Horizontal World
On September 14, the President of the Liberal Democratic Party was elected in the election election.In his speech, he promised to inherit the Abe route; there was reason to expect that he would maintain continuity in diplomacy.
At the same time, when the election is held, whether the new president transitions characters, there are various discussions, and whether domestic politics in Japan can achieve the stable politics of the Abe period must still be observed, which is an uncertainties for Sino -Japanese relations.
Sino -Japanese relations have improved significantly in recent years. After the Coronatte epidemic in early this year, China and Japan have watched and helped during the joint resistance, which became a good story for a while.However, it seems that the improving momentum of Sino -Japanese relations has weakened. For example, Japanese companies withdrawn from capital, and Chinese leaders' state visits are postponed, and the old problems between the two sides in the old territory and the ocean are repeated.
Under the enhancement of uncertainty inside and outside, people's doubts about the strategy of China in the post -Abe period are also increasing.The author believes that looking at Japan's cognition of China must be comprehensive and balanced with strategic heights, especially from Japan's perspective of global strategic thinking about international relations in order to see the essence and not disturbing a moment.How to recognize Japan's definition of the new era of Sino -Japanese relations can become an important entry point for this kind of thinking.
First of all, the biggest highlight of Sino -Japanese relations in 2019 is that the heads of the two countries met with the CCP in two meetings in Osaka and Beijing. This is rare in Sino -Japanese relations in recent days.Tana Taro, former deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan, once mentioned in his memory article that when China and Japan began a strategic dialogue in 2005, because Japan believes that strategic dialogue can generally be carried out by allies such as the United States, so the final adaptation in Japan is Japan. Japan is Japan. Japan is Japan.The name of the high -level political dialogue; and China is called the Sino -Japanese strategic dialogue.
This time, unlike the past, in the case of Sino -US relations with the position of the new era, Japan can be said to have exerted initiative, and together with China, positioning Sino -Japanese relations as a new era. This is the independent choice of Japan based on judging the strategic situationEssenceThe author believes that in a strategic point of view, the definition of Japan's new era is not just about Sino -Japanese relations, but also for judgment on the overall pattern of the entire international relations
In this new era, in addition to the rise of China, more importantly, in the long run, the relationship between the United States and Asia and Japan is difficult to get domestic support. That is to.Change.
For Japan, which has long been based on the Japanese and American Alliance as the outline, this means that the expansion of strategic autonomy, which also means that Japan will face how to directly face China, rather than in the past, instead of using the United States as an intermediary.The old way to coordinate Sino -Japanese relations is a brand new thing for Japan.This strategic environment of opportunities and challenges is the most fundamental motivation for Japan to start Japan and the new era.
Second, the increase in self -confidence in Japan is the main domestic foundation for defining the new era of Sino -Japanese relations, which also injects new impetus into its diplomacy against China.In 2006, after Koizumi Chunichiro, Japanese politics experienced the turbulence of the Prime Minister almost every year; in 2010, Japan was surpassed by China and landed as the third largest economy; a major earthquake in 2011; in 2012, the Diaoyu Islands had seriously opposed the problem of the Diaoyu Islands.EssenceDuring this time, Japan has obviously weakened confidence, and the weakness of civil strife has dominated Japan's self -awareness.
Japan regain confidence in many aspects
In 2012, Abe has once again been elected Prime Minister's victory in the House of Representatives and the Senate elections.In October 2017, after the victory of the Japanese House of Representatives, Abe said at a press conference that under the leadership of the same president, he won three consecutive victories. This is the first time in the history of the party for more than 60 years.
Although Abe's economics evaluation is also speaking, at least the Japanese stock market has risen, the employment situation of young people has improved, and the pessimism of Japanese society has greatly improved the pessimism of economic prospects.In 2018, the Japanese Cabinet House conducted a public opinion survey of national life. It showed that the proportion of satisfaction for the current life was 74.7%.This is the highest value since 1957.
Although Japan has located from the second largest world economy, from the aspects of quality of life, comfort and safety, Japan re -realized that it is still a strong economic and social country.Important internal causes.
At the international level, there is no populism tendency to appear in other developed countries in Europe and the United States, and the economic and social order has stabilized.In 2016, Japan's Diplomacy Blue Book began to join Japan as a stable force for the international community. While promoting the interests of the Japanese national interests, it dominated the international community to realize world peace and prosperity.After the Trump administration decided to withdraw from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), Japan officially stated that it will continue to negotiate with TPP member states outside the United States.
