The Afghan government delegation and the Taliban delegation officially launched negotiations in the capital of Qatar.From the current point of view, Afghanistan's peaceful negotiations still face a series of difficulties, including internal differences within the Afghan government, a swinging attitude of Afghanistan Taliban, and different status identity.
It is difficult for peaceful negotiations to reach a complete structure about the future of Afghanistan in the short term. The core and possible results of this round of negotiations are the ceasefire agreement to reach the domestic political and military factions in Afghanistan.
The U.S. military withdrawal forced Atta to talk to
The evacuation of the United States from Afghanistan is an important background for the peaceful negotiations between the Afghan government and Taliban.According to the agreement signed by the United States and Taliban in February 2020, the United States will completely withdraw Afghanistan in 2021.There are two direct consequences between the peaceful negotiations between the United States and Taliban.On the one hand, the evacuation of the US military has become a foregone conclusion, which means that the Afghan government needs to maintain national stability and security through various methods.Therefore, talking and communicating with Taliban has become an important choice for the Afghan government.
On the other hand, the communication between the United States and the Taliban means that relations with the United States and Taliban have achieved breakthroughs.For a long time, the United States has regarded the Taliban as a terrorist organization, and the Taliban regards the United States as an invader.With the signing of the peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban, the two parties also achieved legalization to a certain extent.The negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban also cleared the legal obstacles.
The evacuation of the United States from Afghanistan is actually an inevitable result of the failure of the US policy.In 2001, the United States sent troops in Afghanistan to achieve the reconstruction of Afghanistan's political forces through military means.The United States believes that Afghanistan's traditional political architecture characterized by tribal and ethnic differences is a hotbed that breeds extremism and terrorism.The United States is confident that the political system of American democratic and political construction will help Afghanistan to restore peace.
However, the United States' ideas have not been realized.Military, the United States has not fully controlled the situation in Afghanistan, and Taliban still has a strong influence in southern Afghanistan.Although the United States and its allies in Afghanistan have reached 100,000 when they have the highest strength, it is still difficult to fully control all regions. Under the cooperation of the Afghan government forces, it is difficult to touch and monitor major cities and key junits in the southern region.Essence
Politically, the Afghan government has inherited the historically faction MDash; ethnic cracks, local power factions, and the opposition between the central government, and the faction struggle between the central government, the situation is still very severe, and it is difficult for national political forces to be truly unified.Economically, Afghanistan's economic reconstruction is difficult, and drugs, poverty, and corruption still plague the development and reconstruction of Afghanistan.Against this background, the United States has been unable to continue to bear for nearly 20 years of garrison and help, so he chose to evacuate.
In this negotiation, the Afghan government sent a tolerant delegation consisting of 21 governments and social people, led by former director of the National Security Agency Mohammad Stanekzai.Muhammad is a close confidence of Afghanistan President Gani. He has served as the Afghan government's intelligence minister and Minister of Defense. He has been interacting with Taliban and Afghanistan for a long time. He is very familiar with the affairs of Taliban.After 2009, Muhammad was the chairman of the High -level Peace Commission negotiating with Taliban for a long time, and was directly responsible for contacting Taliban.
Members of the Afghan government's negotiating team are composed of some major domestic warlords and local forces and their representatives.For example, as a presidential adviser to Afghanistan and the local strength of Northeast Afghanistan, Mittrab; Batur, the son of Dustam, northern Afghanistan; the daughter of Akhmad, the female founder of the Afghan Red Cross;The son -in -law of the old warlord Wichel, the old warlord of Afghanistan, and Gaishart, the leader of the Afghan Islamic Party, etc.Some social opinions, such as the famous Afghan women Fazia, are also among the diplomatic negotiation teams.
Afghanistan's negotiation team is still influenced by the central government's power disputes.Based on the power sharing agreement of Gani and Obdullah Abdullah in May 2020 with the leaders of the opposition and the former chief executive of the Afghan government, the negotiation affairs of Taliban should be fully responsible for the negotiation affairs of Taliban; but in reality,At the level, the Afghanistan negotiation team, especially the senior peace committee members responsible for supervising Afghanistan negotiation affairs, was formed by Gani and the presidential order on August 29.
