01 Viewpoint
Last Friday (August 28), the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation after becoming the longest in Japanese history, and became a big international event.Since Abe has already expected Abe's resignation due to the economic problems caused by the epidemic, it is not surprising that he announced this time.What is more concerned about International is that Abe's departure will change to East Asia's political situation.
The Pavilion of Shinzo Wan was ended in 2021. This year should be the end of the end.Japan was originally scheduled to hold the Olympic Games in August. With the economic effect of the Olympic prosperity, he is more likely to successfully promote the long -awaited constitutional amendment and retire as the longest prime minister in Japan.However, the new crown epidemic broke out this year. The Japanese government did far from the issue of epidemic prevention. It is not ideal. The long -awaited Olympic Games will also be postponed. As a key international tourism in recent years, the international tourism has completely paused, which greatly combined the Japanese economy and the governance of Abe's governance to Abe's governance.The status has formed a major blow, and it has already guess whether Du Abe will resign.Abe resigned this time with health issues, but it is estimated that it has nothing to do with the various problems caused by the new crown epidemic this year.
Abe is not only to go, and the international is more concerned about who will take over the position of the Prime Minister, and how the post -Abe era will affect the political situation in East Asia.In particular, the wrestling of China and the United States continues to heat up, and how Japan, which is sandwiched between China and the United States, does not affect the wrestling of the two countries in the future.After the second worship of Abe in 2012, Sino -Japanese relations have improved a lot, economic relations have increased, and it has reached ice -breaking cooperation on issues such as the East China Sea.Many comments are therefore believed that Abe is a pro -China faction, and he resigned as the position of Zhaosu when the wrestling of China and the United States became whiter, which means that the Abe era may be more intimate and anti -anti -China.Strike.Coincidentally, in the Hong Kong issue and the Diaoyu Islands, they have criticized China, and said that Japan's defense of the Five Eye Alliance that Japan should join the United States is interested in competing the Prime Minister.It is likely to be biased towards the United States.
Liberal Democratic Party non -iron plate
However, there are several major problems in this view.First of all, the view that Abe is regarded as a pro -China faction is inaccurate.Starting from the second worship, Abe's political calculation is mainly in Japan itself, and its biggest political purpose is to develop the Japanese economy.Therefore, he launched a series of measures such as Abe's economics and vigorously developing tourism to stimulate the economy, and his international attitude in Japan is inclined to follow the trend.During the trade war of China and the United States, Japan and the European Union signed a trade agreement that reduced tariffs and supported multilateralism. Obviously, Japan did not want to be too traveled in the dispute between China and the United States.The impression of Abe's pro -China is just because objectively, the United States cannot give Japan more excitement, but it can bring greater economic benefits with China.After Trump came to power, he violently criticized Japan and the United States and used tariffs to threaten Japan.Abe actually swallowed this. The Japan -US trade agreement almost unilaterally reduced the tariffs on the import of Japanese agricultural products in Japan, which was completely beneficial to the United States.In the new book of former US National Security Consultant Bolton, Bolton, a new book that Kat Trump, also pointed out that Trump believes that Abe is the most obedient among the heads of state.
It can be seen that Abe just worked hard to find Japan's way out in China and the United States, and the label of the pro -Chinese middle school only looked at the surface and not the context.Since Abe is not a pro -Chinese middle school, there is no idea that his Japanese government will become less pro -Chinese after his departure.In fact, the structure of the Liberal Democratic Party is quite complicated, and there are too many interest groups they represent. Among them, they include both the right -wing conservatives of traditional pro -American anti -resistance and many large enterprises with interests as the previous topic.Among these large consortiums, many companies that do business with Chinese business with China are the second -step Junbo, known as the Democratic Party steward, is the famous representative of this interest group, and it is also the backbone of the pro -Chinese school.The two forces of relatives and anti -China have long existed in the Liberal Democratic Party. Which of which has the right to speak, in fact, the relationship with who is the Prime Minister is not too great, it depends on the overall interest relationship.The outbreak of the outbreak this year, suddenly the economy was sinking, and the pro -China sentimental rights representing the economy declined naturally. In addition, the topic of the issue of Hong Kong issues, the traditional right -wing momentum suddenly became larger.Before Abe resigned, it had been seen that the representatives of the right wing mastered the criticism of China, and Abe's stay must not have much impact.
How will the Sino -Japanese relations develop in Abe in the end?Japan's political environment is always relatively closed. As the largest political parties, the Liberal Democratic Party represents different political groups and consortia. Among them, the prime minister of governing must balance the interests in all aspects, and the unique situation has been in disguise.There are relatively few opportunities for populism.Therefore, the current discussion who will succeed Abe is actually not an indicator that is very effective in understanding Japan's future attitude.Looking at the current situation, during the new crowns dominated the period of economic development, the right -wing pro -American school seems to have the right to speak for a while, which will bring some difficulties for the China -Japan Guan in the short term.However, in the current pattern, Japan is still economically inseparable from China's growth. Even if the epidemic has disrupted some relationships, as long as the epidemic can gradually pass, this economic factors are still quite influential in Japanese politics.Therefore, Sino -Japanese relations are not worse.
