Middle Times Society: ＂China and India See the Blood＂ of the Taiwan Strait

Zhongshi Society

It is unknown whether China -India has resurrected border disputes to reproduce the bloody conflict of bleeding in June this year.In the last conflict, the Indian side did not announce the specific casualties at the cost of 20 casualties. However, photos of the Internet later showed that the PLA had held a funeral for the dead.

This is the first time that the PLA fought death after the Sino -US collision accident in 2001. It was also the first time that the bleeding conflict with the size of foreign titles after the Vietnam War was 40 years old, which broke out between China and India, which was actually surprising.As we all know, the Taiwan Strait is considered a gunpowder barrel, but there is no large -scale military conflict on both sides of the strait since the 823rd guns. After 1979, it has entered a stage of peaceful development.On both sides of the strait, the Sino -Indian dispute should have reflection and warning significance.

After the re -election of the Cai government, it has not shaken the basic principles of cross -strait relations such as the Constitution of the Republic of China and the regulations on the Cross -Strait People's Relations, but it can be almost determined that the development and deepening of foreign relations and foreign -related security areas are already for Beijing.100 % serious provocation.Recently, several consecutive social reviews of the Global Times have reflected Beijing's thinking and emotions.

There are still room for the mainland to stay in Taiwan

First of all, the Global Times involved the situation of the Taiwan Strait situation, and almost every article mentioned the anti -division method and the martial arts.This is a signal, which means that the Cai government has expanded international space, and it is getting closer to the red line that the mainland is identified as the mainland.The Tsai government believes that as long as the two sides of the strait are positioned and do not touch the fate of the constitutional system, they can prevent the mainland divisions from being famous. I am afraid that this idea is already wishful thinking.

Secondly, the Global Times has repeatedly discussed the possibility of the PLA military aircraft that directly leap in Taiwan to lead Taiwan and the normalization of the military high -voltage of Taiwan, indicating that the mainland military has long been prepared to wait for the peaks.The basis for the decision -making layer in Beijing depends on the progress of the United States and Taiwan.In fact, last year, the mainland military had broken the tacit understanding of the central line. This year's pressure was further enhanced, which also recognized that Taiwan expected that the first shot would not fire.

However, as the Global Times said that the greater the strength of the military pressure on Taiwan, the higher the risk of wiping guns and turning into war.Therefore, the Global Times has a posture of avoiding the war and fear of war. I hope that in addition to tough statements, it still reveals that Beijing does not want the Taiwan Strait to conflict.Therefore, a series of statements of the Global Times have demand for internal publicity, but the subtle signals released to the outside world need to be refined and understood.

Observing the political language of the land, it is often more important than saying that nothing is said. First, although the Global Times Agency review is fierce against Taiwan, it does not say that economic sanctions and the termination of cross -strait exchanges are countermeasures.Division, military pressure and economic sanctions may not be linked.Secondly, the Global Times ordered Tsai Ing -wen's name, but did not order Trump's name, and mainland officials have not criticized Li and Bian's treatment to Tsai Ing -wen, indicating that the mainland still has room for all parties to all parties.

In contrast, the attitude of Beijing's dispute in China and India is obviously not so polite.Although the official still hopes that the two parties will resolve peacefully through negotiations, the Global Times also releases ruthless words at the same time, and once conflicts occur, it is necessary to resolutely countermeasures.The difference is that compared with India's domestic anti -Chinese nationalism, there is no large -scale anti -Indian indigenousness in the mainland. Most of the discussions on India are mostly based on the principle of maintaining sovereignty, not for national emotions.

Although the contradiction between the Sino -Indian border dispute and the unique contradiction between the Taiwan Strait is two different issues, under the current macro situation of structural conflicts in the United States and China, the two are comparable.The conflict between the China -India and the Taiwan Strait has become a positive factors that are conducive to checking the mainland's eyes in the eyes of the United States. Therefore, behind the above issues, Beijing must be included in the general consideration of Sino -US relations.

However, the Sino -Indian dispute is not so complicated.First of all, India provokes conflict with border issues. Most of them are still digestion and transfer of internal epidemic out of control, economic recession, and political considerations of government prestige.The current power and reputation of the highest governor are very stable.

Secondly, the essence of China -India relations determines that the upper limit of border issues is the bloody conflict, but the sensitivity of the contradiction between the Taiwan Strait determines that once you see the blood, it immediately evolves into a comprehensive war, which is out of control.

The Tsai government needs to face the clear signal from Beijing, and to face the fact that the maritime conflict of the station is arbitrarily.Of course, the mainland knows that the DPP has no power to promote legal Taiwan independence. It also has sufficient power and rational viewing to interact with border golfers in Taiwan and Western countries.

The Taiwan Strait must not see blood, otherwise it is the historical tragedy of the Chinese nation.The three parties of China, the United States and Taiwan have not yet prepared for the blood of the Taiwan Strait, cautiousness is the best choice.For Taiwan, the Tsai government must take care of the United States and Taiwan's military security cooperation and interaction, balance the relationship between cross -strait, Taiwan and the United States, especially in terms of economic and trade exchanges and folk emotions.High -risk period before the presidential election.