Author: Tom Fairless

Source: Wall Street Journal

For decades, the informal partnerships that Germany and China have formed in economics are now disintegrated. With the strong return of the Asian giant in China, this pose a threat to Germany and even the entire European recovery after the epidemic.

Germany provides the mechanical and equipment required for economic development in Germany. Such bilateral relations help the German economy quickly recover after the financial crisis.However, the German business leader said that with the change of China from a partner to a competitor, this model is no longer applicable.

According to economists from the German public and private sector, Germany ’s GDP this year (GDP) should shrink 5.8%to 7.1%, which is better than most other Western economies, but it is 2.5%of China’ s expected growth rate.It is much worse. As well as Although German exporters are benefiting from the recovery of international trade, they have not received support from China like 10 years ago.Germany's exports in July increased from the previous month, but still decreased by 11%year -on -year.China's exports have exceeded the same period last year for two consecutive months.

Economists and German business leaders said that the differentiation of the Sino -German economic situation is attributed to the strategy of the Chinese government to encourage domestic manufacturers to produce more precise machinery and equipment.Stronger competitiveness.

For many German exporters, this situation not only means that their sales in China have become more difficult, but also that Chinese companies are becoming more and more competitors in other fields.Herrenknecht Ag is a company that feels this pressure.

In the first 15 years of this century, this high -end tunnel excavator manufacturer played a pillar role in infrastructure projects across Asia, serving underground engineering construction in metropolitan cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.The high -end tunnel excavator is a large -scale machine with a multi -layer structure that can be laid and concrete while the tunnel can be laid while the tunnel can be installed.

From 2000 to 2015, the revenue of this family business increased by nearly six times to about 1.3 billion euros, of which one -fifth of them came from China. The company's growth has created a number of manufacturing factories in southwestern GermanyWith thousands of employment opportunities.

However, in the past four years, Heruk's annual sales have fallen by about 5%.The company said that large -scale construction companies in China have developed their own drilling machines and do not need to buy Heruk's machines.As the main competitors of Heirik in the large machinery market, Robbins Co., headquartered in Ohio, USA, has recently merged with Northern China Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd. (Northern Heavy Industry).

Chinese companies are increasingly competitive in the international market, and the price provides is extremely low.Herryk spokesman Qu En said.The speed of their appearance surprised Europe.

This year may be a turning point in the relationship between Germany and China.China is both the largest trading partner in Germany and a long -term focus of German global diplomacy.

In the past 20 years, China needs to import industrial robots, factories and vehicles in Germany to become the world's most important consumer goods producer.German companies will think of two -digit growth in sales of China as a matter of course.In the early years of this century, this not only helped Germany the largest exporter in the world, leading in China and the United States, but also transferred to China in the United States and other countries and regions.Manufacturing job.

At present, Chinese companies are supplying wind turbines in France, selling buses in Norway, building grids in Poland, and selling advanced industrial machinery around the world.In the Sweden capital, a Chinese group has just recently obtained a contract to dig three subway tunnels for Stockholm.

Hawe Hydraulik SE Chairman Hoyisgen said that in the key areas of high -end manufacturing, including infrastructure equipment, China has narrowed the gap with German companies.Hawe Hydraulik said that the company has faced more competition from China for hydraulic valves and pump products for wind turbine and mechanical equipment.

Hoisgen said: China is not a developing country, it is not at all.China is a mature, first -class manufacturing country.

As the Chinese government has worked hard to control the spread of the domestic new crown epidemic, and China has introduced policies to support the economy, Chinese exporters have now seized a greater share of the global export market. At the same time, other countries are still being dragged down by the epidemic situation.Essence

Akman, managing director of the German Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing Federation responsible for foreign trade affairs, said: Chinese companies have become the world's first time.

According to data from the German Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing Federation, in the 10 years of 2018, Germany's share in global mechanical engineering products has decreased from 19.2%to 16.1%, while China's share has increased from 8.5%to 13.5%EssenceThe mechanical engineering industry provides about 1.3 million jobs in Germany.

According to a study released by the law firm Baker#8231; Mai Jian's last month, China has further expanded its global market share that has the highest correlation with German engineering enterprises, such as infrastructure fields.

