Author: Huang Zhijin
Source: Hong Kong 01
There are about two weeks left from the US election vote date.According to the polls announced by the Wall Street Journal this week, US President Trump is still behind Biden at least 10 percentage points. Elections debate, judge nomination and Trump's new crowns have not helped to boost Trump's election.
At present, at least 9 million voters have conducted early voting, and Trump, who is backward in election, still hopes that swing voters can vote to him at the last moment as four years ago to help him re -election.In addition, in addition to continuing to attack Biden, Trump can do to fight for votes?For example, how will he continue to play the Chinese card in a limited time?
Under the continuous impact of the new coronary pneumonia's epidemic and economic recession, Trump insisted on playing Chinese cards at the level of epidemic, economy, trade, technology, military, and ideological, and continuously consumed Sino -US relations, and intended to boost the election.Especially at the military level, the US military aircraft and warships frequently entered the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait airspace and waters this year undoubtedly increased the possibility of rubbing guns from the Chinese and American armies.
According to China's official data, in the first half of 2020, US military aircraft activities in the South China Sea have reached more than 2,000 times.Especially since May, the number of Chinese and US military aircraft has increased.Among them, in late July, the US military aircraft arrived near the South China Sea for 12 consecutive days.In August, cross -strait media even reported the news of US military aircraft in Taiwan.Although this kind of news was denied by the Taiwan army, it was enough to highlight the tension of the current Taiwan Strait.
At the same time, the Trump administration has also upgraded diplomatic benefits to Taiwan. After the Minister of Health visited Taiwan, the Minister of Health sent Deputy Secretary of State Defense Taiwan to continue challenging the principle of China.One month before the election, the Trump administration also launched a new military sales case; in the South China Sea, the U.S. State Department publicly elected the border stations and announced that it would not recognize all sovereignty claims in China in the South China Sea dispute.
It is most likely that the current U.S. military is most likely to take military operations or military confrontation, the most likely is the China Sea of China or the Taiwan Strait, not the Middle East.From August to September, Trump promoted to reconcile Israel and neighboring countries, including more than 2,000 people from Iraq at the end of September. The purpose was to pack himself into the founder of the Middle East peace.Therefore, if Trump wants to boost the election through military operations, China will be the biggest target.
Generally speaking, the first term of the United States, whether it is the Republican President or the Democratic President, wants to be re -elected, the first to fight for the economy, followed by medical, immigration and other internal affairs issues, and finally military and diplomacy.This is the case from Ligan to Obama.Lao Bote used the Economic dividend and successfully elected, but when he was re -elected, the dividend gradually disappeared. Even if he made a great job in diplomacy, he failed to re -election.
Compared with these predecessors, Trump's re -election situation is very different.In the context of continuing anti -globalization, the inadequate prevention and control of the epidemic and the decline in the US economy have prompted Trump to have a different approach and change more to help himself with external factors. One of the methods is to exaggerate external threats.
For example, the reason why the former Republican President Xiaobushi was able to re -election is related to his counter -terrorism war.American voters felt the threat of extreme terrorism on US security and had not yet realized the drag on the US economy in war.
The same is true for China.In the eyes of the Trump administration, China is already the biggest threat to the United States in the fields of health, economy, trade, and Guoan, and it has surpassed Russia's threat.Once military frictions occur in the Taiwan Sea or the South China Sea, Trump will inevitably pack it into an external crisis caused by China's threat, and take the opportunity to show tough leadership to enhance his election.As long as there is no large -scale war, but a short -term conflict, anti -war American voters may also change to him at the last moment.
However, the uncertainty of this decision is high and the risk is high.On the one hand, the Chinese military has maintained the greatest degree of restraint and avoid being touched by porcelain; on the other hand, it can be seen that on the other hand, it can be seen that the US military leadership also exists with China.The subjective willingness to control the crisis and avoid the situation of losing control.
In addition, unlike confrontation in the fields of economy, trade, technology, and ideology, the Chinese and American military contradictions have not yet reached an irreconcilable point, and the two sides have no atmosphere and nodes of fermentation of military crisis.The two big powers have no willingness to make a decision in the military.
The most important thing is that Trump's Chinese card has been played for half a year. It seems that the effect is average, indicating that the effectiveness of diplomatic cards is limited.The focus of voters is still economic and epidemic, and then it is also issues such as immigration and medical care.If Trump wants to take risks and attract voters' attention by provoking the military conflict of China, it is difficult for his team to be sure to ensure that his own interests are not lost in a limited time.
