On September 16, 2020, the Japanese Tyeyo government came to power.Tan Yiwei has been served as the Chief of the official house of the Abe of the Abe (Cabinet Secretary -General) for nearly eight years, so the Liberal Democratic Party ’s parliament and party members will certainly hope that he will inherit the former government's policy.Judging from the list of cabinet and the party's personnel, the great body of Sugi Yiyi and Abe are in the same vein.
However, the Prime Minister Secretary of the Ministry of Economics, Trade and Industry, who was reused by Abe, was transferred to the cabinet to participate in his post. It is expected that his impact on the government in the Sugiwei government will not have great influence on internal and external policies.In this way, the policy determination of the Prime Minister's residence will certainly change, especially such as foreign diplomacy, and the secretary will change in a pivotal field.
At this point, Japan's policy on China will also change.Especially in the third countries promoted in Japan and China, the intention of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has played a great role. What impact the personnel of these secretaries will bring about the impact must continue to pay attention.However, the retention of the second -order Junbo of the Liberal Democratic Party also implied that the Abe government has always attached importance to the China -centered China policy and will be inherited.
Putting the personnel issues around the Prime Minister on the side, there are several huge policy issues for China.
First of all, how to deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping as a guest to visit Japan, what issues need to be discussed at that time.Especially before visiting Japan, Xi Jinping is very likely to visit South Korea. China may consider the confrontation between the United States and China, and in some way to express the relationship with Japan.However, on territorial issues and the East China Sea issues, tough measures are expected to continue in the future, and we cannot just pay attention to economic issues.
In addition, the fifth government documents in China and Japan, which often become topics, also need a certain policy.It can be judged that China will establish bilateral relations based on the current status of Japan -China relations, that is, China is three times that of Japan in terms of economic strength, and it will also be based on military security protection. ThereforeNew Japanese -China relations framework.
Japan may want to dial the time to the previous orbit from 2008 to 2010 before the relationship was deteriorated from 2008 to 2010.However, from the judgment of the relationship, the Japanese side may not be as expected.Conversely, China is not completely able to pay as expected.How the two countries find a common understanding and interests of the world and make practical judgments will become the focus.
Second, the government needs to formulate policies on how to deal with the opposition of the United States and China.The opposite of the United States and China began to extend from economic (tariffs) to technology. In July, US Secretary of State Feng Paive has clearly stated that it has been upgraded to the level of value ideology.
So how should Japan deal with?Of course, there are many answers, there can be ambiguous strategies, or they can cooperate with other allies, democratic countries or regions, to respond to the confrontation between the United States and China with the group situation, and do not turn the situation into a zero -sum game.However, no matter what policy is taken, how can the Sugani government respond to the opposite situation of the United States and China, even individual solutions should be formulated in advance.
In addition, it can be predicted that in East Asia, Taiwan will become the focus of opposition between the United States and China.How to look at Taiwan -related issues is also a major issue facing the Guan Yiyi government.At this point, Shimbang, the brother of the former Prime Minister Shinzo, who has a deep channel with Taiwan, has attracted much attention as the new National Defense Minister.
The author is a professor at the University of Tokyo
