He Kai: Regardless of Trump or Biden, the basic direction of the United States' diplomacy in China in the future has been determined. Therefore, China should consider how to achieve unchanged diplomacy.
On October 12, Wang Jiangyu, a professor at the School of Law, Hong Kong University, published an article on FT Chinese website. If Trump's defeat will affect Sino -US relations, if Trump is defeated, it will be conducive to Sino -US relations and the world.This point of view does make some reason.But the author believes that from the perspective of international relations, it is not important to Trump.
A popular point of view believes that Trump's stage is the main reason for the deterioration of Sino -US relations.However, in fact, the United States had implemented the Asian rebalancing policy as early as the Obama period. The essence is to regard China as a strategic opponent. By strengthening the cooperation with the United States in Asia and regional security partners, it checks the rise of China.After Trump came to power, he launched a trade war and scientific and technological war against China, and promoted the development of security dialogues in the four countries in the direction of NATO. In recent, it has launched a new cold war on China.The continuous deterioration of Sino -US relations.As the highest leader and decision -making of the United States, Trump's role in China's policies does not be ignored.
However, structural contradictions between China and the United States are the main causes of Sino -US confrontation.This structural contradiction is the unavoidable conflict between the rising country and the existing hegemonic country, or even war.This is why the United States Republican and Democrats seem to be on the left side. Only the exception to the China policy is the exception. The two parties are not only unprecedented, but also to see who is harder to China.This is not difficult to see from the campaign program of the Democratic Presidential candidate Biden.Therefore, whether it is Trump or Bayeng elected, the future relationship between China and the United States will be based on confrontation and competition.
Of course, some people will say that Trump's policy is changing. He is reversed and does not play cards according to common sense. It often leads to China in diplomacy and has a feeling of being busy to cope and having hands.In contrast, Biden seems to continue to embrace existing international order, return to multilateralism, and start in orderly competition with China.Although this competition may be fierce, it seems that the challenges and harm to Chinese diplomacy are not as fierce as Trump.
The biggest question of this view is whether the success of Chinese diplomacy is directly pinned on the US policy to China.In China and the United States, China should not expect any opponents, or hope that the opponent will abide by the so -called international rules.If Trump has achieved any success in the diplomacy and trade war against China, it actually reflects China's diplomatic weakness and deficiencies.Rather than sending the hope that Yu Biden came to power, the United States will change the policy of China. It is better to find diplomatic and economic shortcomings as soon as possible.
To a certain extent, the emergence of Trump has caused Chinese diplomacy to experience a severe test, but also objectively provides many opportunities for Chinese diplomacy.As some Political commentators in the United States pointed out, the U.S.'s first policy pursued by Trump has greatly weakened and hurts the international status and soft power of the United States.If we think of the competition between China and the United States as a zero -sum game, then Trump's continuous self -harm to the United States will indirectly help China's rise.But this is not to say that China can do nothing, and can enjoy it and enjoy the diplomatic dividend brought by Trump's self -harm.
At the beginning of October, the 14 developed polls released by the Pew Research Center in the United States showed that the international image of China and the United States has decreased significantly.This shows that Trump's diplomacy failure will not directly bring any benefits to Chinese diplomacy, and will not even increase China's popularity in the world.Therefore, relevant Chinese departments and scholars need to study carefully how to prevent competition in the competition in China and the United States.If Chinese diplomats have a fast tongue, they have been brought into the bottom line by some American politicians to scold and blame each other. In the end, it will not only damage the international image of Chinese diplomacy, but also the soft power of the entire country.
Whether it is Trump's re -election or Biden can be elected, the basic direction of US diplomacy in China has been determined in the future.
Therefore, China should consider how to achieve unchanged changes in diplomacy.One of the characteristics of Trump diplomacy is change and impermanence. Sometimes enemy friends do not distinguish, and there is no bottom line for short -term benefits.If this is why Trump's diplomatic failure, then China should consider how to fully learn lessons and go back to Trump's foreign policy.China needs to increase diplomatic stability, expand the circle of friends, reduce hostile forces, enhance the sense of diplomacy, adhere to the moral bottom line, and look at the long -term strategic direction, not short -term interests.
In response to the recent frequent attack on the Trump administration, in addition to insisting on not fighting, China should not be brought into the new cold war that is based on ideological confrontation, and should also consider how to actively resolve the pressure on ideology.For example, China can actively summon the spirit of non -alliance, stand with other third world powers, oppose dividing the world with ideology, and emphasize that different politics and countries can live peacefully together.In addition, China should insist on opening up, continuously improve the domestic investment environment, attract foreign investment, and deepen China's economic, trade and cultural connection and exchanges.In this way, the United States and other countries can see that if they try to decompose with China, they will lose their own interests and harm their own interests.
Finally, the diplomacy of each country is the extension of domestic strength.The results of China and the United States in the future of diplomacy may depend more on the comparison of domestic politics and economic strength of the two countries, rather than simply diplomatic skills.Therefore, with Trump's re -election or Beiden election, it is beneficial to China. Chinese scholars and policy decision -making groups should also actively consider how to continue to deepen reform and opening up and improving people's livelihood in China.A truly rising China should be reflected in the improvement of national quality, the development of education level, the Kangfu of the people's lives, and the harmony of the environmental society.
Is Trump? In fact, it is not important to China.
(Note: He Kai, the Asian Research Institute and Governance and Public Policy Center of the University of Greefis, Australia, professor of international relations. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
