Author: Tao Zai Pu
The President of the Chicago Global Affairs Committee of the United States Independence Think Tank, Dared, wrote at the Chicago Forum on the 8th that whether both Beijing and Taipei are unilaterally changed the status quo, whether it is through force or declaration of independence.Dared said that according to Rand's script, the United States will lose the GETS ASS HANDED to IT.
The so-called Rand Corporation's script in Darer actually refers to the four hundred pages of the company's 14-page report to report the US-China Milital ScoreCard.Score card.The military scoring card is known as ten, and the last one is not a self -confidence analysis of the card.Each card shows the relative strength of the United States and China in a particular combat field. These fields are Air Force, Navy, Space, Internet, and Nuclear Martial Arts.
The scoring card is a comparison of the time series with seven years (1996, 2003, 2017 and 2017), and use five different colors to represent different comparative levels.The so -called advantage means that one party can achieve the main goal within a certain period of time (a few weeks).
Rand's scoring card shows that the US advantage in the Taiwan Strait is gradually disappearing. In 1996, there were six dominant cards in the United States in the nine cards, and only four left in 2003.In 2017, there were only three US advantages (online operations, combating the PLA fleet and missiles to attack Chinese bases), but the two most critical cards in Taiwan's situation in the United States, the most critical of the situation in Taiwan: One is the one -point scoring card (the ability of the PLA to attack the Air Force Base) The other is No. 5 (the PLA's anti -water surface combat capability).Dald's worries were not only there. He noticed that Rand Ji Division was only in 2017. In the past three years, it has not been included in the United States.
The US -China military scoring card has caused two major impacts: one is the impact on taboos. For a long time, the military issues that the military is most reluctant to face can be kept for a few weeks.Another major impact is the movement of the war curve.The mutation theory of French mathematician Tom Tim more than forty years ago changed the norm of war predictions. Subsequently, Ziman constructed a dual model that threatened and cost more than ordinary people to find a scientific basis for war.
Ziman said that the seesaw of the war is a threat, such as the military budget and military base, and the other end is the price, such as the damage of the number of deaths and resources;The chances of peace will increase.The more complicated situation is what happened if the threat of war and the cost of war increased at the same time?Ziman said that the situation would change. An accidental factor could cause wolf smoke, or an accidental factor that made the mastrupted war into jade.Isn't this the case in 1962, the Cuban missile crisis in the United States and Soviet Union?
The increase in the scoring card indicates that the relatively reduced cost of the war moves the curve to the war side. Therefore, Rand's US -China military scoring card implies that the possibility of our Taiwan Strait War is increasing, and the opportunity for the US military to lose is also rising.In this environment, why does Taiwan keep tilting to the United States in an all -round way?The grandson's art of war, it is better to know, but not to do it!
The author is former member of the Taiwan MAC (Taoyuan City)
