If all the existing oil cars in China can remove the oil -burning engine directly, replace it with the battery, and replace the electric vehicle with great acceleration electric vehicles.In this way, the original car body will continue to be used, which will also greatly reduce the huge cost of electric vehicles replacing oil cars.Nowadays, if you want to use an electric car, you can only buy a new car, which not only costs huge costs, but also greatly affects the progress of electric vehicles to replace oil cars.This is the automotive oil to change electricity. This technology should promote breakthroughs as a strategic technology. This breakthrough will be greatly beneficial to China's de -petrochemical, which will be greatly conducive to China from getting rid of oil dependence.
China, which imports oil in 2019, accounts for 70%of China.EssenceSo how to go, it is a great strategy to promote the large area of Chinese civilian cars to electrification.It can be said that if Chinese people do not need automotive oil, then Chinese residents have no oil in life.Without oil consumption of residents' lives, China's foreign oil dependence will be able to directly cut off the people's travel.And China's domestic production and imported oil only needs to meet other areas (such as military, aviation, petrochemical production, etc.) in other areas needed for non -residents' daily life, then China's oil dependence ratio will be greatly reduced, and China's domestic oil guarantee accounts for accountingBi will also increase hugely. In this critical period, China ’s concerns about being worried about being cut off will also be greatly precautions.
Therefore, China should vigorously promote the oil consumption that cut off the lives of residents and promote the strategy of oil de -oil in the field of travel. This requires vigorously developing large -scale promotion of electric vehicles and replacing oil -roasted vehicles.If it is exactly the replacement of a new car and new electric vehicles, many depends on the choice of buying a car for the new car. This amount is still too small.If all the existing cars can be promoted directly, the oil is directly modified, and it will greatly accelerate the large -scale promotion of electric vehicles. At the same time, it will also greatly reduce the cost of large -scale promotion.
When Tesla chose to build a green card in Shanghai's wholly -owned factory, the Chinese State Council Prime Minister Li Keqiang personally met Musk in Zhongnanhai. If the Prime Minister received the reception of Musk from the perspective of investment promotion, it would be limited.Putting Tesla, the catfish, is to completely solve the problem of refueling in China, and completely solve the major problem of oil shortage.
I hope to make the Tesla Shanghai factory into a global example.Musk said that I love China very much and are willing to come here.If you do have this idea, we can distribute LSquo; Chinese green card rsquo;.Li Keqiang said.
The Tesla Shanghai Super Factory, which has been put into production, covers a total area of 864,885 square meters and a total investment of 50 billion yuan. It can produce 500,000 pure electric vehicles an annual output.
China has become the leader of global electric vehicle applications.Tesla uses lsquo; accelerating the world's transformation to sustainable energy. As a mission, the Chinese market is very important for us to realize this vision.Musk said that in April 2018, after 5 years of confirmation in China, after the full opening of the automotive industry, Musk quickly decided to settle Tesla's super factory in Shanghai and become the first landing after the restrictions of China's new energy vehicles to let go of foreign -funded shares.project.
The global development of electric vehicles over the years has been rapid, but it can still speed up significantly.For more than ten years, electric vehicles are just a niche market, and the market penetration rate is less than 1%, but in recent years, its market share cannot be ignored, and it is moving towards the dominant orbit.Due to the total sales of all automotive markets in 2018 and 2019, electric vehicles accounted for only 3%of global car sales in 2019.Affected by the new crown virus epidemic, the total global car sales this year may even be even lower than the 2009 financial crisis.However, the market share of electric vehicles continued to rise, reaching 4%in seven months by 2020.
According to the analysis of the international market research institution, the United States Canto Intertext, global electric vehicle sales are expected to increase to 2 million units in 2019, of which more than half of the Chinese market accounts for more than half.At the same time, the United States New Energy Vehicle Media Inside EVS reported that mainland China has contributed huge to the global electric vehicle revolution and has 99%of the world's electric buses, contributing a lot of petroleum reduction.Taiwan Wangbao reported in 2019 that electric vehicles have grown over the years and gradually have a place in the global market.INSIDE EVS refers to the first year of electric vehicles in 2018, and also pointed out that the world's most contributed to the world's most contributed in 2018 to 2019 is mainland China.Inside EVS, according to global electric vehicle production and sales, export rates, and influence, it measures the contribution value of countries in the field of electric vehicles.Among them, mainland China defeated Norway, the United States, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany with 78 points, ranking the top of the world.It is reported that INSIDE EVS pointed out that last year, the electric vehicle market in mainland China continued to grow, and consumers in mainland China purchased more than half of the world's electric vehicles last year.According to the report, amazing sales are only part of the contribution value. Inside EVS emphasized that although the development of electric vehicles in the mainland is relatively late, technology has been recognized by many Western countries.
