Trial Time
Li Xuanfeng
In early July, China and the United States conducted military exercises in the Disposal of the South China Sea.U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo also issued a solemn statement on the South China Sea issue on the 13th, that is, the four -year Hague arbitration on the 13th.Methods to control the South China Sea, but also described the world that Beijing will not allow the South China Sea as its maritime empire.
In fact, given the trade volume of more than 3.4 trillion US dollars through the South China Sea each year, and its position is of great strategic significance, it is not surprising that the Southern China Sea's soldiers must compete.Furthermore, China and the United States have different understandings on the jurisdiction of the sea management area. Beijing strongly opposes any military operations in any Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), while Washington is basedExcept for the French Convention, the scope of the EEZ is the international waters, which means that any country has the freedom of sailing here, and the definition of freedom of course means that military activities are not limited.
However, it is worth noting that these are the facts of dozens of years. But why is the South China Sea dispute recently become a highlight of the Sino -US New Cold War?This will start with the Political Bureau of Washington.
Anti -China strategy becomes two -party consensus
The most straightforward reason why the United States has become more tough for China is the next US presidential election.Under the crown disease, the number of diagnosis in the United States has exceeded 6.43 million, and the number of deaths exceeds 190,000, allowing Trump, which was originally wins, fell from heaven from heaven.According to the US CNN polls, Trump's current support rate has fallen to 35%.In order to drive the votes of supporters, Trump chose to aimed at China at this time, tried to distract the dissatisfaction of domestic dissatisfaction, and re -guided foreign forces to solve his own urgent need, and also strive for a re -election opportunity for his firm position.Essence
In fact, this practice of using nationalism to make the people's attention is not rare, nor is it a conspiracy theory, but a must -have strategy that is usually uncomfortable in each country. In China, the United States is the same.
Furthermore, the anti -China strategy is basically the consensus between the two parties.According to the latest polls of the Pew Research Center, the Republican and Democratic Party members who hold negative positions on China are 72%and 62%, respectively.The American people generally dislike China. Investigations pointed out that nine Americans have threatened China's hard and hard strength and influence every 10 Americans, and as much as 62%of the main threats.
The direction of the people, referring to the ticket.It is certain that both democracy and republics will not hesitate to use this to make articles and strive for more support.Trump, who is still in the White House at this moment, will certainly not let go of this opportunity, because this may be the best card that he can defeat Biden on his hand.
When it comes to anti -China strategy, it is not difficult to see from the development of the past few months. Washington has gradually become a firm position: extra tariffs, sanctions, sanctions, and the prohibition of them from entering the United States and frozen the US assets.The Hong Kong Autonomous Act, which was effective on July 14, 2020, and the first time on the South China Sea controversy, it was reached by the nine series of actions.Just.
This means that the United States is finally determined to adopt a strong stance on China, rather than following the political considerations of priority of past trade.More importantly, this is in line with the reasonable interests and directions of the long -term blueprint of the United States.
For the United States, China's peaceful rise has never been discordant.Since 2013, China has constructed at least seven artificial islands and more than 2,300 acres of new land in the South China Sea disputed waters, and the role of these huge projects is only one to militaryize the South China Sea.From airports, hospitals, to military bases, reinforced land castles, simple runways, aircraft, to missiles, the construction of artificial islands has completely changed the strategic environment of the South China Sea.
According to research by the US Think Tank Strategy and International Issues Research Center (CSIS), China has deployed radar, bomber, J-11 fighter, cruise missiles (HQ-9, YJ-62, YJ-12B), and land on Yongxing Island and other islandsVarious strategic weapons such as air missiles.After the Sakama Group (G20) summit last year, the PLA conducted an air -missile firing in the disputed sea area, which involved a medium -range ballistic missile with a range of 1,500 kilometers of the aircraft carrier.The long -range ballistic missile of the nuclear warhead is Dongfeng 26, the range of the latter is 4,000 kilometers, covering the US military base Guam.
In other words, China's deployment in the South China Sea undoubtedly increased its strategic advantages and also directly challenged the status of Global Hegemony.Coupled with the improvement of the PLA confidence, ability, equipment, etc., and Washington, due to Trump's continuous damage to the ally, and the credibility of extending deterrence in the Asia -Pacific region, the United States is now losing its status and influence in the Asia -Pacific regionThe possibility of force.If the White House attitude is not tough at this time, Washington will always lose the advantages of the Cold War and the global hegemony.
Macro geopolitics consideration
That paper denies the statement of China ’s claim on the Nine Section of the South China Sea. What is it?
First of all, the United States publicly supports the ruling of the International Court of PerManent Court of Arbitration. It has a positive impact on both the international stage or the ally -ally relationship, which means that Washington is still an international police and respects international laws and guidelines. That is to refuse to recognize it.The strong difference between Beijing in Hague arbitration.
Second, actively strive for the support of the allies, strengthen and consolidate each other's cooperation foundation with a common enemy, and repair the allies that Trump has been destroying since taking office.In fact, from Trump's direct call as a Chinese virus, to Pompeo recently spoke to the future of the Communist China and the free world, and packaged the new cold war between China and the United States into the ideological struggle for core values such as freedom and democracy and human rights.In order to let the United States be able to play the banner of justice divisions, to properize the past and future, including sanctions and military deployment, and to use the British, the European Union, the European Union, and even Japan, South Korea and other liberal countries to participate in the anti -China League.
Third, when the United States condemned China ’s actions in the South China Sea, Washington also stated that it did not harm the sovereignty of other countries in the domain.This statement is obviously standing on the side of Ya'an and trying to win their behavior.From a macro perspective, if China -US wrestling is a new cold war, Washington undoubtedly hopes that Yajia'an can fight side by side as an allies, because in terms of local strategy, if the United States successfully forms an alliance with Asians, it can form a surround trend against Beijing.EssenceIn September 2019, the United States and Asianan jointly contributed to the first Asian'an MDASH; the US maritime military exercise.
Of course, this does not mean that Ya'an will rely on the United States.For example, Malaysia's 2019 defense white paper clearly states that paying attention to the continuous tension between China and the United States, and pointed out that Malaysia does not want to choose between the two; after the Philippine President Duterte took office in 2016, he has adopted a more pro -Chinese middle school.After its position, its foreign minister Luo Qin had previously met with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi video, and said that the two sides reached a consensus and identified all the non -China -Philippine relations in China Sea.
Although the Asianan country is generally held on the shore to watch the fire, it is undeniable that the maritime joint military exercise last year did draw the most perfect blueprint for Washington's Ministry of Event in the South China Naval Ministry of China.For 10,000 steps, as long as Ya'an can maintain neutrality and let the U.S. military have no worries for the time being, it is a great help to Washington.
In fact, if you discuss military backup alone, the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, Riden, and Nimitz, B-52, the same temperature-like bomber bomber to the military strength of ballistic missiles, are beyond doubt., Obtain air control andThe right of sea control is basically not a problem.This is why the United States must win the Aya safe country, at least the main reason for them to maintain neutrality.
At present, Sino -US relations have continued to deteriorate, and in view of the current conflict, many of them are from fundamental differences between the two mdash; MDASH; strategic significance, geopolitics, global hegemony, and ideology.Interests cannot be negotiated.It is foreseeable that in the future, the military situation in the South China Maritime will only become more and more tense, while the two sides confront and provocate continue, and the probability of unexpected guns will leap more.The dispute between the South China Sea is likely to evolve into a military conflict at any time.
The author is a researcher at the Institute of International Issues in Hong Kong
