Chu Zhaogen

With the continuous upgrading of the United States' suppression and containment of China, the relationship between the two parties has fallen.Coupled with the fierce election of the Presidential election in the United States in 2020 and entering the final sprint, the current President Trump's polls have fallen sharply in Democratic candidate Biden, and the impact of the epidemic is seriously impacted.Whether or not before the election (November 3) will occur some October Surprise, which may affect the election situation of the two parties, and even finally change the election results. It has been discussed in frequent discussions.According to a survey by Politico, the US political news website, the probability of China and the United States in the South China Sea is second only to Trump announced the withdrawal of the Sino -US first -stage trade agreement.

From the actual perspective, the situation is equally critical.On July 13, US Secretary of State Pompeo issued a statement of the South China Sea, which clearly denied China's sovereignty for the South China Sea.On August 26, the Ministry of Commerce included 24 Chinese companies participating in China in the South China Sea Filling Island on the entity list.In the first half of the year, the United States sent nearly 3,000 military aircraft and more than 60 warships, including multiple batches of bombers and double aircraft carrier formations, and continued to show off their force in South China and strengthen military deployment.As the United States has continuously sent a large number of advanced ships to the South China Sea to provoke strong, and its fancy and frequent development of island -winning combat exercises has made the situation in the South China Sea more and more tense.Essence

However, the possibility of direct evolution of Sino -US competition in the South China Sea is still unlikely.First of all, China and the United States' existing maritime behavior and crisis management and control mechanisms will continue to play a role.In 1972, there were international maritime avoided rules between warships and merchant ships; and between warships, there was rules for accidents at sea in the Western Pacific region. This was officially approved at the Western Naval Forum in Qingdao, China in 2014 and organized by the Chinese Navy.

In November 2014, China and the United States signed two memorandums of understanding of mutual trust measures and mechanisms for the establishment of major military operations to mutually notify the trust measures and the standards for safety behavior of sea and air.In 2015, the Ministry of National Defense of the two countries added an attachment to the two memorandums of military crisis and the safety behavior criteria in the air, and agreed to negotiate other attachments.Sino -US military has made significant progress in building crisis prevention and management mechanisms.

In 2018, the Defense Director of China and the United States has determined to maintain communication on the framework of the two armies' crisis prevention.Although the current two mutual trust mechanisms between China and the United States cannot cover the various problems encountered by the two armies when they meet at sea and the air, they can greatly reduce the possibility of Sino -US conflicts from the technical level.

Secondly, China has no intention of hindering normal navigation and flying over freedom.The South China Sea is China's main energy channel, resource channel and trade channel.China maritime trade accounts for 80%of foreign trade, and 80%of them need to pass through the South China Sea.Similarly, more than 60%of China Petroleum imports pass through the South China Sea Channel.In addition, the imports of iron ore, copper ore and lead ore sand also mainly depend on the South China Sea Channel.

China is urgent to sail offshore safety and free sailing at sea.China obtains the control of his South China Sea, which is neither China's strategic intention nor meets the needs of interests.To put it more clearly, China is the world's largest trading country and the largest trading partner in more than 120 countries and regions. China relies on trade rather than stop road robbery to make money.

When the concept of sea power that has seized and controlled the sea passage through force has passed, it has established a common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable new marine safety concept in order to abandon zero -harmony and cold war thinking, and get out of a safety of co -construction, sharing, and win -win security.road.Therefore, China cannot rely on its own strength or military strength to achieve its exclusive control of the South China Sea Channel. Instead, it is to maintain and achieve through and rely on international cooperation, including global strategic channel security, including the South China Sea.

In this sense, China has no willingness to hinder merchant ships and flights at all. Normal navigation and freedom in the South China Sea, and the United States can not find a real excuse for Chinese martial arts.

Third, the stability of the South China Sea conforms to the interests of Asia's Delica and neighboring countries.The Asianan country is the neighbor of China, China is the Asia -Pacific country, and no one of China and Asians cannot do without it.For a long time, China has pursued the concept of sincerity and benefit, and implemented a good relationship with the policies of good -neighborly neighbors, bonuses, and neighbors, and has maintained a good relationship with the Asianan country.

However, since the country outside the territory host the fairness and intervene in territorial disputes, I believe that neighboring countries will see clearly and think clearly, because the two elephants are fighting, and the grass is eventually injured.The neighbors around China and the South China Sea have common interests to maintain the smoothness of the South China Sea Channel and the development of the South China Sea resources.Prevent conflicts and avoid confrontation as the common interests of neighboring countries.

In the end, the Trump administration preferably pay attention to domestic development, security and employment.Trump has repeatedly proposed to end the stupid war, hoping to withdraw troops from Syria, Afu, and Iraq.There is no 100 % victory in military conflict directly with China, and it does not meet the interests of the United States and the US priority policy of the Trump administration, and it is not necessary.

There are still many means and tools in the United States to suppress China, but they do not have the foundation of public opinion.According to polls such as Politico, in the economic, medical insurance, crown disease, national security, taxation, education, environment, the Supreme Court, immigration, foreign policy, and China's major election issues, the importance of Chinese issues in the minds of voters in votersRow at the end.

Therefore, for China, maintaining enough calmness and restraint, do not tighten the pace of the United States, dance with the United States to avoid the two sides from falling into a safe dilemma. At the same time, do not believe, follow some media and famous hype, and build the United States as an enemy.The real purpose of the United States is only to compete with China; by displaying and showing off force in the South China Sea, attracting followers while knocking on China, thereby achieving the enclosure and curb of China.In this sense, China and the United States wipe guns in the South China Sea but still not to get angry.

The author is a special professor at Zhejiang University of Science and Technology in China

Director of the Belt and Road and Non -traditional Security Research Center

At present, keeping enough calmness and restraint, do not follow the United States and dance with the United States to avoid the two sides from being in a safe dilemma. At the same time, do not believe in, follow some media and famous hype, and build the United States as an enemy.