Horizontal World
Although the rumors around Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have been rumored for a period of time, Abe held a press conference on August 28, which officially announced that he resigned for one year in his term of office, which is indeed surprising.Regarding the wrestling of various forces in the post -Abe period, the prediction of political confusion in political confusion, and whether the long -term regime has the influence on the confidence of domestic and foreign investors at home and abroad.
In diplomacy, Abe's realization of Sino -Japanese relations returned to normal track during his term of office. Sino -Japanese relations in the Abe period undoubtedly caused various views.The author believes that although Abe's sudden resignation has indeed brought about uncertainties in Japanese and foreign policies, including the policies in China, from the perspective of medium- and long -term strategic perspectives, it is necessary to calmly think and distinguish what will change, what will not change, and it will not change.What is temporary changes and what is the unchanged medium and long -term unchanged in order to be disturbed by a moment.
Three uncertainty after resignation
Abe's reigning time on August 24 exceeded the previous Japanese Prime Minister.It should be said that he has done a lot of things that the Prime Minister wanted to do but did not do it during his term of office, and the most fundamental political achievements lies in bringing the stability of domestic politics, and the diplomatic and economy brought aboutPredictability.
First, the stability of domestic political order brought by long -term regime.In 2006, the Japanese politics after Koizumi Koizumi went through the turbulent period of changing the prime minister almost every year.In 2012, Abe was elected again as Prime Minister, the Liberal Democratic Party has achieved the victory of the House of Representatives and the Senate elections three times.
In October 2017, after the victory of the Japanese House of Representatives, Abe said at a press conference that the Liberal Democratic Party has won three consecutive victories under the leadership of the same president. This is the first time in the history of the party for more than 60 years.At the same time, the opposition party was still in a state of division.After the Democratic Party lower the field, no matter in terms of ideas and policies, no cases that can compete with the Liberal Democratic Party have generally lack cohesion in other wild parties.
It can be said that after the second administration of Abe, the long -term regime for seven consecutive years ended the period of internal rift of long -term torture in Japanese political scenes.From the perspective of high -level politics within the Liberal Democratic Party, there are basically no particularly powerful competitors during Abe's term. This has played a great role in suppressing the traditional Japanese factional political influence decision -making process and personnel appointment and removal of personnel.
After Abe suddenly resigned, it was possible that politics to send valves may be re -raised, and there may be confusion in the change of short -term regime change.From a historical point of view, after the long -term regime such as Takeshita and Koizumi Cabinet, there will be a short -term regime for a period of time.If so, the possibility of sliding towards populism like other Western countries cannot be completely eliminated, and this is where the changes may be changed.
Second, political stability has brought economic recovery, especially domestic and foreign confidence in the expected Japanese economy.The average stock index of the Nikkei has returned to 20,000 points, and employment and consumption taxes have increased, and a prime minister has achieved two consumption tax increases.These are all the things to offend people. In the past, he was considered a ghost gate that was considered the prime minister. He had made it through and contributed to Japan's long -term fiscal health. It was impossible to realize that there was no long -term regime.Many Japanese Prime Minister wants to do but did not do it in Abe's office.
On the afternoon of August 28, the average stock index of the Nikkei decreased by 614 points from the previous day, which shows that the market has a stable trust in the stability brought by the Abe's long -term regime.In other words, although the effectiveness of Abe's economics is still divergent, the market's reflection has issued a positive signal.At the same time, the market has also issued a certain degree of concerns about the uncertainty of Japanese economic policy in the post -Abe period.
Third, political stability also allows Japan to view international relations and thinking about foreign strategies from a strategic height and long -term perspective.In terms of foreign relations, Abe stabilizes the Japanese and American alliances, and handles the impact waves in the process of replacing the U.S. regime from Obama to Trump.At the same time, Abe realized the return of Sino -Japanese relations to normal tracks, and the two sides reached a strategic consensus on the state visits of the head of state and establishing a new era of Sino -Japanese relations in the new era.
In addition, Japan has also improved the sense of existence in the relationship between the Seventh -way Group, the 20th of the Gemphor Group, and Japan and Russia.In the field of economy and diplomacy, the Abe administration has promoted the comprehensive progress agreement (CPTPP) for the overall progress of cross -Pacific partners in the United States, and made a commitment to maintain the global free trade mechanism and multilateral mechanism.
It can also be seen from the conversations published by leaders of various countries after Abe resign. His international evaluation is relatively high.For example, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong commented on his important role in promoting CPTPP, and Putin's evaluation and Abe have established a good working relationship.With Abe's resignation, whether Japan's foreign relations will turn inward and reduce the commitment to multilateralism and free trade, these are uncertain factors.
