Middle Times Society: Who can afford the cross -strait sausage game who can play

Zhongshi Society

Tsai Ing -wen's double ten speeches are particularly low -key, emphasizing that it will not advance in cross -strait relations, and said that maintaining stability is the common interest of cross -strait, and it is the common responsibility of both sides.Willing to promote meaningful dialogue.Tsai Ing -wen's basic position has not changed in the past five years, but this interpretation of Beijing this time is very different from 5 years ago.

Although the Beijing government has not announced Taiwan independence, it has adopted a gradual strategy of cutting sausage to gradually realize Taiwan independence. In addition, the US -China confrontation factors have made the mainland awareness of the future of Taiwan.It is expected that Taiwan will bear more pressure.

However, cross -strait relations will not collapse for the time being. As the Legislative President You Xi said, the possibility of war is not high, but this does not mean that Beijing is helpless to the Cai government.Recently, main planes have frequently crossed the central line of the Straits, and Taiwan has gradually increased the confrontation attitude. Earlier, it was monitored by air patrols and emergency take -off troops. It also implemented radio warnings. Recently, it began to track the monitoring of air -to -missiles.The physical and mental stress of the pilot and the logistical maintenance and supply of related military reserve have risen straight.Minister of Defense Yan Defa pointed out last week that Taiwan's military aircraft have dispatched nearly 3,000 secondary supervisors and interceptions, costing about 25.5 billion yuan.It can be expected that cross -strait military confrontation will be a long -term military reserve competition and power consumption.

The knife in Taiwan borrows from the United States

The Taiwan Strait is not only a war -consuming war, but Beijing is also telling the Cai government that he will also start playing with sausage strategies, and he will cut faster and fierce.The central line of the Strait is not a boundary formed by treaties, agreements, or the restraint of international law, but formed by historical, powerful factors and tacit understanding.During the storm of the two countries and one side, the mainland had intended to break the tacit understanding with strength, but after the storm calmed down, the tacit state was recovered.

Breaking the boundaries formed by this tacit understanding may not lead to war, because they are unwilling to turn on the first shot on both sides of the strait, but no one will concession. Finally, the strength determines whether the middle line exists.On the basis of the 1992 consensus on the Malaysian government, the Malaysian government was respected by land in the 1992 consensus. The central line was respected by the land. Now it has lost the common foundation of the 1992 consensus. The mainland claims that there is no strait midline.

It is generally believed that the Democratic Progressive Party was playing with sausage games. After the Cai government took office in 2016, it started to cut cross -strait relations. After 2019, it cooperated with the US -made strategy in the United States.In the eyes of the mainland, it is almost the same as maintaining the status quo and goodwill as a amulet for the independence of the sausage.U.S. high -level officials have visited Taiwan and the United States Ambassador to the United Nations declares that it will help Taiwan to return to the United Alliance and the military purchase case that has been greatly improved in quality, etc., and is touched the Beijing Red Line.

Judging from the frequent military exercises and repeatedly invading military actions such as the central line, the mainland has also begun to cut the sausages little by little to counter the DPP's actions.The Tsai government relies on the relationship with the United States. Once the United States slows down its strategy, the DPP's sausage in the past may be doubled, but the sausage cut from Beijing will bite tightly in their mouths, unless they take the initiative to spit out,Otherwise no one can take it.Who is comparing the sausage game who is more powerful and whose swordsmanship is a hard and powerful game. Judging from the fact that the two -strait economy and military comparison are 20 times different.To be repaid; the knife of the mainland is its own, completely fucking itself.

Playing sausage games on both sides of the strait, because both sides know each other's bottom line. It is a martial arts for Taiwan. For Beijing, it is Taiwan independence. As long as they do not touch each other's bottom line, the war will not erupt for the time being.But for Taiwan, although the sausage game that falls to the United States, although it does not fight, does it really hurt Taiwan's safety?Looking at the DPP's position, can this game really cut out the results of Taiwan independence?

The United States will not touch the Taiwan independence red line

In fact, the recent American attitude seems to have given these two issues a great denial.Secretary of State Pompeo reiterates the policy of the first Chinese China; Has, the president of the US Foreign Relations Association, which advocates the clarification of the US policy in Taiwan, pointed out that the United States must not support Taiwan independence and must not give a check in Taiwan. If Taiwan announced its independence, cross -straitIn the crisis, he did not think that the United States would start commitment or assistance.In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, Prich, the commander of the Pacific Command of the United States, recently revealed that although the United States sent ships to coordinate defense at that time, it also warned that Taiwan could not act lightly. The US military was to prevent the situation from worsening and not let Taiwan do whatever they wanted.

Even if the DPP claims to have the support of the United States and can play sausage games, the United States will not let Taiwan touches the red line of Taiwan.No matter how much sausage is cut, it is impossible to achieve Taiwan independence, what is the significance of sacrificing the sacrifice of cross -strait stability and Taiwan's safety at the cost of Taiwan?It is worth pondering Tsai Ing -wen and all the people of Taiwan.