Han Yonghong: Chinas internal circulation domestic and international dual cycles

Early North to read

At the meeting of the Communist Party of China on September 1 at the meeting of the Reform Commission on September 1, Xi Jinping reiterated to promote deeper reforms, implement higher levels of opening up, and accelerate the formation of a new new domestic cycle as the main body and domestic and international dual cycles.Development pattern.

The internal cycle is a hot word on Chinese media in recent months.It first grasped the eyeballs of the outside world. On May 23, Xi Jinping proposed to the members of the CPPCC's economic community during the two sessions that it is necessary to gradually form a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic large -scale cycles as the main body and domestic and international dual cycles.

Later, on July 21, discussions with entrepreneurs, the Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China on July 30, and public speeches on August 20 and 24, Xi Jinping mentioned the above concepts.Careful observers can find that his complete expression has gradually formed from May, upgrading to acceleration on July 30.

Today, the internal and double -cycle will be included in the fourteenth five -year plan that the CCP is formulated, and there is no suspense.This goal suddenly became urgent, and it must be related to the pressure of the United States, especially in the past two years, especially in the past few months.

After the Sino -US trade war was launched in 2018, Sino -US relations evolved from a spiral decline to a free landing.Sale, and then to restrict the activities of Chinese diplomats in the United States, the United States has stepped in to force, put on a trend of cutting with China technology and economic and trade, and China seeks to protect the economy internally.

In the United States' siege situation, China ’s successful technology companies have been driven back to China. In addition to China's domestic political atmosphere, people have caused concerns that China may be forced to close or even locks out of the country from the official internal cycle expression.

From an economic perspective, this is too concerned that China seeks to strengthen domestic consumption, rely on domestic demand to increase growth, and reduce excessive dependence on external cycles.Since the reform and opening up in the 1980s, China, which was still poor and backward at that time, relied on a large number of cheap labor and low -end processing trade to achieve economic miracles and high -speed growth for many years at the cost of sacrificing the environment.After the 1990s, China also won the world's factory's reputation, but it has also been trapped in the uncoordinated economic model that has been trapped in the market and resources many years.In short, investment and core parts are from abroad and the market is also abroad. At that time, China only earned money for processing.

Data show that after joining the WTO, China's foreign trade dependence continues to rise. In 2003, its foreign trade dependence exceeded 50%for the first time, and in 2006 reached 67%.There are less than 30 %.

The official also recognized the unsustainableness of this model, and has been seeking changes, and successfully led the foreign trade dependence to 50.1%in 2011. By the first half of this year, it fell to 31.8%.Last year, the final consumption of consumption to China GDP was nearly 60%. At this point, reducing the dependence of external cycles has lasted for many years in China.

To speed up internal circulation, China will focus on increasing the income and consumption of residents.This is a good news for ordinary residents.In recent days, many commentary articles have talked about income and the restrictions on residents' consumption of high housing prices, and promoted the promotion of rural land reform, real estate tax, urbanization, etc., so that residents have more income, and they have the ability to consume more products and services and services.Essence

From the perspective of residents' income, China has a great space.According to the officially announced digital calculation in 2019, the per capita disposable monthly income of Chinese residents last year was RMB 2561 (S $ 511).At the two sessions of this year, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang revealed that the monthly income of 600 million people in China was only RMB 1,000.These low numbers reflect the projects that ensure smooth internal circulation, which will definitely increase residents' income and let the public be relieved from high house prices.

Furthermore, focusing on internal circulation also helps to drive the development of various modern service markets in China, such as leisure, education, pension and other industries, can also drive consumption.

Chinese leaders emphasized that the new development pattern is by no means a closed domestic cycle.In fact, this is also difficult to happen, because China has strong conditions and motivation to participate in international competition. As long as the West cannot be enclosed to the end, China's closedness will not happen. On the contraryImprove the growth of national well -being.

However, some people intuitively worry that the internal cycle is the idea that China has taken a closed old path, mainly not for economic concerns, but the feeling of information and politics.Over the years, China has shaped the bureaucratic organization, economy, media and online public opinion that emphasizes discipline; on the one hand, it has vigorously encouraged scientific and technological innovation to reduce debt risks. With this, it has successfully resisted the impact of the US trade war and crown diseases, but China and the external world haveThe gap between cognition is also expanding.Therefore, the authorities should be alert to the maintenance of the internal circulation of the national economy, and the internal cycle of ideas and ideas has also followed. This is the root cause of some concerns.