Author: Zhu Yunpeng
Less than 20 days before the US presidential election, what is the chance of Trump's re -election?What is the election of Biden?Many nationwide polls remind the results.However, for the United States, national polls are not applicable.Indirect elections in the United States are not directly elected by voters, but the president of the electoral votes of various states; except for two small states, wins all other places to win all, that is, a candidate won the state.No matter how much you win, all the voters in the state are voted for this person.Therefore, people with high national polls are not necessarily elected, just like Hillary of that year.
Many states in the United States support the position of single political parties, which remain unchanged for a long time. The color is red (representing the support of the Republican Party) or the blue (representing the Democratic Party). It is difficult to shake. At present, the polls are also showing this.Other states have changed in the past, or the gap between the current polls is small, which is called a decisive battle state.
According to the latest polls, the gap between the two parties is less than 10 percentage points, and the election votes are picked out of no less than 6, and there are 13 states in total.However, in a closer look, in these 13 states, several of them are states that have long supported a single party. At present, although the two sides are less than 10 percentage points, the direction is still the same as the past. It is difficult to believe that it will become the sky.This contains Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, South Card, Texas (the above is red), and Minnesota (blue).Therefore, only 7 states are left from 13 states.Six of them were re -elected to Obama in 2012, but in 2016, they were transferred to Erhua, Wisconsin (Weizhou), Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania (Pennsylvania) in the central and western regions of Trump, and Pennsylvania (Pennsylvania), and Pennsylvania (Pennsylvania), andFlorida (referred to as Florida) in the southeast corner; one is North Carolina.
Thirty4 votes for Trump's election in 2016 and deducted the ticket he got from these 7 states last time. The answer was 190. This is Trump's electoral iron ticket.He needs 270 votes to be re -elected, so there are 80 differences.The results of these 7 states determine whether he can get these 80 election votes.
In these 7 states, there are two first -class theater, Florida and Pennsylvania.In Florida, 96%of voters who pre -elected polls in the last election, while Trump won 4 percentage points. This time, more than 98%. At present, Bayeng won 4 percentage points.That's why Trump was in a hurry to go to Florida, although he had just recovered, and he went to the state not long ago.In 7 states, Florida is the largest, with 29 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is not small, there are 20 electoral votes.Before the last election, only 86%of the voters stated that Hillary won 6 percentage points; the voting results Hillary got the votes similar to the pre -election poll, but Trump had 8 percentage points more than the pre -election poll. At present, the state is currently in the state.In polls, Biden led two percentage points.However, this time is a bit different, and the statement has reached 92%.In this case, Trump and Biden will inevitably take the state as the top priority.
Among the next 5 states, Iowa's election campaigns were fierce, and polls tied, but they were very small. There were only 6 electoral votes.Michigan and Weizhou, Biden reached more than 7 percentage points, and the two states selected the governor of the Democratic Party in the period two years ago. Trump is difficult to come over.With these three, there are two states, Ohio and North Carolina.
There are 18 election votes in Ohio. At present, the polls are a percentage point.The last time I was elected in this state, Trump won 7 percentage points in Hillary, and the results were not much worse, but the previous statement was 85%before the last election, and this time it was 89%.In the past, Ohio supported the Democratic Party for a long time, but in 2016, there may be many invisible supporters of Trump, so he will definitely try his best to fight for this state.
The last soldier must be the North Carolina, with 15 votes votes.The pre -selection of polls was 88%before the last election, Trump and Hillary were tied; the result of the election Trump won the 3.6 percentage point of Hillary; it can be seen that Trump will also have some invisible supporters here.The pre -election statement reached 95%, and Biden Xiaoying was a percentage point.This can also be regarded as a traditional south state. Trump can't afford to lose it, and he will definitely work hard.
Of course, the economic and related epidemic conditions are also a factor affecting the election.The unemployment rate has gradually dropped from 14.7%of the peak to 7.9%, but the 3.5%before the outbreak still has a significant gap, and the second wave of emergency rescue plans have not yet come down.Diagnose numbers in a single day have re -rising trends in Florida and Pennsylvania, and the situation is severe, but the mortality rate of the two states continues to decline.
As in the crushing and reconstruction of the new American dream, the policies of different political parties in the United States are common, but there are also significant differences. The latter will form a difference in future evolution.situation.The 7 states mentioned above, especially the most critical of the four most critical states, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina, and their voters will determine the future of the United States and the world.
(The author is a lecture professor at the College of Data Management at the University of Soochow University, a former administrative member of the Executive Yuan)
