Chen Hongbin: The Middle East oil -producing country must change to survive with chang

Chen Hongbin

The sudden epidemic has caused the economic stop of many countries in the world, and the demand for oil has also declined sharply, which has caused the plunge in oil prices. Earlier, there was even a strange situation of negative oil prices.This situation is not a short -term phenomenon, and the Middle East oil -producing country, which relies heavily on oil exports to a large extent, has undoubtedly produced unprecedented pressure.

Over the past year, the oil -producing country in the Middle East can be said to have been in the middle of a long time.From May to June last year, the Persian Gulf continuously occurred in the oil tanker, and the oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia in September were attacked.At the beginning of this year, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Holy City Brigade commander Sulemani was killed. This series of trends have caused the situation in Persia Gulf to be in a crisis.However, that series of trends have pushed up oil prices, and the oil -producing country in the Middle East actually benefited.The unexpected crown disease epidemic has completely changed the global oil market. The oil -producing countries in the Middle East are now helpless and do not know how to deal with it.

Oil prices are largely controlled by petroleum speculators. The problem is that most of these speculators have a very superficial understanding of the Middle East issue or almost nothing.For them, compared with the stable market, the turbulent market will lead to huge fluctuations in oil prices. In this way, there is a greater room for profit, so they do not want the situation in the Middle East to be stable.

Of course, the fundamental factor that determines the price of oil prices is the supply and demand relationship. The supply is greater than the demand will lead to weak oil prices. If the supply is not in short, it will push the oil price. This is the general market trend.In the past, the main consumer countries of oil were developed countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe.Today, China has become the number one oil importer in the world, and the import of oil imports in Asian countries such as India, South Korea has also risen straight. The United States has changed from the number of imported countries in the past to an exporter.Essence

As far as the supply side of oil is concerned, in the past, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, Oil Alliance), which has been headed by Saudi Arabia, including the Persian Bay oil producing countries such as Iran and Iraq.However, in the 30 years of Hedong, Hexi, the domestic situation in Venezuela, the largest member of the Oil Alliance State, has always been turbulent, and Qatar has previously withdrawn from the Oil League, so the oil alliance's ability to control the crude oil market has declined significantly.At the same time, the movement of non -oil alliance members such as Russia has become increasingly noticeable. The United States has made it exceeded Saudi Arabia and Russia due to the breakthrough of shale oil and gas development technology, becoming the world's number one major oil -producing country.In fact, from the supply side, it is now a three -party romance between the Oil Union, Russia and the United States.

This has caused a lot of changes in the global crude oil market.The Middle East War that year has successively triggered two oil crises in the 1970s, and the relationship between the situation in the Middle East and oil prices is not so direct.In addition, countries importing oil from the Middle East are mainly China, Japan, South Korea, India, etc., so even if the Middle East is chaotic, it is mainly affected by the above Asian countries.

For the Middle East oil -producing countries, the efforts of the international community's efforts to ex -carbonization and vigorously develop renewable energy for many years have made the demand for oil in weakness.In the 1970s, what should I do if the entire international community is worried about the exhaustion of oil resources in one day?Now what the oil -producing country in the Middle East is worried that if countries will no longer need oil in the future, where will their way out?To this end, the oil -producing countries in the Middle East are now racking their brains to establish related systems suitable for post -oil age and do their best. The most representative of which is Saudi Arabia's 2030 vision plan.

In the past many years, the system of oil -producing countries in the Middle East has been roughly similar, that is, developed oil by state -owned oil companies, and then exported to the outside world. The foreign exchange is paid by the foreign exchange, and the country provides the people with extremely complete benefits and services.Most citizens of the country in the Middle East have become employees of civil servants or state -owned enterprises. They can not only get high salary, but also do not need to pay taxes. Medical and education are also free.

In addition, you can also enjoy subsidies when purchasing basic daily necessities such as food and fuel.As for the high technical requirements and various dirty and tired work, foreign workers should bear it.At that time, the oil -producing countries in the Middle East were simply a huge paradise, all of which worshiped oil.

For oil -producing countries in the Middle East, the revenue of oil exports basically accounts for 70%to 80%of fiscal revenue.Once the oil price falls, the state finance will face a severe test immediately.

For oil -producing countries in the Middle East, the key factors that determine oil prices are not the production cost of oil.The cost of oil production in oil -producing countries in the Middle East is basically about $ 10 per barrel, which is much lower than the shale oil costs in Russia and the United States.However, this does not mean that the oil -producing countries in the Middle East have the ability to withstand low oil prices, because as mentioned above, the years of systems have made these countries ensure that oil prices can maintain financial balance, otherwise the country will not survive.

The national conditions of oil -producing countries in the Middle East are different, so there is a great difference in the ability to bear oil prices.As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, the price it can bear is $ 85 per barrel, the UAE is about $ 70, Qatar and Kuwait are only $ 50, while Barin and Oman are as high as $ 100.Russia's tolerance limit is $ 40, so Russia's tolerance for low oil prices is obviously higher than the Middle East oil -producing country.The cost of shale oil in the United States is around $ 50, so it does not have the ability to fight a price war with Russia.

For oil importing countries, of course, the lower the price of oil, the better, but the higher the oil price is, the higher the oil price, the better.Too high oil prices will promote the development of renewable energy, leading to a decline in oil demand.As a result, the Middle East oil -producing country formulated a common production -limited policy to maintain oil prices, but this move actually benefited from non -oil -producing oil countries.They have entered the world, thereby increasing the share in the global oil market.

Today, the oil -producing country in the Middle East is facing a dilemma.If the price of oil rises, the biggest benefit will be the US shale oil manufacturer.For them, the ideal situation is that the price of oil is not too high or low, which is most conducive to maintaining its market share.In April of this year, Saudi Arabia took the lead in starting a price war and pushed the price of oil with the courage of the strong man's wrist. Unexpectedly, the oil price fell all the way, until the incredible negative oil price situation appeared, which was obviously unexpected by Saudi Arabia.To this end, Saudi Arabia has to cancel living subsidies from June this year, and regulated the value -added tax from 5%to 15%in July.

In order to establish a system in the period of oil, oil -producing countries in the Middle East can only continue to hang on the tree of oil.

The nations of oil -producing countries in the Middle East who have been used to a good life have taken for granted the opposition for the relevant reform policies of the government.Of course, they will have a sense of crisis when oil prices fall. Once the oil prices have risen, they will immediately go all the time.Therefore, the full efforts to promote the changes in the people's ideas have become the top priority of governments in the Middle East.Although the crown disease epidemic is overcome one day, the low oil price situation is obviously a long -term trend that cannot be changed.The end of the oil age is not an exaggeration. Therefore, the Middle East countries must plan ahead, respond to the trend, and formulate a plan early. Only in this way can we find the way out.

The author is a retired scholar in Shanghai, China

The nations of oil -producing countries in the Middle East who have been used to a good life have taken for granted the opposition for the relevant reform policies of the government.Of course, they will have a sense of crisis when oil prices fall. Once the oil prices have risen, they will immediately go all the time.Therefore, the full efforts to promote the changes in the people's ideas have become the top priority of governments in the Middle East.