Xu Jin: Abe has a great impact on Japan. In addition to Abe's economics, politicians' return, and the Japanese and American alliances, it is also his political heritage.The difference in his evaluation is also the response of Japanese history at the moment.

2020 is an upside -down year. Black swans take off in groups, and the new crown epidemic has made us feel historical experience at all times.Even so, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation on August 28 is worth a book.

Abe's resignation for his body originated from his own physical reasons.When he was 13 years old, he suffered from chronic colitis.He has worked twice and resigned twice, because the condition recurred.The Chinese say that the body is the capital of the revolution, and it really makes sense.

Who is the new prime minister in Japan?At present, the most powerful competitors are in Japan's Avant -Stock Defense Minister of Defense, Ishima, former Minister of Foreign Affairs Kishida, and the current official of Japanese cabinet officials.At present, many people think that the voices of Yoshiyuki are very high. If he is elected, it is estimated that the inheritance of Abe's political heritage will be the most complete.

Some Japanese friends told me that Abe is similar to that of Sakura. It is a person like the former Prime Minister of Japan's former Prime Minister Daiping Fang. It looks like it is stable. In fact, the wisdom is foolish. In fact, the kind of person who can achieve his goals step by step.

Back to Abe's departure, what is the big background?

One

As we all know, in December 2012, Abe became the Prime Minister again.By August 24, 2020 (this day), he has been the prime minister for 2799 days in a row, surpassing the former Prime Minister Sato.Speaking of which, Abe's grandfather was the former Prime Minister Kanosuke, and Kishimo and Sato Ryo were actually brothers, so Sato Ryo was considered Abe's uncle.

In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party has been unique for many years, and Abe has been considered strong in the party.Abe has more than a year as the term of Liberal Democratic Party, that is, September 2021.The long -term governance made Abe did not have a very powerful party competitors, and the public often thought he would be in power by 2021.

Although there are many gossip from Abe's admission to the hospital in July this time, Abe's departure is still an accident, causing Japanese politics to succeed in the storm.After all, Abe, as the longest time leader in Japanese history, has been in power for 8 years and 8 months together, creating a historical record.

The long -term governance makes ordinary people complain about Anbe when they encounter problems. On the other hand, they may also feel that this cabinet will always exist.

At the last time of Abe's ruling, the cabinet supported for a while.The polls released by the Kyodo News Agency on the 23rd showed that its support rate fell to 36%, and 58.4%of the respondents were dissatisfied with their epidemic to respond to MDash; MDash; 30%of the support rate, which is often considered the cabinet's life and death line.

However, after Abe said that the polls of the Kyodo News on the 29th have changed, and the cabinet's support rate increased by more than 20%.%.

According to the latest polls in the early September of the Asahi Shimbun, 71%of polls are willing to positively evaluate the Abe government.Overall, Abe's second prime minister career, although it has experienced epidemic conditions, the purchase of state -owned land scandal at low prices, the purchase of the Veterinary Medicine College, which is an additional academy operated by Abe's good friends, is basically safe to land.

Two

So, how to evaluate Abe's political heritage?

How to evaluate Abe's governance achievements, different people have different opinions, and have different opinions in the public account Xu Jin's economic person community and comments.From the perspective of Abe's governance, many people are still sure.Of course, I do n’t like him in some Japanese friends, especially university professors, etc., in fact.

Everyone's entanglement is also related to his background.Everyone knows that Abe was born in a political family. He also said before that his grandfather Kishimosuke and Uncle Sato Ryo were all the prime ministers of Japan. His father Abe Jintaro was a foreign minister, and his grandfather Abe Kuan was a member of the House of Representatives.

Abe himself inherited his political heritage, mainly from his grandfather, and the famous Kishimosuke before the war.Kishimo is a Class A war criminal and a post -war Prime Minister. It will not be said on the impact of Japanese politics. It also has a great impact on the Japanese economy, especially in industrial policies.Even a Japanese economist friend once told me that Abe's economics is not an industrial policy?