It is true that the tightening of fuel vehicle policies for banning fuel vehicles will promote the speed of speed of the development of electric vehicles.According to reports, Governor of California, Governor of the United States, Middot; New Onemum recently announced that it is to cope with global environmental issues.California will prohibit the sale of new gasoline power vehicles from 2035, becoming the first state in the United States to clearly withdraw from the exit of traditional fuel vehicles.This move does not prevent California from having or selling gasoline power used cars, and it is expected to reduce California's 35%greenhouse gas emissions.California existing 34 electric vehicle manufacturers, including Tesla.New White said that the regulations will also help the development of the California economy and a policy that other states in the United States should follow.Compared with the pace of fuel vehicles in the United States, Europe is undoubtedly one step ahead.Earlier, Britain and France announced that it would ban fuel and gas in 2040. Germany was set in 2030, and Norway and the Netherlands were earlier until 2025.At the same time, and driven by the EU's increasingly stringent emission regulations, some European countries also promised that the time for the ban on fuel vehicles from 2040 to 2030.In addition, India has also announced that it will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030. According to statistics, there have been 17 countries that have announced the fuel vehicle ban.Some analysts pointed out that similar practices in California's ban and 17 countries around the world may marked a turning point in the development of electric vehicles.Morgan Stanley stated in previous research report that it is promoted by the policy of New Energy Vehicle in China. By the 2030s, the global electric vehicle penetration rate will reach 26%.In this policy, the penetration rate of global electric vehicles may reach 50%.
The global market's large -scale popularization and replacement of oil -burning vehicles have made the oil industry companies see a huge crisis.They are proposing a transformation plan.Mr. Yang Shixu, president of BP China, introduced the energy transformation strategy and development plan of BP Company recently.According to the plan, BP will be transformed from an international oil company (IOC) to the International Energy Corporation (IEC) by 2030.Specifically, the following key goals will be achieved by 2030: First, the annual investment of BP in the field of low -carbon energy will reach $ 5 billion, which is ten times the current annual investment.Investigation in the new country; third, the carbon emissions generated by the company's operations decreased by 30 ~ 35%, and the carbon emissions in the production process of upstream oil and gas decreased by 35 ~ 40%; the fourth is that electric vehicle charging piles increased from the current 7,500 to70,000; Fifth, the company's share of the company's hydrogen energy business increased to 10%in the core market.
BP also released the World Energy Outlook in 2020 on September 14th. This outlook sets three scenarios: fast transformation scenarios, net zero, this scene will discharge carbon emissions at least 95%in 2050. Net.Zero scenarios are roughly consistent with the scene where the global temperature is raised to 1.5 degrees Celsius) and everything is as usual.In the net zero scenario, by 2050, the proportion of oil and gas in one energy will be from 85%in 2018 to 20%!AndIn this scenario, the proportion of petroleum in traffic energy will also be from 90%in 2018 to 20%!
Fan Bo Deng, CEO of another European oil giant-Shell Company, recently has radical expressions on energy transformation.He believes that considering the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and global economy, 2019 is likely to be the peak year of human use of petroleum.In other words, in 2020 and after, human beings will never return to the peak of oil consumption level of 100 million barrels per day (annual consumption of 5 billion tons).
World -class international oil companies such as Shell have clearly seen the development trend of the global oil field.Several of the world's largest upstream companies will develop exploration, development and production activities in most oil -producing countries.Faced with energy transformation, some large global companies are amending their long -term oil prices and demand forecasts, and need to significantly streamline investment portfolios to improve cash flow, cost efficiency and competitiveness.Rystad Energy (Rystad Energy) to Exxon Mobil, British Petroleum Corporation (BP/Bigpi), Shell, Daedal, Enei, Chevron, Congei, and Norway National Petroleum Corporation+(Majors+) The business geographical distribution of the group conducted a study, and it was found that withdrawal from some countries may lead to assets worth more than $ 100 billion.With limited cash that can be used for large -scale acquisitions, oil giants+potential transactions and asset exchange may be considered.
The trend of automotive oil transformation in this world is great for China that is seriously dependent on imported by oil.China should continue to accelerate the arrival of this process. The earlier and thorough the process of rectifying the electric power of this automotive oil, China's oil dependence will solve the stuck neck faster, and China will also be faster.Petroleum life pulse.Therefore, China should resolutely promote automotive oil to change electricity, resolutely promote the de -petrochemical field in the civilian field. It is necessary to rise to the high degree of national strategy and vigorously develop the technology of breaking through the automotive oil transformation technology, and accelerate the existing existing cars in the country to promote the electricity to the electricity.
In addition, we are the world's largest countries in the future, and the production of oil in China should continue to persist.The core intention of this article is to develop automotive oil to change electricity to promote the use of petrochemicals of Chinese people and reduce oil dependence.Increasing the production of oil in China should not be affected by this. China's military, aviation, and chemical oil also need to use oil from China to solid protection.Therefore, the development strategy of the entire company's de -petroleum company's de -petroleum company's development strategy, China ’s domestic petroleum companies must not follow the trend blindly, and we must continue to adhere to the mission of contributing to China.Domestic oil companies are guaranteed only 30%of the original countries, and they have not given up and reduce any room for oil production.In China's huge market, they can only satisfy part, and they must continue to satisfy, do not blindly follow the market -oriented transformation of foreign oil giants.
Author: Peng Shengyu
Petroleum central enterprise strategic researcher, researcher of the Chahar Society, and special researcher of the International Financial Forum (IFF) Research Institute
