Luo Zhen: Inheritance is not only reflected in the continuity of policies, especially foreign policies, but also manifested as economic challenges and government power structure facing the Abe government.
On September 14, Japan will hold the President of the Democratic Party. The head of the official house, Kani Yoshio, the president of the government affairs investigation, Kishida Wenxiong, and the former director of Shi Panmao will compete. The Japanese politics will also officially enter the Abe era.
Shinzo Abe has a strong political influence in Japanese politics, especially within the Liberal Democratic Party, and its government is also called Abe's independence.On August 24, 4 days before Abe announced his resignation, Abe created history, and his continuous job day reached 2799 days. If the first time the cabinet was added, Abe took about 8 years and 8 months in his tenure.The longest record.For the results of the political, Abe said that in terms of economy, facing a shrinking for 20 years, it has created an employment of more than 4 million people.For work -oriented reforms, a total of 100 million people have taken a big step.In terms of diplomacy and security, a peaceful and security legal system was formulated.Based on the Japanese and American Alliance, the diplomacy overlooking the Earth was launched.
With Abe's support, Tan Yiwei became a popular candidate for the 14th election.According to Japanese media reports, among the 394 members of the Liberal Democratic Party, nearly 80 % of the support of Sugani Yoshowa, and the possibility of being elected as the new president is more likely.Abe has a close relationship with Sugi Yiwei. Since December 2012, he has been the official house of the Abe government's cabinet.Tan Yiwei also emphasized that if he was elected, he would inherit the Prime Minister's policy.This inheritance is not only reflected in policy continuity, especially the continuity of foreign policy, but also in the inheritance of economic challenges and government power structure facing the Abe government.
1. The Japanese government in the post -Abe era, the continuity of foreign policy is obvious
After Abe announced his resignation on August 28, he made a series of deployment in the field of foreign policy, or will set a tone for the new government policy.
Continue to strengthen the relationship between Japan and the United States.On August 31, Abe held a telephone conversation with US President Trump. This was also the first time Abe announced that he had held a telephone talks with a foreign leader after his resignation on the 28th.In the talks, Abe said that the policy of continuing to strengthen the Japan -US alliance is unchanged.Hope the United States rest assured.Correspondingly, the diplomatic and security policies of the three candidates who participated in the President of the Liberal Democratic Party ’s President of the Japan Liberal Democratic Party have different expressions, but they all emphasize that the Japan -US alliance is the base shaft.
Emphasize the relationship between Japan, Russia, Russia, and Japan, and achieve the final final accounts of Japan.To solve the problem of the territory of the northern four islands in Russia, and the problem of abduction Japanese with North Korea is the two core goals of Abe's two post -war Japanese diplomacy final account proposed in September 2018.When Abe announced his resignation, he emphasized that he felt heartache for failing to solve these two problems.The completion of Abe's non -competitive business may also be an important diplomatic direction of the Japanese new government.In terms of Japanese -Russian relations, on August 31, Abe held a telephone conversation with Russian President Putin, confirming that Japan -Russia Peace Treaty, including the territory of the four islands in the North, continued to negotiate.Abe emphasizes that he will be committed to conducting consultations in the future.Regarding Japan -Russia relations, Tan Yiwei showed an attitude that attached great importance to continuity.In terms of the relationship between Japanese and North Korean and North Korean North Korea, Tan Yiwei emphasized the solution to the abduction of the Japanese people, and said on September 2 that he wanted to meet and open up the way with the North Korean labor party chairman Kim Jong -un. This mood was the same as the Prime Minister.
Pay attention to the enhancement of Chinese marine activities, but avoid stimulating China.In terms of Sino -Japanese relations, Japanese cabinet officials have frequent actions, or they will launch foreshadowing for the Sino -Japanese relations in the post -Abe era.On August 29, Japan's Defense Akihaya Kasaro and US Secretary of Defense Esper held talks. Focusing on the East China Sea and the South China Sea issue, the two opposed the attempts to unilaterally change the status quo with strength as a background.important.According to Japanese media reports, this statement is to restrict China.On September 2nd, Tan Yiwei said that he paid great attention to China's defense policy and military trends, and emphasized that Japan would work with the United States to deal with China's enhanced missile capabilities.In addition, the attitude of three candidates such as Sino -US is also consistent with the deepening of Sino -U.S.
