Author: Zhang Wang
On August 28, Shinzo Abe, who was in power for 7 years, suddenly resigned from the Prime Minister of Japan!
For a while, many analysts gathered the focus in the historical view and view of the Chinese party's candidates in the Hou Abe era. There seemed to be a logic hidden in the lines: candidates for friendly Chinese (such as former Director Shi Po Mao) benefited from the benefits of China.Japanese relations, and candidates who have a tough attitude towards China (such as the Minister of Defense, Kono Kono) are not good for China and Japan.However, is such a simplified interpretation method appropriate?
In 2012, Abe served as Prime Minister for three or two times.The authentic eagle in the Liberal Democratic Party has attracted the vigilance of Chinese public opinion at the beginning of the last Iraq, and he may continue to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, which has a Grade A war criminals, to incite the emotions of Japanese nationalism.However, it was this politician who was considered dangerous that he stopped visiting the Yasukuni Shrine during his term and achieved a long -term Chinese and Japanese head talks in 2006.The case of Shinzo Abe has led to an important question: Is the historical view of the Prime Minister of Japan and the Chinese view of the Chinese Prime Minister as a decisive indicator to observe Japan's diplomatic direction?
Prime Minister of Hawk to China
After Abe's Lightning resigned in August, it was habitually distinguished from the eagle and pigeons, or the pro -Chinese school and the villain. However, the distinction standard was not clear.If you define the eagle, if you say that you can visit the Yasukuni Shrine as the standard, the former Prime Minister of Japan, who has contributed to the Japanese emperor's visit to China in 1992, should also be regarded as an eagle.According to the former President of the Japanese Lisits (the second son of Grade A war criminal Akaka Nagraki Shiro), in the summary of the worship of the Yasukuni formula (exhibition and transfer, 2000), based on the Election agreement of the Hetai Supreme Society in 1991, Miyazawa MiyazawaIn April 1993, he secretly visited the Yasukuni Shrine.It can be seen that it is inaccurate to worship the Yasuki as the eagle standard.
Secondly, historical proves that the policy of Japanese Prime Minister, which is labeled in the hawk, may not be tough.Taking the issue of the Yasukuni country as an example, Zhong Zeng Kanghong, Hashimoto Ryomoto, and Abe were the neighborhoods of worshiping the Yasukuni Shrine before serving as the Prime Minister.In the 1970s, Zhong Zeng actively promoted the country's legislative activities to protect the Yasukuni Shrine; Hashimoto served as the chairman of the Japanese survivor association in the 1990s to promote the Prime Minister to visit the Yasukuni Shrine; Abe has repeatedly picked up China to interfere with the Japanese internal affairs on the issue of Yasuki in 2007 as the Prime Minister in 2007.EssenceHowever, the three Japanese Prime Minister faced the pressure of Beijing and finally chose to compromise in China.
Visit the Yasukuni country not only related to China
Why is the Eagle Prime Minister stop visiting the Yasukuni Shrine?There are often opinions that this is the result of the Japanese side's opposition to maintaining the overall friendship between China and Japan and domestic progress.However, historical data shows that the behavior of Japanese Prime Minister's behavior is closely clever. Whether to worship the country is based on precision calculations in the international and domestic political background: the former Prime Minister has given up in the former Prime Minister. According to his own memories, it was because of the Cold War of Japan.The great strategy; the concession of Hashimoto is related to the stability of the ruling alliance including the Social Democratic Party and the Congress election in 1996.As for Abe's compromise in 2006, according to Japanese political reporter Kiyomizu Shiner's setbacks (Japan Economic Press Press, 2009), the former deputy chief of the official house deputy chief of the official house, Shimura Bowen said that it was the 2007 Senate's election strategy.It is said that the original goal of Abe was to re -elected the Prime Minister for two periods and governed for 6 years.In 2006, Abe decided not to visit the Yasuki country in the early days of his office.The so -called friendly Japanese -China relations is just Abe's political rhetoric.After being stepped down in the Prime Minister in 2007, Abe was grandly visited the Yasukuni Shrine every year.
Do not simplify the internal affairs of diplomacy
The Chinese Prime Minister's candidate is distinguished into the eagle and pigeons. He wished that the Prime Minister of the Eagle School was not good for Sino -Japanese relations. The Prime Minister of Pigeon was on the stage and was conducive to China -Japan friendship.At the micro level, we need to grasp the laws of Japan's diplomacy in China, focusing on observing the domestic/party political situation faced by the Prime Minister's candidate/future Prime Minister.Prime Minister with weak internal affairs is often tough. For example, from 2001 to 2004, Koizumi Chunichiro, who was besieged by the Party internal Bridge,; while the internal affairs of the internal affairs were stable, there was a concession to China, such as Abe after 2014.From this sense, at this stage, the historical view and view of the Liberal Democratic Party's candidates are not enough.After the election of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party in September, it was systematically analyzed at the micro -level domestic/party's political situation and its understanding of the current world situation and the relationship between the current world situation and the Sino -US triangle.
Associate Professor of International Educational Department of Waseda University in Japan
