01 Viewpoint
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigned from his post on Friday (August 28). At its press conference, Abe apologized for his support for many years, and also apologized for his departure during his term.Although more than half of the people's dissatisfaction in the recent month, Abe has always become the longest prime minister in governing in Japanese history. The key is Abe's economics.
Shinzo Abe just surpassed his uncle Gong Sato last Monday and became the longest prime minister in Japan. However, at the last press conference, Abe not only did not tout his political achievements, but he also left to the public when he resisted to the public when he left him to the publicIt is a pity to apologize and have failed to implement many policies.However, Japan's economic environment around the second term of Abe, if it was not a new crown pneumonia, Abe's economics may help Japan out of 20 years.
Abe Three Arrows
Even though Abe worshiped again in 2012, the Japanese economy had been weak as early as its youth.In 1985, in order to resolve huge trade, the United States forced Japan to swallow the square agreement. However, after the Japanese yen appreciated sharply, it not only seriously weakened the country's export industry, but also set a speculative boom in the financial and real estate market.But the good times are not very often. In the 1980s, Japan's economic glory due to the rise in currency purchasing power rose. It was not eliminated for five years.6.8%, slowly falling until the threshold period in the 1990s.
Although the Japanese economy once returned to light at the beginning of the millennium, in general, it was still hovering on the edge of the shrinking. The three arrows proposed by Abe in 2012 can be regarded as the most comprehensive reform measures after Japan's lack of lost 20 years.Specifically, Abe's stimulating economic policy includes large -scale quantitative easing, expanding government fiscal expenditure, and promoting private investment. In addition, it has proposed indicators such as rising goals and women's employment ratios to measure the effectiveness of reform.
The epidemic has led to the sharp decrease in tourists including Chinese tourists, which will affect Japanese tourism revenue. If the epidemic has not ended in July, the impact on the tourism industry will become obvious.The Japanese Economic News reported on January 4th that Chinese tourists' per capita consumption in Japan in 2017 reached 230,000 yen, with a total amount of 1.7 trillion yen, accounting for 0.31%of Japan's domestic GDP 54.31%.The picture shows the Olympic publicity event held at Tokyo Haneda Airport on February 19.(REUTERS)
Advantages of the devaluation of the yen
Although Japan's GDP growth after 2012 has not seen a breakthrough, some of Abe's economics can still be seen in other economic data.Since the large banking and looseness of the Bank of Japan, the depreciation of the yen has not only caused the export value index to climb slowly from the low position of 2015 to 154 in 2018; and the number of foreign tourists visitedAs of more than 3 or 1 million last year, Hong Kong tourists also increased from 480,000 to 2.29 million.More importantly, Japan values the tradition of local industries, and the depreciation of the yen has not increased the expenditure of imported goods, and the actual salary of the country still increases.
In terms of employment data, although Japan ’s unemployment rate has maintained at a natural unemployment rate below 5%, after the launch of Abe’ s economics, the country ’s unemployment rate also dropped from 4.3%in 2012 to 2.29%last year.Even if the economies of all countries have stopped due to the epidemic, Japan's unemployment rate in June can still be maintained at 2.6%, and the employment market is stable compared to Hong Kong and European and American countries.At the same time, the share of women's total labor population also rose from 41.9%in 2012 to 44%last year.Even though Japan's GDP has not seen the repeated pattern, these data can be regarded as the signs of the economy gradually turning.
If a new crown pneumonia breaks through, this year may be the harvest period of Abe's political achievements.According to the original calculation, Abe's consumption tax or above to balance the government expenditure, which can have been offset by the huge tourism brought by the Tokyo Olympics.The annual economic growth decreased by 0.8%, which indirectly caused the economic epidemic prevention period to be hundreds of pounds, and or organically completely eliminated the effectiveness of Abe's economics.
In any case, Abe's vision is undoubtedly a blueprint for reform in Japan.Abe dares to break through the inherent framework and reverse the economic structure in an aggressive manner. It is worth learning from the Hong Kong SAR government.Hong Kong Elderly relies on the old industry and ignores the development of a new economy. The government's concept of holding wealth is unwilling to assume the role of resource allocation. When will our senior officials be proposed in Hong Kong, which is suitable for Hong Kong, which can benefit from the citizens (especially grassroots),economics?