The biggest constant is social stability
The above -mentioned three major changes or uncertainties exist objectively, but we also have to see that the biggest unchanged in Japan is the stability and self -discipline of society, which will produce a stabilizer.From the experience of over the past 10 years, it can be seen that in the case of political instability or not leading the leadership, Japanese society has experienced three major tests, showing the ultra -long toughness, making Japan the most stable country in developed countriesone.
First of all, in the global financial crisis in 2008, the Japanese economy was impacted. At that time, Japan experienced an important period of political changes in the Democratic Party in the Liberal Democratic Party election.However, Japan does not have domestic political population and anti -globalization in some countries in the United States and the euro zone, and the social and economic order has maintained overall stability.Various polls show that despite economic difficulties, the public's recognition of the free trade system and multilateralism is extremely high.
The second test is under the background of the weakened leadership of the Democratic government in March 2011, under the impact of the major earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear power plants in March 2011. We see the self -discipline and self -discipline and self -discipline and reconstruction of Japanese society in disaster relief and reconstruction.Stability can be said to make the world unforgettable.It is difficult to imagine whether other countries have such unstable political power and encounter a disaster, whether they can also achieve Japan.The first two were the impact of the Japanese political situation extremely unstable. Japan has no populist, no protectionism, and no chaos, showing a strong social toughness.Japan is a third -rate politics and a first -class society.
The third test is a crown disease epidemic.In this epidemic, although government leadership has been greatly improved compared to before, there are still a lot of complaints in problems such as nucleic acid detection and masks.However, Japan can control the epidemic and mortality in developed countries in developed countries. At the same time, it can be said to be a miracle.Without a strong social self -discipline and stability, this miracle cannot be achieved.
From the perspective of the biggest constant factors of the stability of Japanese society, the characteristics of the strong Japanese society means that the domestic politics of Japan in the post -Abe era is unlikely to return to the past.The needs of public opinion.Political transparency is a very important social expectation. If it violates the trend of this era, the social foundation of the new Prime Minister will not exist.
Japanese elites and people have seen that other developed countries have the danger of political population.Although public opinion is still low in China, if politicians try to use Sino -Japanese relations as the issue of election centers, it will trigger the public's alertness of Japan's strong post -war democracy and peaceism.This inherently inherent power for the general direction of Japanese society is the biggest self -control force.
Judging from the political and social interaction during the end of 2012 to 2020, society is generally welcomed by a prime minister who can provide strong political leadership to bring stability to Japanese politics.The negative effects of diplomatic and society and other levels have undergone the basic consensus after profound reflection.Various public opinion surveys showIn the reason for Abe's cabinet, except for answering that there are no other supporting parties, the most answered is Abe's leadership.
The public hopes that Japan will play a greater role in the world and the big goals that the Japanese country recognition will be redefined. There is no essential differences with the political elite, but there is no consensus in the way and speed.
On the other hand, the image of the Prime Minister is deeply rooted in Japan. Although the public has expectations for its leadership, it is still not assured whether it will abuse leadership.The people are worried that the too powerful Abe Liberal Democratic Party may shift the focus of work from economy to constitutional amendments and historical cognition. For example, at this press conference, Abe mentioned that it is an example if it is not realized that the problem of constitutional amendments is.
The Japanese people do not completely oppose the amendment of the Constitution, but they are cautious on the core issues directly involved in the core changes in the post -war national identity in Japan.This is why the ruling party has controlled more than two -thirds of the majority seats in the two courts of the Congress of China during the Abe's appointment, but there is still no fundamental reason for the constitutional amendment.
In this sense, the political and diplomacy of the post -Abe period may bring objective existence.At the same time, it is necessary to clearly see that the biggest constant stability of Japanese society stabilizes.In this sense, the stability and development of Sino -Japanese relations in the medium and long -term stability and development of Sino -Japanese relations need to truly consider the social relations between the two parties.From China, how to develop its own soft power for Japan is the key to establish a sustainable Sino -Japanese society with Japanese society.
At present, Chinese tourists visiting Japan are close to 10 million people per year. In the future, it is a question to be considered to be considered to increase the Japanese.The substantive cooperation relationship between China, Japan, and cities is also very important. Establish a local and Japanese friendly relations network with toughness and toughness to expand the breadth and depth of Sino -Japanese relations., Lay a solid social foundation.
The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University of Japan
From the perspective of the biggest constant factor of the stability of Japanese society, the characteristics of Japanese strong society means that the domestic politics of Japanese politics in the post -Abe, and the possibility of returning to the past politics or secret room politics is unlikely, because it does not meet the mainstream public opinion.The need.Political transparency is a very important social expectation. If it violates the trend of this era, the social foundation of the new Prime Minister will not exist.
