Hong Kong 01: How far is it from the war of the Taiwan Strait?

The situation on both sides of the strait has recently risen rapidly because of crossing the middle line of the Straits many times, and it seems that there is a feeling of war.Under the wrestling of China and the United States, the United States continues to contain mainland China with Taiwan.The mainland accused Taiwan and the United States of Doulian destroyed the first structure, which was a provocative of China's sovereignty; Taiwan and the United States accused Mainland China for military threats, intending to unilaterally change the situation on the two sides of the strait.The current military tensions on both sides of the strait may increase the opportunity to wipe the gun away, but both China and the United States are waiting for others to start the first shot.The situation on both sides of the strait is heating up, which is similar to the military conflict between China and India. However, as long as the Taiwan authorities can maintain their sense, it should not develop into a hot battle.

The U.S. military hopes that the Taiwan Strait will fire the mainland and hope Taiwan will fire.

The mainland has not acted across the Taiwan Strait's midline for many years. At this time, sending military planes to fly over the midline is unclear to make military warnings, so it is not significant to spend a lip to discuss whether the midline is deposited.After all, in recent years, senior US officials have visited Taiwan and broke the situation that the two parties have not had official relations over the years. Of course, the mainland government has regarded it as the United States to challenge its bottom line and responded.

However, the mainland made a military warning of Taiwan and the United States. It is not so much that he wants to attack Taiwan, it is better to declare strength.Under the current situation, the first side of the first shot is almost equivalent to launching a war, and it will take a lot of international responsibility.Especially if China and the United States confront the Taiwan Strait, none of them can have an overwhelming advantage in strength. If the negative labels to launch the war are naturally very unfavorable. ThereforeBut I didn't want to play the first shot, so I had to continue to perform a provocative drama.

For the United States, at this moment, the Trump administration will definitely have reason to hope that the Taiwan Strait will have a war.Trump has obviously lagging behind his opponent Biden. If there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, although the United States may not go all out to help Taiwan, it is likely to make a certain degree of intervention.In this way, Trump can successfully become the president to increase the support during the war, and even use the war as a postponing election.Of course, the United States does not have any position to play the first shot, so even if Trump is looking forward to it, he can only wait for any party to fire on both sides of the strait.

On the other hand, even though the PLA has an overwhelming advantage over the Taiwan Army, the possibility of the United States to participate in the war has made the situation in Taiwan and Straits more complicated.If you really want to start, the mainland does not want the label of war and destroying peace on the back of the mainland. Therefore, for the mainland, the most ideal situation is of course the first shot of the Taiwanese side.

Do you dare to fire the first shot in Taiwan?

The current situation is that the United States hopes that the Taiwan Strait will fire. As for it, it may not be important to fire first; while the Chinese side hopes that Taiwan will fire, it is clear whether the key to wiping guns on both sides of the strait will fall on Taiwan.China and the United States are waiting for a person to take responsibility. If Taiwan fires, it is exactly the active dedication. It is undoubtedly a double nollity.Will the U.S. military may not have much impact on the fate of Taiwan. After all, for Trump, it is just a reason to find a war. If there is a war, Taiwan's island will inevitably pay a heavy price.

Regardless of whether it is supported by the United States, Taiwan's active shot is not a rational choice for itself.However, the Tsai Ing -wen government has recently appeared on the Vietnam Middle Line that has a tough will to adhere to the land, and has even been praised by some green people as the mother -in -law.Many people in Taiwan are still intoxicating to the imagination of the PLA's impossible to attack Taiwan. Driven by populist emotions, whether the Taiwan side can really restrain it without wiping the gun and getting angry.The PLA is estimated that it will make more fierce deployment, and it may even send troops directly to Taiwan. If the Taiwanese side fails to be restrained, it is likely that the entire Asia and even the world will fall into war.