Abdullah, former President Karzy and others were very dissatisfied with the candidates for the Gani intervention committee.At the same time, Guni still firmly controls the decision -making power of negotiations.Ham Dura, the national security adviser of the Gani government, demanded that the final decision -making power should be made by President Gani.
Taliban's attitude is still tough
From the public news reports, the main members of the Taliban's negotiation team have strong conservative attributes, so it is difficult to make huge concessions in the negotiations.The head of the Taliban delegation is the Islamic law scholar Sheikh Abdul Hakim, which shows the important impact of Taliban's Islamic political philosophy on political practice.
Mullah Shirin Akhund with a religious background also appeared in the negotiating team, and he was a consultant to the founder of Taliban Omar.In addition, Anas Haqqani, the representative of the Taliban's internal military hardship Hakani, Hakani commander, also appeared in the negotiating team.These personnel show the conservative and tough attitude of the Taliban's negotiation team, and also indicate that Taliban will be difficult to make key concessions in future negotiations.
A comprehensive peace agreement is difficult to achieve in the short term.In view of the tough attributes of the Taliban negotiation team, the Taliban negotiation representatives are likely to continue to adhere to many political conditions.
According to the remarks of the Taliban leadership and various propaganda agencies since this year, the opinions of the Taliban mainly include: to have veto power in future political power, and require the dominant position of political power; the principle of respecting Islamic law as the fundamental legal principle of the country;It is required to be in the southern region, especially the actual control of Kandaha, Zaber, Pacida, Hernda Province, Nimruz, Fara, Gurl, etc.Military organization.
Whether it is political influence on the central government, local autonomy, or retaining military forces, it is difficult for the Afghan government to accept it.Taliban still calls the Afghan government as the United States, and opposes the Afghan government as equal negotiating opponents.The members of the leading committee of the Taliban's highest decision -making institution are still the subordinates of the founder Omar or close confidence, and they are also responsible for reviewing the opinions and suggestions of the Taliban negotiation team.Conservative and tough Taliban decision -making institutions are also difficult to accept political major concessions.Therefore, it is difficult to achieve a comprehensive peace agreement in the short term.
Regional ceasefire agreement may be implemented first
In the current peaceful negotiations, it is difficult to reach a comprehensive ceasefire agreement in the short term, but the ceasefire agreement in some areas is likely to be implemented in a tacit understanding.During June 2018 and 2020 (April), Taliban reached a short -term ceasefire agreement with the Afghan government, but failed.
On the one hand, some Taliban armed personnel were separated from the organizational group after the ceasefire agreement, and was reckless by the Afghan government, causing dissatisfaction among Taliban's senior management.On the other hand, Taliban's internal hardships have always called for a comprehensive attack to copy the experience of winning the national regime in the 1990s.
The short -term ceasefire agreement may develop first in different regions.The Afghan government control zone, especially north and central, is still controlled by different military and local forces.The Afghan government negotiator representatives have conducted direct or indirect coordination and negotiations with Taliban through private channels before the negotiations.
For example, Muhammad, head of the government delegation, and Abbas Stanekzai, deputy head of the Taliban delegation, also from Stanikzai Tribe from the Stanikzai Tribe in Loga.The two were in private through local tribal leaders.Some central provinces such as Nangehar, Validaq, and some high -level government leaders in the province of Baman, and local Taliban leaders have also maintained private communication.Therefore, these areas may implement uninterrupted ceasefire agreements.
Afghanistan's negotiations are still very complicated, and it is difficult to achieve peace in the short term.Given that the United States will completely evacuate Afghanistan in 2021, the domestic political reality of Afghanistan is still very complex and changeable.Afghanistan's peaceful negotiations may be difficult to achieve breakthroughs.
(The author is an associate professor of the Middle East Research Institute of Northwestern University and a researcher at the Syrian Research Center)
