I have to admit that the United States in the 20th century has played a great role in promoting the reconstruction of the world pattern. Many world -class international organizations have emerged under the promotion of the United States.The United States is a maker, leader and promoter of many international rules.In the 70 years after World War II, in the international game rules, the United States can be said to be long -sleeved and good dance.
After the outbreak of the Pacific War, U.S. President Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Churchy drafted the principles of jointly complied with all countries in order to strengthen the unified action of all anti -Fasis countries and obtained the Soviet approval.On January 1, 1942, 26 anti -fascist countries including the United States, Britain, China, and the Soviet Union signed the document, that is, the joint declaration of the United Nations, laying the foundation for the establishment of the United Nations.In 1945, 51 countries signed the United Nations Charter to formally become the founding member of the United Nations, and the United Nations officially announced its establishment.
For decades, the United Nations has changed its international storms and grew up on a tortuous road, which has made important contributions to the peace and prosperity of human beings.The United Nations has made remarkable achievements in achieving global non -colonization, maintaining world peace and security, and promoting social and economic development.The United Nations has become the most universal and authoritative intergovernmental international organization composed of contemporary sovereign countries.
World Trade Organization (abbreviation: WTO), referred to as the WTO in Chinese, is an international organization responsible for supervising various trade agreements between member economies.The secretariat of the agreement.The World Trade Organization is one of the most important international economic organizations in the contemporary. The total trade volume of members has reached 98%of the world's global, and it is known as the Economic United Nations.The WTO is a permanent international organization independent of the United Nations.It officially began operation on January 1, 1995, responsible for managing the world economy and trade order, and headquartered on the banks of Lake, Genevon, Switzerland.Since December 11, 2001, China has officially joined the WTO, marking that my country's industry has entered a new stage.
The main pattern of today's world is indeed shaped by the United States, and various international organizations are basically produced by the United States.
However, today's United States, with its national strength decline, the country's chaos is overwhelming, international leadership has declined significantly, and international prestige and international reputation are gradually declining.
The international organizations and mechanisms that the United States dominated by one hand has now become more international organizations and mechanisms that balance the United States.The United States no longer feels that these international organizations and mechanisms that have been created by themselves have used their value to him.As a result, he started the crazy retreat.
In recent years, the United States has gone to the United States ’first banner, and has gone further and further on the road of unilateralism, and has repeatedly discarded its international commitment and international obligations.Seriously impact international law and international order.The number of international treaties withdrawn from the US government has exceeded any previous government in the United States.
First look at the shutdown of the WTO.The global trade war initiated by the United States directly led to the failure of the WTO.On December 10, 2019, the draft resolution of the Appeals Organization Appeals Organization's Appeals Organization was not approved, and the appellant will stop accepting new disputes on December 11.The World Trade Organization has fallen into the greatest crisis in its 25 -year history.The British Guardian commented.As the final ruling agency of a trade dispute, the appellant is known as the Pearl of the WTO crown.The stopping agency of the WTO was directly due to the insufficient number of judges.According to the WTO regulations, there are 7 judges in the appealing agency, with a term of 4 years per person.In response to any trade dispute cases, three judges must be tried by three judges.However, starting from December 11, 2019, there is only one judge left by the World Trade Organization Appeals and cannot accept any case.Since the first half of 2017, the World Trade Organization has been shrouded in the shadow of the appealing agency.According to the BBC, the United States believes that appealing agencies have abused power, and there are issues such as overwhelming rights, trial overdue, and over -time service of judges.
Look at the World Health Organization.On July 6th, the Trump administration submitted a notice of only three sentences to the preserver of the US Congress and the World Health Organization Law and the United Nations Secretary -General of the United Nations.The date of the group is July 6, 2021.A spokesman for the Secretary -General of the United Nations confirmed that Gutres received a notice from the United States.
On August 14, 2020, the United Nations Security Council voted for the extension of the U.S.'s extension of the US arms embargo.China and Russia have voted against votes, 11 members of the Security Council voted for abandoned votes, and the draft resolution was not approved.The U.S. hegemonism and domineering act completely failed in the voting vote of the United Nations Security Council.With the voting results of 13: 2, the world is happy and embarrassed by the United States.
The Trump administration has always claimed that the United States has suffered in the cooperation with various international organizations. More precisely, many international organizations now believe that the United States has considered it.In terms of interests, the United States has advocated various international organizations established by the main promotion, and has a phenomenon of self -binding cocoons.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Middot; Kissinger published a column article entitled by the new crown virus in the Wall Street Journal on April 3, which will always change the world order.Kissinger pointed out that after the new coronal virus, the world will no longer look like.The new crown virus launched an attack on humans with an unprecedented scale and violence.Its spread is index level.The new crown virus's attack on human health is temporary, but the political and economic turbulence it triggered may continue for generations.
The development of human society has never been linear and stable.According to the assumptions of historical institutionalism, the context of development is often determined by the few key nodes in the long river of history.In a special period, its effects will not disappear due to the end of the event. Instead, it will have the continuous effect of path dependence, and it will affect future evolution trajectories for a long time.
The stability of the global macro environment needs to rely on two cornerstones, namely international political cooperation and global economic exchanges.The former is the collaboration between sovereign countries, and is the jurisdiction of economic affairs from national levels to international levels.The latter reflects the economic connection of space dimension, further subdivision of the division of labor in the industrial chain, the expansion of the distance between the production market and the consumer market, and the extension of economic activities from regional to global levels (Local to Global).
