Liu Jincai
Although China is a large agricultural country, it is a non -agricultural power. The per capita effective cultivated land area is lower than the international average level. It has 7%of effective arable land and maintains up to 20%of the population in the world.The top priority.
The Chinese government claims that China is in the history of the best food security situation in history.However, China's self -sufficiency rate has always been lower than the standard value of safety, leading to a large number of imported grain crops; especially in 2020, China's food safety is affected by the coronary virus epidemic and flood floods, locusts and other insect pests, which shows the shortage of food supply.
In uniqueness, on July 22, Chinese President Xi Jinping went to Jilin Province to investigate to care about food production and safety, that is, he called for the protection of food safety in a prominent position.On August 11th, Xi Jinping called on the public to save dietary diet. After not wasted for food, it caused external doubts whether Chinese food security faced the dilemma of crisis.However, whether this is a way to reflect China's peace of mind, or to highlight the dilemma of China's food security, savings are still necessary policy initiative and social virtue.
First of all, China's food security alert message is related to the initiative of anti -corrosion to promote integrity.Within 20 days before and after, Xi Jinping's two instructions on food safety shows that China's food supply has been insufficient.Xi Jinping proposed to stop the waste of food, starting from national machines to civil society, and carried out a new life campaign to rectify greed and disconneys.
According to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2020, about 130 million tons of food will occur in China by 2025.Therefore, Xi Jinping's initiative to save diet has the dual meaning of its political society. The purpose is not only to reduce the uncertain factors that endanger the safety of food; but also echo the movement of the anti -corruption and integrity movement, and to eradicate the miniature corruption around the peopleEssence
China's grain security policy, based on the basic self -sufficiency policy of food, through strengthening grain support policies, strict protection of grain production resources, sound food reserves system, food in the hands, psychological psychology, and national strategies that are safe and stable people's hearts.Key industries, etc., constitute the concept and pattern of food security with Chinese characteristics.The Chinese government set food security as an important basis for national security. In October 2019, the State Council published a white paper for food security, claiming that Chinese grain supply was basically self -sufficient and rations were absolutely safe.
Secondly, the Chinese government will list the main grains with the standard of self -sufficiency rate, which proves that the safety of food is safe, confuses the concept of grain and main food, and insufficient persuasion.From the Chinese government announced the long -term and long -term planning outline of food safety in 2008 (2008 to 2020), setting the grain safety goals has not been fully achieved.
Consumption demand is estimated that the annual consumption of food per person in 2020 reached 395 kg, the total demand reached 570 million metric tons, and the grain self -sufficient rate was maintained at more than 95%.It was maintained at 1.8 billion acres in 2020.Among these two major indicators, the self -sufficiency rate of grain was not reached. In 2018, the relevant departments declared that the self -sufficiency rate of wheat, rice and corn was about 95%.
In 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics of China carried out the current status and forecast data analysis of China's grain self -sufficiency rate. It has achieved the goal of not less than 95%of the grain grain in the white paper in China in 1996.90%of self -sufficiency.
It is true that the self -sufficiency rate of Chinese grain and grain meets the safety goals of grain planning. The self -sufficiency rate of rice and wheat is more than 100%, and the self -sufficiency rate of corn is more than 95%.However, the overall grain self -sufficiency rate has fallen to about 82.3%in 2017, with 100.9%grain self -sufficiency rate in 2005 as the watershed, declined year by year to 90.21%in 2010 and 87.09%in 2014.The self -sufficiency rate of grain has declined year by year. Although the main grains of wheat, rice and corn meet the standards, the imports of Chinese soybeans in 2019 are 88.51 million tons, and the self -sufficient rate is less than 15%.
Furthermore, whether China is facing a food crisis or supply, in the early 1990s, American scholar Brown proposed to who to support China; in 1996, the Chinese government announced a positive response from China's grain problems.In 2019, China ’s grain safety white paper was announced again, revealing that important indicators in the grain field have exceeded 650 million tons: that is, since 2015, the total grain output has stabilized more than 650 million tons, and the standard grain warehouse warehouse capacity of 2018 is 6770 million tons.
China ’s food imports are more than 100 million tons each year, accounting for a quarter of global food trade, and it is the largest importer in the world.The Global Food Safety Index announced by the Economist Magazine shows that China has slipped from the 42nd in 2013 to the 46th place in 2018, and the grain safety issue has gradually revealed.
From 2016, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued the overall planning outline of the national land use (2006 MDASH; 2020) adjustment plan claims that the Chinese government ensures that the national arable land preservation will be more than 1.865 billion mu by 2020, and the protection area of basic farmland is more than 1.546 billion mu or more acres.EssenceIn 2009, the area of agricultural planting increased from about 2.3 billion mu to about 2.5 billion acres in 2018. From the perspective of the protection of agricultural arable land, there seems to be no crisis of decreased effective cultivated land area.
However, in 2018, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued a notice of comprehensively implementing the special protection of permanent basic farmland, which was fully called to stop across provincial regions to supplement cultivated land, and modified the 1.8 billion cultivated red line to 1.55 billion acres of permanent basic farmland.If the real situation is 1.55 billion mu of food production of permanent basic farmland, the reduction of basic farmland will lead to insufficient food supply, and it must rely on the international market.
Finally, changes in agricultural structure will rely more on food imports.In September 2020, the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued a report on rural development in China, claiming that by the end of the 14th (2021 to 2025) period, China will likely produce 130 million tons of grain gap. Even if the grains include three main grains, the gap is about aboutIt is 25 million tons.At the same time, the report predicts that in 2025, as the urbanization rate reaches 65.5%, it is estimated that the new rural transfer population will be more than 80 million.In other words, as the urbanization rate continues to increase, it is estimated that the proportion of agricultural employment will drop to 20%, while the elderly population in the countryside reaches 25.3%and nearly 124 million.
Due to the increase in urbanization in China, the changes in agricultural structure and the decrease in rural employees may reduce food production.In particular, the structural issue of agricultural has achieved results in the aspects of the 13th Five -Year Plan to ensure the safety of food safety and promote agricultural transformation and upgrading; however, the enthusiasm of farmers' grain planting has decreased, and aging is becoming more serious, resulting in the difficulty of continuous income increase.
Although China's natural disasters are still frequent in 2020, the official stated that the total output of summer grain still reached a historical high, and summer grain accounts for about one -quarter of the total amount of food; as for autumn grain, it accounts for three -quarters of them.The output may decrease.At present, the purchase volume of local governments has decreased, and grain import data in the first half of 2020 has increased significantly.In the future, China's grain production is due to the increase in urbanization rate, the problem of the elderly in the population of the population, and the natural disasters such as Hongye and insect pests, which may lead to a reduction in yield and have hidden food security concerns.
The author is Taiwan Foguang University
Assistant professor of the Department of Public Affairs
Due to the increase in urbanization in China, the changes in agricultural structure and the decrease in rural employees may reduce food production.In particular, the structural issue of agricultural has achieved results in the aspects of the 13th Five -Year Plan to ensure the safety of food safety and promote agricultural transformation and upgrading; however, the enthusiasm of farmers' grain planting has decreased, and aging is becoming more serious, resulting in the difficulty of continuous income increase.
