Cao Xin: The world seems to be moving towards the world before World War II. All countries are beginning to move towards all walks. The world that is the world has led to the gradual loss of the United Nations function.
This column is co -sponsored by FT Chinese website and the public account (formerly the public account Jingwei), and the China Think Tank Foundation was co -sponsored.
In the past week, a topic of the focus of the world's public opinion is sad. This topic concludes that the world seems to be moving towards the world before World War II, and countries are beginning to move towards all walks.
Last week, two things were closely related to the above topic: one is the 75th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations, and the other is the evolution of the Taiwan situation caused by the world's various lines.The world of various banks has led to the gradual loss of the United Nations function, including major events like the new crown epidemic, and the Taiwan issue, which is crucial to China, has also evolved major due to the various lines of this world.
How to deal with the situation that the world may return to before World War II
This year marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations. In the context of the worldwide new crown epidemic, this is a good opportunity to strengthen the cooperation of various countries to solve the human enemy of the new crown epidemic, but the reality is disappointing.
The world media generally reported the emphasis on the United States's Permanent Representative to the United Nations at the conference.
Kravte said: Each of you should be ashamed (Shame on Each of You).I was surprised and disgusting for today's discussion.
She also pointed his finger to the United Nations Security Council: I actually really felt very shameful about this council mdash; mdash; members of the council to take this opportunity to focus on political grievances instead of solving the key issues in front of you!
The United Nations Secretary -General Gutres made a dangerous trailer at the opening of the conference: as Sino -US tensions were upgraded, the world was moving towards a very dangerous direction.
He said: We must do our best to avoid a new cold war.Gutres emphasizes: Our world cannot bear such a future MDash; MDASH; two largest economies will split global splits in a large break, each with its own trade and financial rules, as well as Internet and artificial intelligence capabilities.
The most urgent and critical events of human society are undoubtedly the second wave of new crown epidemic in the world recently warned by the world's scientists.However, it is very regrettable that at this UN General Assembly, this big matter has basically not become the main topic of the conference, let alone discuss how to strengthen international cooperation to solve this problem.On the contrary, the entire conference has become a hodgepodge with its own interests of attacks and attacked, defense and skepties.
It is worth noting that in the context of the world's epidemic, China and the United States have intensified, but many countries in the world have more opinion and dissatisfaction with the wrestling of China and the United States.The situation caused is: the position of these countries on a specific problem may stand on one side between China and the United States, but they will never stand in line, nor will they participate in the conference’s argument at the conference.The Sino -US leaders were compared with the UN General Assembly, but the international community did not form two camps.
This heralds a development trend of the future world: If China and the United States continue to fight, the world will split, but there will be no national camps that have been presented in the past; the majority of small and medium -sized countries are based on their own national interests. They are based on the needs of specific issues., Temporaryly cooperate with a certain part of China and the United States; the world will be less able to effectively solve global issues. Relevant countries can only solve part of the world's problems within the scope of their own countries.All this means that the world may return to the era when World War II is.
Undoubtedly, this situation is extremely unfavorable to China's future development.Because there are two major core development elements in China, it is not in its own hands: international currency and core technology, which constitutes a huge bottleneck in China's next development.Under this situation, China's development speed will soon slow down or even stagnate; once the world epidemic is over or greatly alleviated, the development speed between China and the United States will soon wider the distance.It will trigger a domestic problem of China's 1.4 billion people.At the same time, when finance is not in my own hands, this also means the loss of game means. This can be seen from today's Korean sanctional examples, but the problem that is not seen is that once the financial currency is being counted,The use of others, the use of game tools is actually greatly limited.
In the face of the above situation, the author still insists on whether it should be proposed in a new G2 article in China and the United States: China must propose a new standard framework and qualitative for Sino -US relations, that is, through the transfer and sharing of power, the transfer and sharing of power.Realize the sharing of interests and share responsibilities.The responsibility of the responsibility can be a topic or a regional slide -out; the two parties will designate the bottom line beforehand.This situation can be called a new G2.This is the current comprehensive strength and world status of China and the United States, which has nothing to do with ideology.Even if ideological differences exist objectively, China should keep in mind Deng Xiaoping's words: the dispute between the interests of China and the United States is objective and unavoidable, but it should not be associated with ideology.Because there are not many countries in the world who can accept Chinese ideology, after all, China's rise has been a whole with the world in terms of financial currency and high -precision technology. In this era, it is impossible to start another stove, but only can only be stove, but only can only be stove.Realize within the existing international system.
