Author: Peng Shengyu
You can noted that Trump's recent polls show that the gap with Biden has narrowed significantly.The Trump election poll has stopped falling.
Time may cure some contradictions.Over time, the concerns about the epidemic in the swing state are decreasing, and Trump's support rate has risen.[Overseas Chinese News] The latest polls show that in six swing states, voters' concerns about the new crown virus have declined, and Trump's support rate has increased.CNBC reported that CNBC/Change Research polls announced on Wednesday (26th) showed that 66%of voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconson State said that they were seriously concerned about the new crown epidemic.EssenceThis ratio has decreased compared to the results of the investigation (69%) two weeks ago.The proportion of respondents with a very serious concern for the new crown epidemic decreased from 49%to 45%.
At the same time, 48%of the voters in these states expressed their recognition of Trump's work, and 52%of the respondents expressed their opposite opinions.Two weeks ago, 46%of voters were satisfied with Trump's work, and 54%did not recognize.
In terms of the performance of the new crown epidemic, the support rate of the president rose to 47%, the highest level since mid -May.Earlier this month, only 44%of the respondents expressed their way of supporting Trump to deal with the epidemic.
The poll visited 4,904 voters from 6 swing states from last Friday to last Sunday, with an error range of 1.4 percentage points.
As public opinion changes, the new crown epidemic in the United States seems to be relieved.The United States is one of the countries with the worst affected by the world's epidemic, but the number of new cases, the number of admission and the number of admission, and positive rates have steadily declined.
Although the polls showed the presidential campaign competition fiercely, Bayeng still led Trump with 49%to 46%in these key states.Among these 6 states, his support rate in 5 states exceeded the current president; and in North Carolina, the support rate of the two was almost the same.
Police investigations conducted by another institution have also shown that Trump's polls have stopped falling.On August 6th, Hill-HarrisX launched a polls launched by Hill-Harrisx. If the 2020 presidential election is held today, 43 % of voters will vote for former Vice President Biden, and 40 % of voters will choose Trump.It is worth noting that the leading advantage of the Democratic presidential candidate Biden has dropped from 7 percentage points in the survey from July 17th to 20th to 3 percentage points in polls from August 2nd to 5th.Taking into account the remaining voters, 5%of voters said that if the elections are held today, they will vote for others; and 3%of voters say they do not intend to vote.This means that 9%of voters in voting are still uncertain.The survey found that the reason why Biden's leading advantage recently reduced was that Trump had the upper hand in voters of the two major population statistical indicators.In a recent public opinion survey, the support rate of Trump in the central and western regions rose from 38 % to 42 % two weeks ago, and the support rate for Biden fell from 45 % to 39 %.In addition, Trump also received 35 % support in the latest public opinion survey among non -party voters, adding 4 percentage points over the last survey.In contrast, only 33 % of non -party voters prefer Biden.Hill-Harrisx survey was conducted online among 2,850 registered voters from August 2nd to 5th.The error amplitude is 1.84 percentage points.
However, the reality is always full of dramatic. According to the latest public opinion survey, the support rate of Biden is 49%among the 15 swing states, while the US President Trump's support rate is 48%.During this time, the Trump team worked hard to successfully pull back the support rate of both parties.
You know, in June or July a month or two, it can be said to be the most ugly time for Trump's polls.
On July 15th, a new national poll from the University of Cinniliak in the United States showed that Democratic candidates and former vice president Joe Middot; Biden led 15 percentage points to Trump with 52%to 37%.In the polls conducted in mid -June, Biden led 8 percentage points ahead of Trump. In this survey, the gap between the support rates of the two was nearly twice the last time.In response to the new crown epidemic, Biden led Trump with a support of 59%to 35%; in terms of crisis, Biden led the 57%to 38%support;The support rate is twice as much as Trump; even in Trump's traditional economic issues, Biden also led a leading support for 50%to 45%.Trump's overall work recognition fell to 36%, a decrease of 6 points from the data in mid -June.In terms of economy, Trump's work recognition is also hovering between 44%-53%, the lowest position since August 2017.Investigators at the University of Cunnipik interviewed 1273 registered voters across the country, and the scope of errors was said to be within 2.8%.