Three

Talking about Abe, naturally he must first talk about his Abe economics.

ABenomics is a series of economic stimulus policies implemented by Abe after coming to power at the end of 2012.

This policy once caused a lot of controversy.The core of Abe's economics, the so -called three arrows, is a loose monetary policy, strengthening fiscal expenditure, and structural reform.

How to evaluate Abe Economics?When I visited this question in Japan, I asked different economists. As a result, it was often different depending on the relationship with the government.Hongyi gave A+in the field of the first arrow monetary policy.Takeurazaka, who was once the pioneer of the reform pioneer of former Prime Minister Koizumi Koizumi, told me at the time that the aspects of Abe have done well, especially in terms of monetary policy.The running mode, he did this.Maybe you can give B+.

Nowadays, Abe's economics has promoted the weak yen for a time, making the Japanese industry recover, the employment situation is also good, the stock market is also rising, and the Japanese economy seems to have begun to enter a new stage.

However, its core effect is still questioned.My colleague and FT Tokyo reporter Robbine Hardin gave a simple conclusion in FT articles: Abe's economics was not successful. On the contrary, Abe Economics provided a lot of lessons.

First of all, despite the various loose buying of the Bank of Japan, the 2%inflation target has not been achieved.Not to mention, as the Abe government has to increase consumption tax to 10%, consumption is more weak, and the reconstruction of finance is far away.As for the last point, structural reforms, this may be the most needed and the hardest part of conservative Japanese society.In an increasingly conservative society, Abe cannot touch too many old -interest group cakes. The so -called structural reforms have not really strengthened.

Of course, Abe has done a lot of work, such as persuading agricultural groups, promoting the signing of the trade agreement, and emphasizing that women can act in the economy Mdash; mdash; mdash; change from an angle.In this way, you may not be able to do better.

In other words, Abe's economics is good at the starting point of revitalizing the Japanese economy itself, but revitalizing the economy needs to meet the principles of economics.These aging society like Japan seems to be too high.

Four

Secondly, Abe's politician tradition.

When Abe came to power in the early years, in the author's impression, the mainstream media in Europe and the United States did not evaluate him very high.

His high support rate inside and outside the party, his nationalist declaration, and the measures that he tried to modify the constitution, all made him more similar to a strong correctionist, not an ideal spokesperson for democratic society.Over time, after the resignation of Abe, the external evaluation was generally improved than when he was elected.

One thing that is worthy of emphasis is that Abe's strength, in addition to bringing such a radical reform of Abe's economics at the policy level, has also impacted the Japanese political ecology.In the Japanese society's power ecology, in addition to the political and economic circles, the role of bureaucracy is also very large. So far, there is still a side of an official society.Before I came to Japan to visit, I often asked others, who really develops a Japanese policy?Many people answer is bureaucratic, not politicians.

Bulletin is a lifelong system, and politicians are based on the election systemEssenceThe interaction between Nagita -cho, the official residence of the Prime Minister's official residence, and the Xiaguan of the bureaucracy, has always been a major feature of Japanese politics. The relationship between the two has both cooperation and subtle competion, or mutual use and mutual compete.

After that, politicians have always hoped to recover power from the bureaucrat.For the first time in the 1990s, the Liberal Democratic Party produced the Government of Hosagawa Huxi (Newborn Party), and gave birth to the concept of the reform of the bureaucratic system.After experiencing the efforts of Hashimoto Cabinet, Koizumi, Abe's first cabinet, and Democratic government, what is the result?Not only did the very powerful prime minister's residence, it also created the current phenomenon of Abe's strong.

