Author: Tang Shaocheng
On the evening of the 10th, the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs rarely held a press conference on the PLA's training in southwestern Taiwan, calling on the PLA to not be a troublesome manufacturer.Cross -strait relations can be said to be treacherous and windy. At present, 4 theater in the mainland are in military exercises. Except for the United States, of course, it is targeted at Taiwan in many directions.
Looking at the current crisis of the two sides of the strait, the United States is indeed difficult to blame. At present, in order to deal with the mainland, the United States can greatly win the power of all parties, and Taiwan has also become one of the best weapons in the United States.Faced with the aggressive Western boxing of the United States, Beijing used the Taijiquan response of Rou Kegang. Therefore, the two sides can still maintain a cold and peaceful state similar to the Cold War.But in the face of China's humiliation load, the United States is very likely to increase the possibility of adding weights.
According to reports, the United States plans to send the State Council Caeshiti to visit the Director of the State Council recently, saying that it is necessary to discuss the issue of Taiwan and the United States.The political sensitivity is high, and this move does not get angry on cross -strait relations.If the United States prevents the Taiwan aggression bill, the difficulty of martial arts Taiwan will increase.The bill is clearly determined that if China violates Taiwan, it will authorize US presidents to use military power to respond, and there will be 5 years of date.
The strategy of Taiwan's backward side has now been trapped and tied to the predicament of cannon fodder on the American chariot.The model of the typical agent war, whether the goodwill of the United States is a disaster in Taiwan, is worth thinking of by Taiwanese.However, because about half of the people oppose the battlefield, coupled with the Minister of Defense Yan Defa, the army did not fight for Taiwan independence. In case of the future of both sides of the strait, such as the prerequisite of withdrawal from overseas Chinese and withdrawal from Taiwan, and the mainland also conducted mobilization and scare operations on the mainland.At the same time, the result is likely not as the wishes of the United States.
From the perspective of avoiding conflict and injury, because Beijing will try to avoid causing compatriots in Taiwan. If you really want to take the steps of the showdown, you should also take a paralyzed war, consumption war, acupoint war or beheading.Traditional annihilation war.Furthermore, US President Trump said in the 2016 election that if he was defeated, he had to engage in riots. This time he also said that if he was defeated at the end of the year, he would not recognize his account, which also made the US election safe at the end of the year.It has become a question.
Fortunately, the former Legislative Dean Wang Jinping will land on behalf of the Kuomintang to participate in the Straits Forum on behalf of the Kuomintang. This will have a considerable relief effect on the crisis of soldiers on both sides of the strait. It is similar to the relationship between the pressure cooker and the safety valve. I hope that it can resolve cross -strait deadlock to a certain extent.
The government has the obligation to avoid fear, but in order to stimulate Beijing, the relationship between Taiwan and the United States may increase. In addition to the mutual visits of senior officials, the next step may be a joint military exercise.The sound of discussion.I hope that these possible expectations should not be true, otherwise Taiwan will be involved in the vortex of Sino -US confrontation, it is difficult to get away, and the victim will be the first.
(The author is a researcher at the International Research Center of the National University of Politics)