Reference News Network reported on July 24. According to the DC Washington News, the latest poll of Fox News shows that in the three key swing states, US President Donald Middot; Trump's support far behind his opponent, Former Vice President Joseph (Joe) middot; Biden.In Michigan, Biden's support rate led Trump with 49:40, and in 2016, Trump won the state election victory with a weak advantage.Among the female voters in Michigan, Biden's support led 18 percentage points, showing that Trump's support among female voters continued to deteriorate.In Pennsylvania, 50%of voters supported Biden, and Trump's support rate was 39%.
U.S. politicians reported on July 23 that the Institute of polls of the University of Cinpiak University in Connecticut, from July 16th to 20th, interviewed 925 Florida registered voters, of which only 38%expressed support for Trump51%of the respondents supported Biden.Florida is a key state in the US presidential election. There are 29 votes in election, second only to California and Texas.This is also a swing state in previous elections. Polls show that Trump's support in Florida has lagged behind Biden for 13 percentage points.In the same polls 3 months ago (April 22), Trump still lags 40%of Biden at 46%support for 46%.
Public opinion at home and abroad and scholars have previously worried that if the development of the epidemic has led to Trump's despair of re -election and losing confidence in a huge departure crisis, it may be the biggest detonation point that stimulates Trump's choice of war.If the epidemic continues to be upgraded, it will seriously affect the election, so that Trump will think that he will end his political career. In order to re -election, the president of the businessman will be very likely to be courageous. It will not be ruled out that the appropriate object will launch war and condense support.Transfer internal contradictions and achieve reelection!At the time of despair, in order to re -election, the president of the President of the War has not ruled out that Trump might be mixed, lonely, risked and risked, and risked to start a war.
U.S. Political Analysts, Ded Galen, said that if they cannot control the epidemic, the US presidential election in November will be the darkest time of the US President.At that time, Bush could break the curse of Bush to achieve re -election, and supported the records of Afghanistan and the Iraq war.Although the current president of the United States does not like Bush and does not like Bush, he knows that Bush's strategy of war has the most direct and effective strategy.If the rabbit is in a hurry, you will bite people, and the dog will jump the wall when you are in a hurry!The outbreak of the new coronary virus in the United States is not a disaster in the United States, but the disaster of the US president. If Trump really desperate for re -election, he will indeed consider war.
Whether Trump is desperate for re -election is whether he can make the biggest trigger point for a dog jumping wall to launch a war.
Fortunately, from the momentum of the current polls to stop falling back, the current poll situation should not be limited to despair.And this will directly make Trump more likely to stop using war to achieve re -election.
Although the epidemic response failed, the American people did not attribute all their mistakes to Trump, and a poll in the United States showed it.65%of voters think that it is still the fault of people who still do not stay at home at this time; 45%Think it is CDC; 43%of people believe that it is Trump's fault; 42%of people believe that it is the fault of the state government and the local government; 34%of them are Vice President Pence.
In fact, many countries are also worried that Trump will be in desperate dogs to jump walls, such as Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea. During this time, they should have deliberately chose extremely low -key, do not cause trouble, and do not speak, so as not to accommodate their spear.
As the target of the epidemic, and China, which is selected as a election of the election, the domestic contradiction is also selected as a general election.The author has extinguished the leadership of the South China Sea in the United States and the article published by the United States of South China Sea in the United Morning Post. The South China Sea should directly attack the Taichung to propose the China War of the South China Sea. The core is to prepare for the war of Taiwan's recovery.If a small and medium -sized Sino -US war is inevitable, the United States is the first to move against China, and China is forced to fight against the United States. China should not just fight for national dignity.If the United States actively provoked the war in the South Island Reef, China should take the opportunity to directly attack Taiwan. This is an excellent historical time for China's military forces to regain Taiwan.Since the Sino -US war has begun, why not resolve the great cause of the motherland in one way.After winning Taiwan, it is okay to bombard the South Island Reef.The island and reef are bombed, and it is just to continue reclaiming the island to build the island.Therefore, China's preparation for the provocations of the South China Sea's provocations can not only prepare the South China Sea War, but also to prepare forces to regain the war of Taiwan.Don't prepare in the South China Sea, you should also prepare in the Taiwan Strait.What's more clearly, the greater the determination of the United States may directly recover Taiwan in the United States, the greater the determination of Taiwan, the more fully preparing for the force, the more likely it is to break the idea of bombing the islands and reefs in the South China Sea.Because the result may present this ending: Zhou Mi carefully prepares forces to attack Taiwan, but it can solve the hidden dangers of the South Island Reef. This can essentially the effect of surrounding Wei to save Zhao.Therefore, China and the United States defense Trump's possible dog jumping walls to launch a war against China and stifle the idea of moving martial arts in the South China Sea. The core is to prepare for the war of Taiwan's recovery.
