitted signals can make a lot of entities on the target national industrial chain "dancing with the wind", and finding alternatives and eliminating the impact requires a large amount of investment and technical transfer, involving complex geographical geographyPolitical issues, the number of processes is annual.

"Simply means" will bring a series of influence on the four -year business politics and short -term politics of the United States. It is not enough to rely on finding alternative suppliers to find rare earths. There are more "rustic" after rare earth.Waiting for the United States.The United States needs to make reforms by epoch -making politicians to "relieve borders" on the national system.History has proven that the birth of a political giant under the US political system relies heavily on the "time to create a hero" and requires extraordinary external events as a catalyst, such as World War I, World War II, Cold War, and Great Depression.For the current United States, Putin and its leadership Russia can not be catalyzed with Russia and Ukraine conflicts, and it is easy to talk about.China has a strong leadership core, powerful strategic determination and governance capabilities, and will not "dozed pillows" to the United States."Simply" means in the future, in the contest of China -US levels, it will always have a huge energy that play a key role.

The second is the endless evolution of the situation, and the power of the "Alliance" is better than the traditional alliance.The author puts forward the "Alliance" here that the alliance means that the national community based on cooperation and exchanges is compared to traditional alliances, although it can also be initiated, but generally decentralized, the basic balance between member states, the basic balance and peace equality, And do not target other countries outside the alliance.In summary, the Alliance countries do things around a certain theme, and the country in the traditional alliance is that a country leads other countries to join in other countries to join and do things around the "owner".The United States to curb the allies to curb China is to use the power of the allies to serve its own purpose. It lobby, rendering, seduced, and coerced the allies. The so -called consciousnessThe statement and values of the values are "curbing the Chinese mission package" sent out by the packaging. The identity of the allies can be called "the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization" or any other organization members, but the essence is the "American League".

Traditional alliances can play a role in the disparity confrontation, such as NATO's interference and even aggression on the South League; when the economic connection between the two parties and the world's countries is relatively weak, it can play a role, such as the US -Soviets and the history of China and the history of China.The Warring States Period hegemony.With the development of the world economy and human society, especially in the game of a large country in China and the United States, traditional alliances have not match the trend of the times.

We take the "Anti -China Alliance" that the United States is trying to build as an example.In terms of Li Li, China insists on the strategic tone of "non -attack", Zhang Jueqiu's banner of leaving differences with defensive counterattacks, and the United States said that the "Chinese threats" that broke the world are always "threats on the mouth" and "threats on the mouth".It may be threatened, which is not enough to allow the allies to cooperate with the United States to truly stage a drama of "Dead Friends".In Yu Li, China has established an economic and trade relations with interoperability with the United States and its allies. It is difficult for the United States to bear the cost of cutting off the economic connection with China.I lost people's hearts, and talked about why they gave their own allies to "go to insurance first before claims."

At the same time, once the Chinese alliance is established on the surface, the United States as an alliance must invest in resources to maintain it, because if a member is hesitant or even withdrawn, the political influence, symbolic intent, and chain effects will be brought about.It is unbearable in the United States.The so -called allies in the United States know this point, and never stops from the "Alliance Lord" to oil the asking price, trying to benefit both ends between China and the United States.This traditional alliance that "is not right", the actual income it can bring is difficult to cover the cost.

China has not yet achieved the phase of anti -overtaking in the United States. It is not necessary to respond to the "anti -Chinese alliance" with the "anti -American alliance" and fall into the Soviet -style monster circle.Strategic platforms such as the “Belt and Road”, initiated and expanded the alliance system of “wrong things”, expanded the circle of friends of common prosperity, so that members of the Alliance members consciously voluntarily and to disrupt the enemy who blew up and affect us.The "Anti -China Alliance" launched a historical track.

The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the general direction of the major issues and collective actions of Chinese society for some time.Facing the challenge, 5,000 years of Huaxia never lost the glamory of the blue knife, and has always been upholding who has established the bone of the city.Standing at the center of historical avenue, the heart of 1.4 billion hearts, the pulse of beating on this hot soil in the past is the motivation and significance of our movement -national rejuvenation is the people.It belongs to the people.

The author Bai Zhongshi is a master's degree in mechanical engineering at the University of Hong Kong.