Strait midline: Yes, is there no?
It is associated with the characteristics of the times when it is its own time. Another focus on the attention of the world ’s Chinese media last week was the evolution of the situation in the Taiwan Strait.In fact, the recent turbulence of the Taiwan Strait situation is exactly the result of the game between China and the United States. This game has led to a certain extent.The Taiwan Strait is deeply in the crisis.
There is still no middle line in the strait. It is completely determined by the strength of the two sides. One is determined by the comparison of the strength of the cross -strait, and the other is restricted and controlled by the comparison of Chinese and foreign strength.Therefore, there is no midline or no.History tells us that when the power of the mainland Air Force is not strong enough, the Chiang Kai -shek government in Taiwan does not comply with the central line of the Strait and frequently send U2 reconnaissance planes to cross the midline and go to the mainland inland reconnaissance.The so -called tacit understanding.And because the DPP authorities and the United States have put pressure on the mainland now, the mainland naturally does not believe that there is no strait midline to a certain extent.All this is the essence of the problem. The latest statement of the Taiwan authorities reported last week was proof.
International media reported last week that Taiwan Foreign Minister Wu Zhaozheng said in an interview with the National Public Radio (NPR) of the United States: Taiwan does not seek to establish a comprehensive diplomatic relationship with the United States.However, he also shows that there is still a lot of space for Taiwan and the United States to further strengthen bilateral relations. Taiwan has always advocated that it should further strengthen the economic, trade, political and security relationships with the United States.
Obviously, the former is the focus, and the latter is just the political posture of the DPP.However, the former's statement shows that the United States intends to temporarily relieve and cool down the situation on both sides of the strait, and find a hot spot in regional hotspots in China.
Since the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party ruling in Taiwan at the beginning of this century, mainland China has actually focused on the work of the Kuomintang side, which is related to the historical origins of the KMT and the Communist Party, and the result of the Kuomintang's full efforts to work in the mainland at that time. On the contrary, the mainland pairs.The work of the Democratic Progressive Party is remarkable. After so many years of twists and turns, there are many of them worthy of summary.But as far as the centralized crisis of the Straits is concerned, the performance of the Kuomintang will inevitably disdain bystanders.
According to a Taiwanese person familiar with Taiwanese politics, the Kuomintang made two major mistakes this time:
First, we hold the same position as your opponent's Democratic Progressive Party.Taiwan media reports: The Mainland PLA military aircraft have crossed the central line and entered the Taiwan airspace many times recently. For this reason, Ma Ying -jeou, a former leader of Taiwan, called on mainland China, saying that this would only hurt the feelings of the Taiwanese people and should stop immediately.The above -mentioned Taiwan observationPeople commented that the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party have committed a political taboo. Although his motivation may be to pull the Kuomintang's support rate, he does not want the Kuomintang to further die in Taiwan.
Second, at an important moment of the Kuomintang, the Kuomintang lost its own favorable opportunities to play its unique political role on both sides of the strait, and its political failure was completely failed.The basis for observer in Taiwan is that Wang Jinping, the Kuomintang big man who originally scheduled to come to the mainland to participate in the relevant forum, was just because the mainland media said that he came to the mainland at this time to seek peace and he would not come to the mainland to attend the meeting, which fully exposed Wang Jinping's shortcomings.Because seeking peace and politics for Taiwan is completely correct, if you can have a consensus after coming to the mainland, it is also a strong restriction on the DPP's public opinion and politics, and it is also the victory of the Kuomintang's political victory. After he does not come to the mainland, he followed Ma Ying -jeou.He also stated that he was standing in the same position as the DPP, which showed that the Kuomintang's cadres and elites had been lost.
The above issues indicate that if the policy is not adjusted for the mainland, the internal issues in Taiwan will be more difficult to deal with in the future.
Fundamentally, the Taiwan issue can only be solved only within the framework of Sino -US relations. Unless the US government has abandoned this entry point that contains China and undertakes major political pressure in the United States.Only under the premise of establishing the above -mentioned new G2 relationship between China and the United States and in the context of the in -depth participation of the local election government in Taiwan, the Taiwan issue may enter the track solution.In particular, Taiwan is not a former colony Hong Kong and Macau. It is the place where the Chinese have managed and built. Its economic and social achievements have attracted worldwide attention for many years, including the treatment of the current epidemic.Therefore, the treatment of Taiwanese affairs must be learned from Hong Kong's lessons, and it is cautious to solve it smoothly.
(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