2. Under the epidemic, Sino -Japanese economic and trade relations have developed against the trend, but there are still doubts about future development
Affected by the epidemic, the problem of corporate failure and unemployment caused by the significant stagnation of Japanese economic activities is an important reason for the decline in the support rate of the Abe. The Japanese government in the post -Abe period also inherited this challenge.
The expansion of the new coronary virus epidemic has led to long -term blockage of production and logistics around the world, and the new Japanese government will also face this challenge.In the last few months of Abe's office, due to the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, the Japanese economy fell into a recession, and the Abe's government support rate also fell in a low position.In the second quarter of Japan, the actual GDP decreased by 7.8%month -on -month, and the annual rate was calculated by 27.8%, a maximum decline after Japan after World War II, and a decrease of 17.8%after the financial crisis in 2008.In terms of enterprise development, in the second quarter of 2020, all industries except the finance and insurance industry's industries often decreased by 46.6%compared with the same period of the previous year, and it decreased for five consecutive quarters.In terms of employment, Japan's employment situation is also very severe. The number of informal employment decreased by 1.04 million in June, which was the biggest decline in history.At the same time, China -Japan economic and trade relations have developed against the trend.From April to June, the only country in major countries, China growing positively is China, an increase of 3.2 %.China's resumption of work and re -production has driven Japan's exports to increase.According to data from the Ministry of Finance in Japan, Japan's exports in July decreased by 19.2 %, but Japan's exports to China increased by 8.2 % over the same month of the previous year to 1.329 trillion yen, a 6 -month increase.Japan has faced the aging of young children for a long time, and the domestic market has the risk of shrinking.China has a population of 1.4 billion. As the level of income increases, the thickness of the middle class will increase, and the charm of the consumer market will become more and more charm.
Sino -Japanese economic and trade development has doubts.First, there is uncertainty in the prospects.The intensification of Sino -US trade friction has also affected Japan in the same industry chain.In 2020, the United States has repeatedly treated Chinese high -tech companies, encouraging and even threatening allies to decide with China in the field of high -tech.For example, in the fields of smartphones and monitors, the trend of giving up in Europe and the United States is expanding.The uncertainty of the US policy has exacerbated doubts about Japanese companies' investment in China.Second, China's attractiveness as a place of production may be weakened.A survey of the Implementation of the Japan Economic Research Center and the Japanese Economic News shows that when Japanese business people interviewees asked how to view China as a production base, most people answered the importance of the future, and the proportion reached 41.2 %.Due to the slowdown in economic growth and rising labor costs, and the intensified friction between China and the United States, China's status as a producer has changed.Including Japanese companies, some foreign investment migrate the factory to Southeast Asia and other regions with lower laborers.
3. Whether the new Japanese government has sufficient leadership to solve the problem is still worthy of attention
Abe has formed Abe's unique government power structure in about 7 years and 8 months in about 7 years and 8 months.The Japanese leaders in the post -Abe period lacked Abe's strong personal influence. In the face of issues such as new crown pneumonia governance, domestic economic recovery, and intensified Sino -US confrontation, the new Japanese government may face the problem of insufficient leadership.Just as the Japanese media act as the next Prime Minister for what kind of person wants?As a result, the interviewees answered the most with leadership, accounting for 45 %.In the process of policy formulation and implementation, the possibility of leadership may make the policy more affected by local forces, group forces, and political parties, and face more challenges.
The success of the Abe's policy is to adhere to the strategic goals with personal and political leadership, and to be unrestrained in small demands.The new Japanese government faces severe domestic and foreign challenges at home and abroad. Whether it has sufficient leadership to solve problems is still worthy of attention.
(Note: The author is a researcher at the ancient think tank. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
