Zou Zonghan: The four key issues of whether China and India started war or not

Author: Zou Zonghan

Source: Voice of Germany

The tension between China and India will rise after the meeting between the two sides. The Voice of Germany interviewed Liu Xiaoxue, an associate researcher at the Asia -Pacific and Global Strategic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the Australian Institute of Strategy and Policy, Indians Aakriti Bachhawat, to analyzeSeveral issues that are concerned about all parties.

1. Will China and India start a war? Who will win if the war starts?

Liu Xiaoxue believes that although the foreign ministers of China and India have stated that the war cannot solve the problem, the method of downgrading the conflict in the statement is not specific.She said: She only said that she should leave contact as soon as possible and maintain the necessary distance.How fast is it? What is necessary?

She believes that the Sino -Indian border battle will outbreak depends on New Delhi's approach.She said: Now it is said that the Chinese border is very nervous. Indians are saying that they really feel nervous.

As for the two sides really started, Liu Xiaoxue believes that China can achieve an overwhelming victory.She said: The first fight of the army is consuming warfare, depending on who has money, and then to see who's political stability. If the democratic state loses, it must fall down.We are not important in non -democratic countries, or to say that political unity, or losing or losing. We can persist. We can fight for a long -term war. We still have money to fight.

Bachhawat's opinion said that the PLA continued to provoke the results of the peace talks between the two sides, which caused neither the military of the two countries to achieve the goal of separation from contact. The conflict was continuously upgraded, and it was really likely that the border war.

She said that the long -term war is indeed not good for the Indian army, especially the development and construction of the Indian border as good as China, and it cannot provide long -term logistics supplies like China.However, she emphasized that after entering October, the high -altitude winter battlefield is beneficial to the Indian army with excellent tactics in equipment and tactics.The point is that the Indian army can successfully restrain the PLA.

2. The number of casualties says each other, who should I believe?

Hu Xijin, editor -in -chief of the Chinese official media, said on September 17 that Indian Defense Minister Singh said that the PLA has major casualties in the PLA.

He said: As far as I know, the Chinese army's death was far less than 20 people in the Indian army in the conflict of the La Wanwan Valley on June 15.No Chinese soldiers were captured by the Indian army, but the PLA captured many Indian soldiers on the same day.He also said that the PLA's two conflicts on June 15 and Ban Gonghu on August 30, both of which were in the upper hand, and emphasized that Singh's speech was an encouragement to the Indian nationalist forces.

Liu Xiaoxue also said that she did not believe in Indian data, because the mouths of the Indians were very able to say, and our Chinese people did not speak without saying that we lost.

She said: The Indians are too capable of saying, and their mouths are expressed. Black and white upside down is very level because they are so good in English.But she also mentioned that without the number of actual casualties in China, she could not get specific information.

Bachhawat said: India is a democratic country and China is an authoritarian government. Of course, Indian data is more reliable because Indian military statistics are under the supervision of the media and parliament.

She said that Indian officials have announced 20 deceaseds early, but the number of casualties in China is unknown until now.She also emphasized that although she personally believes that the Liberation Army's casualties are relatively serious, but under uncertainty whether the Indian army has exaggerated, she thinks that it can only say that China has casualties, but she does not know how much it is.

3. The leaders of the two sides come forward to solve it?

Liu Xiaoxue believes that China is completely fine here, but India has face problems.She said that China is currently very negative about the Indian Prime Minister Modi. She believes that Modi has no substantial way for China. It can only surge in China's APP, which is not obvious from the economic effect, let alone political effects.

But she still believes that political solutions still have to be solved from the high level.She also said that for China, once the high -level is set, it will be able to implement it below.However, the Indian military and the politicians always seem to have different opinions. The politicians talked, and the army was still making a statement.

She emphasized that China was a little disappointed at the high level of the overall situation on many issues in India, because China attaches importance to fighting against the epidemic and fighting against the trend of globalization, but India only cares behind some small issues.

She said: If India is still this attitude, (leaders) are meaningless.

Bachhawat's opinion is completely right with her. She believes that China is Gu Naizi, because China may not expect that the Indian army's determination is so strong, saying that under the Indian side insisted on shrinking, there are not many options in China.Like trying to occupy more territories on the border.

She believes that although it is not impossible to solve diplomacy, India is very alert to resolve the conflict through leaders.She mentioned that in the past, Modi had maintained personal relationships and the two had met many times, but now they seem to be in India, making India feel betrayal.

She said: If China wants to keep the face (let the leaders of both sides meet), India will not think.

4. What should I do next?

Liu Xiaoxue said that China's position is firm, the party command gun, and the government commands the army. Now it depends on how the Indian party responds.

She said: For our China, we have a firm attitude.Fight, we are accompanied to the end.It is better not to fight, and peace is important.Talking is the best. When we talk about five points, we will implement it.If India continues to occupy the place while we talk, it is not a real attitude.

She also mentioned that China now wants bilateral problems and bilateral solutions, but India wants to attract international attention.Often, some small and weak countries have called on the world, multilateral, especially the border issues, exaggerate it to solve it internationally.

Bachhawat mentioned that in terms of global politics, the international community is more believed in India, because China's practice on the Indian border is not related to its regional expansion forces.

She said: It is not the same as the expansion of the current situation in the South China maritime, which does not change to try to seize the status quo of Indian territory. Then India can only continue to increase China's harassment of India.