It can be seen that many recent military exercises in China should be the idea of stopping the idea of the American war in the war of the Taiwan Straits.Officials from the Ministry of Defense told British Reuters and Bloomberg in the United States that on August 26, China launched four medium -range ballistic missiles and hit a certain area located between the South China Sea between the Hainan Island and the Xisha Islands.Earlier, the Hong Kong South China Morning Post quoted news that it was close to the PLA that the PLA launched Dongfeng-26B ballistic missiles from the direction of Qinghai on the 26th, and a Tung Wind-21D ballistic missile launched from the direction of Zhejiang, cracking down on the scheduled target of the South China Sea.The US media believes that Dongfeng-21D and Dongfeng-26 both have anti-aircraft carrier capabilities. Among them, Dongfeng-26B can crack down on U.S. ship targets at 4,000 kilometers.The launch occurred in the second day after the U-2 reconnaissance aircraft broke into the Northern Theater of the People's Liberation Army in the U.S. U-2 reconnaissance aircraft. The first day after the foreign media reported that China launched the Dongfeng-26 ballistic missile to the sea.China has recently held a large -scale actual combat exercise in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and has trained the Taiwan Strait to block the ends of the ends of the Taiwan Strait.
Big power, no luck, prepare for the battle to stop the war, can firmly control the initiative in your own hands, rather than pinching it to the other party.
However, China and the United States must also prevent misjudgments.This is also the core purpose of my writing this article today.
The United States and China have recently had military actions in the South China Sea. The two major American aircraft carriers have entered the South China Sea exercises a few days ago.The military actions of the United States and China are actually stimulating the other party to make greater military deployment and military preparation.The US Minister of Defense Esper published an article preparation for China for the Pentae Building on the Wall Street Journal, discussed the threat of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, and proposed three major measures.Acts, support the sovereignty of all countries, and defend the international system of freedom and openness.Esper also said that these actions in China have prompted the US Department of Defense to make comprehensive response and accelerate the implementation of national defense strategy reports.Esper's following three major measures: First of all, to compete with China, the United States needs to have armed forces that can compete, deterrent and winning in all areas of sea, land, air, space, and network space; secondly, expand and strengthen alliesAnd partner network; third, the United States needs to continue to strengthen the ability of partners.
Esper is also a normal reflection of Chinese military exercises. After all, it is a world superpower and cannot be scared by China.In an article, a speech is also a fake tiger for your country, and you want to scare China not to advance.This is also a very cheap military shout.
It should be clear that if you bright muscles, I also brighten the muscles. It does cause the bright muscles of both China and the United States to continue to upgrade frequently.
From Trump's second term agenda, it can also show that Trump should not consider and plan war for the time being (especially the war against China).The third agenda of the top ten agenda is to end our dependence on China, which mentioned that 1 million manufacturing jobs brought back from China; providing tax credits for companies that bring back to work from China;Pharmaceuticals and robots that return to the United States implement 100%cost deductions for key industries; companies outsourcing in China will not get federal contracts; let China be responsible for viruses spreading around the world.Those who involved China are completely economic issues. The promotion of these agenda -related agenda and the planning of the planning of China are completely conflict.Of course, it cannot be deceived by such an agenda, but sometimes major information is smelled from this kind of information.
In the last agenda, the U.S. -priority foreign policy also mentioned that it is necessary to stop the endless war and let our army go home.This also reflected that Trump did not admire the war, and he was tired of endless war.
With the gradual improvement of Trump's election, the domestic accountability of the domestic response to the Trump epidemic gradually faded over time, and Trump now does not need to launch the war against China before the election.Before the US election, the United States' lead to China ’s martial arts was basically demolished.
Trump's polls stopping the rise and fall can make the Sino -US choice without war. Hellip; hellip;
Author: Peng Shengyu
Strategic Researcher, Special Researcher of IFF International Financial Forum Research Institute
