Source: Nikkei Chinese website
Author: Sichuan hand Ichi
The Japan Economic Research Center released on December 14 that the name of China's name (GDP) will not surpass the United States on December 14.Last year, the center predicted that the Sino -US GDP was reversed in 2033.However, due to the Yu Bo of the prevention and control of the epidemic and the strengthening of the US export control of China, China's economic growth rate will decline.In the long run, the shortage of labor caused by decreased population will also become stumbling blocks.
Recently, the economic growth expectations of 18 countries and regions in 18 countries and regions in Asia and Pacific have been released a few days ago.The Japan Economic Research Center announced in December each year to take into account the latest estimates of the recent policy and economic situation.
In the prediction of 2020 when the spread of crown disease, it was estimated that China initiated normal economicization through the early prevention and control of the epidemic. By 2028, China and the United States will reverse.In the forecast of 2021, the Chinese government's supervision and strengthening of the Chinese government's (information technology) companies will hinder technological innovation and delay the reversal time to 2033.
The latest forecast in 2022 states that China's economic growth rate will go down further.The actual growth rate in 2030 will fall below 3 %, slowing to 2.2 % in 2035.It is basically the same as the United States (1.8 %), which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the value predicted in 2021.The economic scale from the nominal GDP will gradually approach the United States, but by 2035, it will only be 87 % of the United States.
There are two main reasons for China's economic downturn.One is to adopt the rigorous policy of crown diseases such as strict travel restrictions.China released optimization measures on the 7th, but the number of infections in Beijing and other places is increasing.The Japan Economic Research Center predicts that, including overseas exchanges, it is limited to the fact that it will wait until 2025.
The sequelae of the epidemic prevention and control policy also exist.The consumer confidence index issued by the National Bureau of Statistics of China hit the lowest in April in April, which caused economic deterioration in Shanghai, which has caused the lowest.The last October is only the same level.The family's awareness is normalization, and it is not easy to eliminate concerns about the future.
Another reason is the strengthening of the US export control of China.In October, the US Biden government transformed the transaction with Chinese enterprises to the Ministry of Commerce with the cutting -edge semiconductor.At the new Parliament, which opened in January 2023, the Republican Party, who recaptured most of the House of Representatives, will also promote tough policies for China.
The Japan Economic Research Center analyzed that these two factors will lead to the slowdown in China's production efficiency.Under the intensified situation of Taiwan's risks, the "de -China" acceleration of overseas enterprises will further reduce growth in China.
In the long run, the reduction of population will become a stumbling block for China's economy.The latest calculation of the United Nations shows that China's total population has decreased on July 1, 2022.Due to the weakening of rising production efficiency, the shortage of labor has been weakened, "China and the United States will not have a reversal of China and the United States after 2036."
The Chinese government proposed two long -term goals by 2035 and the middle of this century in the party constitution revised in October.The core of the goal in 2035 is to raise the per capita name GDP to the level of medium -developed countries.
Although the specific value is not proposed, it is said to consider Italy and Spain at about 30,000 US dollars.The Japan Economic Research Center predicts that as of 2035, it will reach $ 25,745 (about 3.49 million yen at the current exchange rate).8.6 % compared with the forecast 2 years ago.
The charter of the Communist Party proposed to build a "modern power of socialist modernization" from the economy to the military, but in a critical economic field, the gap with the United States may be difficult to shrink.U.S. export control, epidemic prevention policies, strengthening the supervision of IT enterprises and the adjustment of real estate market adjustments may have negative effects for a long time.
