Shao Zonghai: Who will ＂fire the first shot＂ in Meizhongtai

Author: Shao Zonghai

The author wrote a week ago to describe the density of the war of the Taiwan Strait: for example, starting from August 22, at least 4 military exercises on the opposite side of the PLA have been carried out, including the Yellow Sea, Bohai, Donghai, and the waters of the Xisha Islands.Judging from the at the same time, the PLA has also announced at least 9 exercise forbidden navigation announcements.

However, the United States did not seem to put the forbidden navigation announcement in the mainland into a warning. On August 25, a U-2 high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft in the United States broke into the PLA's northern war zone real-fidelity exercise forbidden flying zone.

In addition, in the South China Sea, U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft and aircraft carriers have always appeared frequently. Like the US ship Masting, it has entered the surrounding area of the South China Sea many times in 2020, including March 23 to the South China Haijiao ReefOn May 28th, to Xisha, sailing on the Taiwan Strait on August 18, and entering the Xisha waters on August 27.What is vigilant is that when the United States deliberately provoked military provocation in the South China Sea, it also announced additional to Chinese enterprises that will participate in the construction of the South China Island Reef.

As a result, China launched a total of 4 Dongfeng -shaped missiles to the South China Sea on August 25th and 26th, all of which are often sailing on the sea of the Haixi Islands in the South China Haixisha Islands in the United States.

But these incidents coincidence is: the U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft that broke in without authorization, no one has been shot down by artillery or intentional target;However, within the launch time, there are no US warships or military planes trying to try to go through the area of these missiles.

Is this a coincidence?Or, between the United States and China, there should be a deliberate consideration of self -restraint: do not want to evolve some military operations into a targeted military provocation.But theoretically, such restraint should be difficult to have the result of not wiping the gun at all in the case of real bomb operation. As a result, it has never been determined by the outside world: the military crisis of the Taiwan Strait can be controlled.Essence

But will the Taiwan Strait start the war?This may be accurate at this stage.However, from the perspective of the author's perspective of not a military researcher: the evolution of the future situation of the Taiwan Strait should not be judged in a military direction, but to review political measures:

First, during this period of military activities in the Taiwan Strait, there are indeed found that they are restrained between the two sides of the strait.Especially in Taiwan, in the video speech in the ASPI Indo -Pacific Leader Dialogue series on August 27, it can be seen that she is cautious.She has specifically pointed out that regional military activities are increasing, and we are worried that they will wipe their guns away.Therefore, she hopes that all parties will maintain an open communication channel to avoid misunderstanding and misjudgment.

2. Although the relationship between the United States and Taiwan has been rising, the DPP authorities have not easily touched the most sensitive red line in dealing with many measures about cross -strait affairs.The totem is highlighted, but no matter what changes, the official national name of the Republic of China has not been moved, and the national emblem has not been taken off.But this does not depend on the wisdom of the DPP authorities, but the bottom line of Beijing, and there is still a trace of self -restraint.

3. As for Beijing, although the leader has not yet heard the leader's statement of the current situation, at least some scholars have revealed the possible direction of decision -making.The problem is very sensitive, especially in recent days, the situation in the South China Sea has been upgraded, and the mainland will not take any new major measures at this time.

4. Once there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States abide by their promises to support Taiwan, and it must also see before or after the election in November.If the time point is before, the answer that Trump will get involved may be more clear.In fact, six items guaranteed to Taiwan are old tooth loss, but at this moment suddenly announced the real book, and announced on the official website of AIT, it has its special significance.

5. The predictions that are relatively certain are that the three parties of the United States and China will not fire the first shot; and before the results of the November election in the United States announced, Beijing will not easily shoot in the Taiwan Strait. First, to avoid providing Trump to use this to coax up on this coaxing to make upHis weak election, the other is to observe that once the Democratic Party's Bayeng wins, will he reserve room for negotiation between China and the United States?It should be worth noting.

(The author is Honorary Professor of Macau Institute of Technology)