Abes ＂illness retreat＂: There are episodes and political conditions that defeat

On the afternoon of August 28, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a press conference in the official residence, clarifying the intention of the prime minister in advance. The reason was that his health was deteriorating, and it was difficult to continue to fulfill the position of Prime Minister.

On August 17 and 24, Abe rarely received medical examinations for two consecutive weeks.In 2007, when Abe served as Prime Minister for the first time, he stepped down in advance for ulcer inflammation.

Since the second time to the Prime Minister's House in December 2012, the government, known as Abe's independence, has gone through about 7 years and 8 months. Abe himself has also become the longest prime minister in Japan.The term of office was originally about September 2021.

Abe, who resigned at the new crown epidemic, apologized to the citizens sincerely.He also emphasized that there will be no temporary agent prime ministers and continue to ruling until the successor.Abe also said that he would not consider withdrawing from politics. When he elected in the next high school, he would participate as a member of the parliament.

The most direct reason for Abe's resignation is that the body is not allowed.In July, the Japanese media exposed the rumors of Abe Tomburizing. In August, Abe went to the hospital twice to conduct non -routine physical examinations, 7 hours at a time, 3 hours at a time.

Although Abe himself and the official residence of the Prime Minister have always denied and emphasized that Abe's ability to govern is not a big deal, it is just over -fatigue.However, in the wild party, he even moved out of the Constitution and asked Abe to hold an interim Congress to explain the corresponding condition and the epidemic.In addition, you can still persist during the Congress rest. Once a Congress is held, it is estimated that the condition cannot be concealed.

The positioning of the press conference on August 28 is the epidemic description and Abe's own illness explanation.Unexpectedly, at the reporter's enrollment, NHK took the lead in reporting that Abe was about to announce his resignation.

On the other hand, since the epidemic, the Abe government has been lacking in response, and the faint tricks represented by Abe's mask have continued to decline. The media and observers believe that the Abe regime is much time.However, because of the first time that he had resigned when he was the Prime Minister, most of them thought that Abe would not be able to live.

A few days ago, Abe just set another record, becoming the longest consecutive prime minister in the history of Japanese constitutional government, that is, the Meiji Restoration.In fact, coupled with the first time to serve as the Prime Minister, Abe has long become the longest governing prime minister, but as a single prime minister, he did not surpass Sato Rongzuo until the 24th of this month.Nobuya's brother.

As the longest -term appointment in history, Abe may not be willing to retreat.Since last year, Abe has been looking for political heritage outside the Olympic Games.However, in the case of unknown Olympic future, there is no peace treaty in Russia and the progress of territorial territories, and the mutual trust of the head of the head of China and the mutual trust of the East China Sea has opened the trade war model for South Korea.

When serving as the prime minister for the first time, Abe had developed his historical amendmentism and launched Abe's economics, but he was more enthusiastic about history and politics.However, the resistance in the society and the constraints within the party made Abe's difficulties. Before the election, he was lacking in his performance and lost the election. However, Abe did not choose to resign, but he said he resigned, and even considered a ingredient.

Since the Second Palace, Abe has continued to focus on Abe's economics, and political and historical issues have continued.After the worship of the Yasukuni Shrine was publicly disappointed by the Obama administration, he was more careful to balance the economy and diplomacy.In China, Abe is also a two -sided method, winning the explosion of Chinese tourists in Japan, supporting Abe's economics.However, people are not as good as heaven. Once the epidemic, Abe's economics has worked hard for seven or eight years and returned to the departure.According to Japan Economic News investigations and estimates, Japan's economic losses are huge, and it takes five years to recover.

In the situation where the main Abe's economics is in trouble, Abe may choose to look at the problem from another angle: instead of leaving more political heritage, it is better to reduce political regrets.The replacement of the idea is a liberation of Abe himself, and it has also become a political aesthetics that he surpasses the uncle and his ancestors.

As for who is Abe's successor, a public opinion survey by the Japanese media shows that MP Shi Panmao has the highest voices in the folk as the next prime minister's candidate.Shi Po was regarded as Abe's enemy. In the election of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party in 2012, Abe reversed Shi Pocao in the second round of votes and won the thrill in the second round of voting.

However, the news from the Japanese media from the people around Abe shows that Abe and his factions will never make Shi Po Mao a later person.Although Shi Po Mao is very popular in the local and Liberal Democratic Party's local organizations, according to the rules of the Election of the President of the Democratic Party and the relationship between the Liberal Democratic Party, no matter who the opponent is, the two members of the two houses who will vote will be at least 150.people.

The Liberal Democratic Party's party regulations stipulate that at the Liberal Democratic Party conference held at the previous president, the Liberal Democratic Party ’s members and senators one vote for each.The same number of tickets.For example, in 2018, the President of the Liberal Democratic Party was selected, with 405 votes of parliament votes, and party members' votes were also 405 votes.In the first round of elections, more than half of the number of votes were elected as the party. If no one received half of the first round, in the second round of voting, the two people with the largest number of votes competed. There are only two members of the two houses.

The Japanese media believe that Abe's Italian people are Kishida Wento, the president of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party ’s Government Investigation. Because Kishida did not take the lead in the 2018 president’ s election, he chose to support Abe. Therefore, Abe and Deputy Prime Minister Matsuya wanted Kishida to take over.However, in the process of responding to the new crown epidemic, Kishida was affected by Masheng's policies and other policies, which was inconsistent, offending the joint governing Gongming Party, coupled with the throne of the chairman of the chairman, and the second order of the current director of the current chairman.The relationship between Junbo and its factions is also very poor.

As a Abe's crisis manager, the official chief of the Cabinet Governor Tan Yiwei never revealed his ambition to the Prime Minister's throne. The action was honest, and the footprints were stable step by step.Although the relationship between Abe and Sugawa Weiwei in the emergence of the epidemic became worse, and even in the response to the epidemic, there were two people who did not cooperate with the epidemic caused an exacerbation of the epidemic.Tan Yi's energy is getting stronger and stronger.

Although Supu Yiwei does not belong to any factional valve, he has a high popularity among the valve members. At the same time, the members headed by him have more than 100 members who have participated in the members of the members.But Kuyi's age is a short board. He is older than Abe, and is now 71 years old.

In addition, there are several people in the Hosian faction of Abe also look at the original defense Xiangya fields and the original education Xiangxia Village.

The current defense of any faction is also a person who has to mention.Kono is very popular, and the Japanese think he dares to say.However, in the past two years, Kono Kono's unique moves one by one, especially after the epidemic, took the lead in proposing to join the five -eye alliance, and said that equipped with attack -type missiles had nothing to do with China and South Korea.The plan, but finally gave up halfway.

To be the Prime Minister of Japan, the support of the United States is indispensable.The relationship between the Abe's and the Trump administration is undoubted, but Abe and the US Democratic President's candidate and former Vice President Biden are suspicious.At that time, Biden, as the vice president, was the first that the Peace Constitution in Japan was formulated with the help of the United States. The implication is that it must not be allowed to revise the constitution of Japan independently.And the autonomous constitution is Abe's wish, and Abe has been successfully elected the prime minister four times.Regarding the next political situation of the Liberal Democratic Party and who became Abe's successor, the results of the results of the US election in November are also a key factor.