In the Abe era, he or politicians, the momentum of the bureaucrat is obvious, and the Japanese bureaucratic power is facing contraction.The reason why this situation appears is that Japanese scholars compare this because the Cabinet Personnel Bureau has gradually grasped the personnel rights of bureaucracy.The phenomenon of Abe is also related to personnel rights. Personnel rights and pavilion's personnel rights are gathered in the hands of the president and prime minister.In this way, not only the different voices in the party are depressed, but the same is true of the parliament. It should have been a member of the Liberal Democratic Party Congress represented by the National Representative only valued the views of the Prime Minister, and therefore produced the emergence of political phenomena that figured it out.

In 2107, I once asked the former Prime Minister Hatoyama, how to treat the bureaucrat's question of being survived by politicians.During his last time he took office, Hatoyama also had the slogan of cracking bureaucracy.He said that during the Cold War, in general, if politicians were written according to the answer written by the bureaucracy, because there were no severe changes in that era; after the Cold War ended, the world had changed drastically and has been undergoing great changes.He commented that the bureaucratic system is suitable for adoption. In a relatively stable era, there is no need to interfere with much interference to lead the country to move forward. However, in this era, (bureaucratic system) is obviously not working, and politicians need to be led.Needless to say, Hatoyama, who has been the Prime Minister of the Democratic Party, is completely different from Abe on many positions.

In any case, the appearance of Abe obviously strengthened the role of politicians in the times, and even has the color of strong people's politics.Although this is different in Japan, FT and other evaluations show more recognition of this kind of power concentration. By focusing on the Prime Minister's office, Abe can force the cautious Japanese bureaucratic institutions to try radical new economic policies.After decades of economic stagnation, currency tightening, and debt rising for decades, Japan is obviously necessary to try some new paths.

Five

In the end, Abe's heritage was also reflected in diplomacy, especially Japanese and American relations.

Abe's points in the European and American world are related to his flexibility in the trade agreement.After Trump came to power, the United States tried to bypass the multilateral mechanism such as WTO and Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). At this time, Japan, which was headed by Abe, showed the attitude of defending free trade.

On the one hand, Japan concluded a trade agreement with the EU (EU), and even re -packaged the almost difficult -to -produce TPP as a comprehensive and progressive cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP).On the other hand, as early as 2019, the flexible Abe government and the United States successfully reached a bilateral trade agreement.

In Japanese society, the diplomatic level follows the United States is the mainstream.

In a sense, although Japanese society has developed, the heritage of McCarthed, the highest Si MacArthur in Japan in the past: On the one hand, Japan retains Emperor Showa and made many war responsibility discussions cannot be discussed throughout the Showa era; on the other hand,The Peace Constitution guarantees that non -military business has won economic rise again, and this also leaves endless problems for Japan's foreign defense relying on the United States.

In this way, the constitution given by the US occupation forces from time to time has become the focus of the leftist opposite opposition from time to time.Some rightists hope to have good careers with the United States and pave the way for the Constitution, while some left -wing, while defending the constitution, oppose keeping up with the United States.

On the surface, this is a problem that Japan turns left or right, but the essence of the essence is Japan's future, that is, how to be a normal country in the 21st century.If you stand on the history of the war before the war and re -examine it, you will understand this division.It is in this sense that the appearance and measures of Abe reflect the response of the trend of Japanese society.

This is history, ambiguous and coincidence.History has not ended. At least in Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party has been unique for many years, but has gradually lost the condensation of people. The mainstream public opinion tends to be conservative.Such Japan means different meanings for different people. It is also rich, peaceful, and peaceful, as well as degeneration, conservative, and closed.

The whirlwind brought by Abe becomes a breeze and goes away.The question is, is there anyone successively?Perhaps, for politicians, you don't need to care about polls or public opinion.For Japan, the seeds of change have been buried, and Japan in Asia will inevitably play its role again.(This article only represents the author's own point of view. Thank you scholars to the discussion and guidance of friends from economic people such as Ri Jisong and other economic people. More can be seen from the author's public account Xu Jin Economy (ID: Econhomo) and Xu Jin Finance (ID: jinfinance))