Japan has reached an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Europe, and has reached a new version of the CPTPP Agreement (CPTPP) in the 11 countries other than the United States, which reflects Japan's leadership in the field of international economic governance.Abe's long -term visits under the long -term governance, coupled with the home diplomacy such as the Seventh Kingdoms Group Summit and the 20th National Group Summit, all show the international presence of Japan.Japan's judgment on the new era of international relations is important to the future confidence in regionalist and multilateralism.
This is why Japan has to continue to promote TPP even if there is no United States.The basic posture of Japan's international relations in the new era is open to the outside world. Whether it is attracting foreign tourists, open labor markets, or free trade agreements, it is the characteristics of the new era in the openness, which is consistent with China's basic posture.
At the same time, Japan also recognizes China's further development trend.As a world -world country and the fundamentals of Japanese neighbors, China will not change, which means that the development of strategic relationships with China is an unavoidable strategic issue.However, regardless of China or Japan, the vocabulary of international leadership is not familiar to them for a long time after the war, but in recent years, the strategic schedule of the two countries has been mentioned.
From the perspective of Japan, although the United States is still the only superpower in the world, it is increasingly unwilling to undertake the role of the world police alone. It is contracted and re -balanced strategic, and is plagued by the polarization of domestic politics.In Europe, two British laws with a large country's vision are increasingly looking in. Germany has been pushed into the position of international leadership providers. Japan also began to consciously realize that as a developed country in Asia, international leadership should be provided, but they should provide international leadership, butHow to use this leadership and how to coordinate with the rising major powers, especially China's international leadership, these are new strategic issues.
Third, the above -mentioned Japan's judgment on the overall trend of the international system and the new era of Japan and China, which derived, led to Japan's challenges of reorganization in the toolbox of China ’s strategic thinking and policy.After the war, Japan's diplomacy with China basically obeyed it in the Japan -US Alliance; in other words, from a strategic perspective of Japan, the main part of the toolbox for a long time is how to deepen Japanese -US relations through the developmentSino -Japanese relations.However, the latest polls show that only 24%of Japan believes that the Trump administration is doing the right thing, and the ratio of the Obama era is 78%.
The original toolbox of Sino -Japanese relations in the new era is obviously not enough, but the new tools have not yet developed. Therefore, the current Japanese political elites are divided by opinions on how to correspond to the new era.Still on the issue of Hong Kong, the consensus is not clear.
However, the author believes that although the sound of the eagle seems to be very strong, as a neighbor country that cannot move, it is not easy to simply confront the policy to become the mainstream.Since Japan's strategic autonomy will expand, Japan's strategic thinking about China can be used, which is not limited to the tools of the Japanese and American Alliance.In history, Japan has been coexisting with the long -term Asian boss China for 2000 years. It has richer experience in dealing with China. These historical knowledge may be resurrected to become the content of a new toolbox.
The logic and dynamics of the alliance will continue to affect Sino -Japanese relations, but the previous absolute impact gradually decreases.In this context, the third content of Japan ’s new toolbox of China’ s diplomacy in China is likely to be created by the Communist Party of China with new cognition of Japan and the process of new strategic interaction in China.Since 2014, Abe can be said to have effectively invested political resources for stable and developing Sino -Japanese relations.This investment is based on the long -term power of the power to think about Sino -Japanese relations strategically.
Abe has opened up tourism since its ruling, and Chinese tourists with 8 million people each year have played a great role in improving China's cognition of Japan. This actually lays a certain social foundation for regional integration in Northeast Asia.Another example is the recent statement of foreign ministers in the United States, Australia and Canada, and Five countries, and Japan has not participated.Although the European allies have not participated in Germany and France, considering that Germany and the European Union as a shield, and Japan faces the pressure of the United States alone, it can be said that the independent component in Japan's strategic thinking on China is increasing.
The new era of Sino -Japanese relations is an era of opportunities and challenges, plasticity and uncertainty coexisting.China and Japan are now facing the historic opportunities of the opponent to actively recognize each other, actively find the endogenous energy of Sino -Japanese relations themselves, and relatively reduce the American centralism deeply inlaid in the strategic thinking of the two countries after the war.The benign interactive mode of the US -Japan three sides is the key.
The changes of leaders will of course have a great impact on bilateral relations, but in the new era, Sino -Japanese relations will eventually build a long -term stable strategic relationship that can stand the test of internal political changes and have high strong toughness.
The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University of Japan
Although Japan has located from the second largest world economy, from the aspects of quality of life, comfort and safety, Japan re -realized that it is still a strong economic and social country.Important internal causes.