In December last year, China Engineering Enterprise CIC Tangshan Motorcycle and Vehicle Co., Ltd. received a contract worth 50 million euros to build 18 rows of subway trains for Portugal's second largest cities in Portugal.This is the first rail vehicle construction contract obtained by Chinese companies in the European Union and defeated German Siemens and other companies.According to a person familiar with the matter, officials believed that these subway trains were strong and designed almost the same as Italy.

Morgado, a spokesman for the Porto Metro Corporation, said that the successful bidding for China is based on factors such as price, technical quality and design. The price of the Borde Metro's initial estimation of the purchase of subway trains is 6.5 million euros.

Blander, CEO of Yizanpart Group, said that he realized this three years ago and he found that the quality of competitive products from China has improved.Emitian Group produces electric motors and fans for cars and household equipment.

He said that China is still the second largest market in Germany after Germany, but the company's sales in the Chinese market have been stagnant for several months before the new crown epidemic outbreak.Sales often grow at the rate of dual digits.

The general manager of NGC EUROPE and the Germans said that the large -scale trade exhibitions have begun to reopen the large -scale trade exhibitions across Germany. At this type of exhibition, Chinese companies just set up old -fashioned small booths.He also said that now you can't see how many Sino -German manufacturers are different.NGC EUROPE is a subsidiary of China High -speed Transmission Equipment Group Co., Ltd. in Germany.

The organizers of the Hannover Industry Expo said that last year, Chinese exhibitors accounted for nearly one -fifth of the exhibitors. In contrast, the ratio was 13.6%in 2015.The Hanover Industry Expo is one of the world's largest investment exhibitions.

Government data shows that Germany's export growth in China in 2019 set the lowest level since 2015.According to BRANDL CEO of Yizanpart Group, even though the Chinese economy has now rebounded from the trough of the new crown epidemic, German companies did not benefit as much as after the 2008 financial crisis.He predicts that sales in China will drop by 3%to 4%this year, and will return to the level before the epidemic crisis next year.

Portar, the managing director of the industrial equipment manufacturer in Bavaria, said that German medium -sized engineering companies are often owned by the family and rely on bank financing.It has a huge scale economy and everything is produced.

Ball said: Industrial machines are not luxury, customers pay attention to both quality and price.

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Even the German legendary automotive industry was besieged.China Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (Ningde Times) is currently the world's largest electric vehicle battery manufacturer.In Ningde, a battery factory was built in Germany to supply European auto manufacturers. The scale of this factory is about three times that of Tesla Super Factory.

At the same time, Robert Middot, the world's largest automotive parts supplier, said that although the company's internal combustion engine component business is shrinking, it will not produce batteries for electric vehicles.Instead, the company stated that it is cooperating with the Ningde Times to produce batteries.

Analysts estimate that the battery accounts for about 40%of the cost of an electric vehicle.The German government estimated in a report last year that as electric vehicles replaced traditional cars, nearly half of Germany's 870,000 auto industry may be lost.

Last year, Bogestra Ag operating in urban operations such as Bohr Valley in the Old German industrial zone Ruhr Valley, becoming the first public transport company to order an electric buse from China.The 20 buses ordered from BYD will be used with Mercedes-Benz and Czech manufacturer Solaris Bus Coach Sa.A spokesman for Bogestra said the company decided to buy BYD vehicles based on the latter's price, vehicle operating cost and quality.

Many German executives still regard China as their largest market.However, they said in private that they were losing patience to bureaucratic obstacles, mandatory technology transfer, subsidies, and various protectionist barriers. For a long time, these problems have been regarded as the cost of entering the Chinese market.Some people call on the German government to imitate US President Trump to adopt a tough strategy for China.

Former Senior officials of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the current deputy director of the Strategic Department of the International Monetary Fund, Cetermier, said: The tough attitude of the United States is useful because it means that Germany can adopt the aggressiveness two years ago, but now it looks reasonable now.Position.

German officials have recently issued signals to China's stronger diplomatic positions.They said that due to the dispute with China in a series of issues such as human rights from market fairness, Germany will shift its focus to Asian democratic countries including Japan and South Korea.

Rockgen, the Political Alliance of German Chancellor Merkel and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Parliament, said that only Germany maintains technical advantages, China will need Germany.

He said: I am worried that this window is closed, China is constantly improving, and there are more and more technical advantages in technology, and we are stagnating.