The Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan has frequently disturbed Taiwan in recent mainland fighters, and mostly appeared in the Southwest Airships near Dongsha. It has made a judgment of the CCP ’s establishment of the South China Sea Air Defense identification zone.In fact, the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense pays attention to the South China Sea in the distance, but ignores the crisis that is brewing in front of them.Compared with the situation of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, the possibility of setting up the Taiwan Strait Air Defense Recognition Zone may be higher than that of the establishment of the South China Sea Air Defense identification zone.
First of all, the main reason for the mainland to set up the South China Sea Air Defense Recognition Zone is the complicated factors involved, including the lessons and lessons of the East China Sea Air Defense identification zone, the sovereignty of the South China Sea Territory Multi -Nations, the islands and reefs of various countries are difficult to jurisdiction over the jurisdiction of the airspace, the South China SeaThe code of conduct is about to be signed, many nations outside the territory challenge the right to navigation, and the strong response to the expected great country are in Beijing's decision -making computing.At present, it is the autumn of events and outside, and the South China Sea Air Defense identification area is born at this time, and the timing is obviously inappropriate.
Secondly, the Beijing Viewing Bay and Mainland China are inseparable, but the situation of Taiwan and the United States jointly fights for the anti -landing situation., To play with Chinese cards to fight for political chips, they all forced Beijing to think about it.Beijing currently responds to the number of machine ships around the platform, but the effect is obviously limited.The establishment of the Taiwan Strait Air Defense Recognition Zone can be classified as the ultimate as a means close to non -armed conflicts, and it is also likely to become a policy option in Beijing's next step in Taiwan.
Third, from the historical experience and cross -strait interactive thinking, the intention of setting up the Taiwan Strait Air Defense identification zone clearly exists.In 2013, the East China Sea Air Defense Recognition Zone was deployed in 2013, mainly due to anti -US and Japanese army for a long time to reach the southeast coastal reconnaissance. In addition, the Diaoyutai territorial sovereign disputes, China ’s strokes are deliberately overlapped with the Japanese air defense identification zone.strong.
The Republic of China air defense identification zone was located in 1953, covering Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong.There is no international law effect on the air defense identification zone. Now Beijing does not recognize the central line of the Strait. Pilots on both sides of the strait shouted at close range, and the friction conflicts between the two sides are getting a lot.If cross -strait relations continue to deteriorate, Beijing imitates the methods of the day of Japan, and the deployment of the Taiwan Strait Air Defense identification zone is only sooner or later.
At the end of September 2018, near Nanxun Reef in the Nansha Islands, the Lanzhou missile destroyer in the mainland approached the US ship, which was only 41 meters apart.Now the bayonet on both sides of the strait may gradually become a daily life over the Taiwan Strait.This scene will appear in the west coast of Taiwan in the future or includes the waters of the east coast. It will look at the strategic wisdom and cultivation of the Beijing authorities.
There is no far -sightedness, and there must be near -worrying.To avoid conflict and war, the first two sides of the strait need to reduce hostility with wisdom and increase goodwill.
(Author: Hu Ruizhou, Deputy Director of Taiwan Security Research Center)
