Author: Su Yonglin
Facts have proved that in the context of US -China relations entering long -term structural conflicts, cross -strait relations are bound to have model transfer.Public opinion often regards economic and trade as the cockpit stones of Sino -US relations, and what is the Taiwan Strait and Peace -pressing Stone under the model?
Re -sort out from the four major aspects: Taiwan's political party's political, mainland's political stability, cross -strait interaction, and American factors. Recently, the media's cross -strait relations annual investigation polls can bring us some new thinking.
In the political aspect of Taiwan's political parties: Tsai Ing -wen's second term of office has gradually taken shape, which is not only manifested in the stability of the DPP's political territory, but also shows the stability of various politics satisfaction polls.For example, the people's satisfaction with the Cai government's cross -strait policy will not fall to 48%, and it is cross with dissatisfaction.Another example is the affirmation of mainstream public opinion on epidemic prevention, and the extent that the issue of beautiful pigs has limited resentment.
For more than 10 years in charge of the Democratic Progressive Party, Tsai Ing -wen has tamed with green political elites in her own unique way, bringing two major changes: First, retreat from legal Taiwan independence, and then compromise with reality, retreat to the constitutional system of the Republic of China, the peopleThe recognition of Taiwan independence is the biggest variable of cross -strait relations.The second is from the variable, violent, and unknown local grassroots political parties to the pro -American elite groups that follow the rules and allocate, but this has helped the United States' complexity to intervene in the Taiwan Strait.
In the mainland's political stability aspect: Beijing's super stability is the norm, but the period that has occurred per 10 years due to power inheritance and transfer of power in the past.The goal is no longer a problem that plagues the political stability of the mainland.The mainland's national resistance, revitalizing the economy, and the impact of the trade war will only become more and more stable.
Although there are radical populist and martial arts inside the mainland, the anti -split national law clearly stipulates the conditions for martial arts in Taiwan, and also clarify that the mainland officials must shoulder the legal responsibility of promoting peace and unity, cross -strait exchanges.A red line?More importantly, the high stability of mainland politics determines that Beijing is unlikely to divert internal contradictions by fighting Taiwan.
Interactive aspects on both sides of the strait: Although the epidemic has almost cut off cross -strait exchanges, the confrontation between military and diplomacy is increasingly upgraded, but the inextricable connections of economic and social cross -strait economy and society will not make the two sides of the strait decouple and derail.According to the polls, in recent years, in the table of enemy friends on both sides of the strait, the tensions in the politics, military, and diplomatic fields have risen and reached a new high, but the economic and trade and social fields have not followed the tension.
On one side is the tension of political and military, and the other side is the same as the economic and social, which explains two points: one is the disgust and hatred of the people on both sides of the strait, which is far from being so serious as the Internet and the famous hype.The second is that Taiwan's public opinion still has strong confidence in cross -strait economic and social exchanges, and mainland officials have more political determination for maintaining cross -strait exchanges, and the people are naturally optimistic.
Summary of the above three aspects, the compressor stones that maintain the peace of the Taiwan Strait during the sorting stage: the status of the governors on both sides of the strait is quite stable and there will be no internal crisis;The constitutional government system of the Republic of China positions cross -strait relations, and the high recognition of cross -strait affairs in Taiwan society is the same; cross -strait economic and social exchanges will not be broken, nor will it be less.
As for the last aspect, the United States.Although it seems uncontrollably, many signs have recently stated that the United States' improvement of the improvement of Taiwan -US relations a few days ago is full of testimony.Foreign Minister Wu Zhaozheng's clarification of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan. The U.S. Senator Rsoo suddenly made a cautious statement about the US -China -Taiwan relations, which explained that Washington tried the red line of Beijing and also tried the bottom line of the Taiwan Strait.
(The author is a think tank researcher)