After the first 20 years after the Cold War, with the promotion of the United States, globalization has developed rapidly. Governments of various countries have carried out market -oriented reforms and actively participated in various international economic organizations.With the reduction of trade barriers to the convergence of the regulatory rules of various countries, the cost of overseas production and investment in enterprises has further reduced, and economic exchanges between cross -border are encouraged.Although economic exchanges are the result of the stability of the macro environment, it will also play the role of lubricants in turn, further strengthen the expectations of governments to participate in international cooperation, and create the prosperity of the world economy.
When international political cooperation produces cracks, the restrictions on economic exchanges will also be corrected to a certain extent.
However, the huge reduction of economic exchanges that the epidemic affects this year has made the energy and strength of economic exchanges no longer so strong, and it has also spawned a greater voice to go global.
From the various incidents of the United States this year, it can be seen that the United States, which has been severely damaged by the new crown epidemic, has greatly increased its far -reaching damage to the world order.The United States has become the biggest destroyer of the current international order.When the former leaders no longer lead the world, the country has become politics, and the sovereign government has begun to gradually recover the power of the past to international mechanisms.
What is even more pessimistic is that it is blamed on the deterioration of Sino -US relations, and it is difficult for international cooperation to have a trend of good development in a long time.The funding support and leadership required for international cooperation is difficult to provide.Because of this, as thisThe two largest economies in the world, Synchronous cooperation between China and the United States can combine the world for collective operations.However, the United States' energy on the international stage seems to be used for non -constructive behaviors.
For the responsibility of the epidemic, the presidential election operation and the competition between the Chinese and American powers, the United States has greatly destroyed the world's most important great power relationship this year, MDash; MDASH; Sino -US relations.Some political forces in the United States, due to the political considerations of lifting the election and the need to maintain the single -pole hegemony, do not hesitate to comprehensively deny the history of Sino -US relations, make unreasonable suppression of China, and continuously provoking China's core interests.Attack the social system selected by the Chinese people and slander the ruling party connected to the Chinese people.These behaviors have lost the minimum etiquette of national exchanges with the country, breaking the most basic bottom line of international standards, and naked power politics.
The epidemic has indeed given birth to the United States' powerful crisis of crisis in the world. Regardless of whether Trump is re -elected, the next government of the United States may greatly increase the development of China. Strategic rebounds will retaliated back to show the United States.Sino -US strategic competition, ideological competition, development model competition, geopolitical competition, etc. will exacerbate the new global situation.
Under the current epidemic, the nature of the nature of Sino -US relations has further changed. From the relationship between cooperation -oriented to the relationship between competition and strategic competition, the possibility of new cold war between China and the United States is increasing.The reasons for the strategic competition between China and the United States include: First, the rise of China's rise is too fast, which has changed the pattern of leading the United States and the Western -dominated world after World War II. The United States is no longer the only country that formulates international rules. Of course, they are unwilling.The second is that they believe that China's system and development model challenged the American and Western models.Third, China has risen too fast in the global supply chain.
The U.S. hawks played a great role in the process of deterioration of the United States and China.Under the current situation, the claims of the Eagle School are getting less and less opposition, but more and more support and silence have obtained.In the case of increasing competition between China and the United States, the United States has three factions to China: 1. Trade eagle.It is believed that the Chinese market is not open, and the trade between China and the United States is unfair. They require the so -called fair competition to open the Chinese market. Many US companies and Trump themselves have this view.2. Safe hawk.The security eagle is mainly from the conservatives and extreme conservatives of the Republican Party. They regard China as the largest and long -term threat in the United States. To maintain an hegemonic position, China is the biggest threat, not Russia.3. Human rights hawk.It mainly comes from the leftist of the United States, mainly Democrats.The values and opinions on all domestic issues are tattooed on all domestic issues. They are only unified on the opinions of Chinese issues, that is, they are required to adopt a tough attitude.
This epidemic has allowed the U.S. hardships to use the epidemic to promote further decoupling with China's economy and technology. They think this is a good opportunity.
The epidemic crisis allows the United States to have a strong sense of crisis itself. China should not despise the United States.In the long run, of course, the United States is in a process of going downhill. In 1960, the total economic volume of the United States accounted for 40%of the world, nearly half.Since then, it has continued to go downhill. In 2019, it was 24.7%to 24.9%.But we also have to see its complexity.The 40 -year decline process in the United States is wavy, not linear.In the past 10 years, the United States has risen, but the process of rise has not been fast.In 2008, GDP accounted for about 7%of the total of the world, accounting for about 15%in 2018, and 16.6%by 2019, which continued to go up.The economic structure around the world is the rise of China and the United States, but the speed of the rise of the United States is not as fast as China's rise.
The American scientific and technological innovation, and the global ability to allocate wealth in all over the world, is the most advantageous compared to China.China should learn the most and should think most reversely.
Looking at the U.S. scientific and technological innovation, the American scientific and technological innovation is mainly due to the success of the United States to world talents.We must know that the American scientific and technological innovation and the United States have played a very important role in the world elites, and the contribution of immigrants in American scientific and technological innovation is very high.This is essentially a great benefit that personnel travel globalization brings to the United States.In fact, this also allows us to have such a thinking that to crack down on the United States' innovation ability. It should focus on the attraction of talents in the United States, including the attraction of Chinese elites.
The United States and large US companies have the ability to allocate global resources, and the United States is earning money from all over the world.The dollar itself is a ability to allocate global resources.Mainland China has entered more than 110 companies in the world's top 500. About 85%of the profit is generated within the Chinese national border, and only 15%of the profit is from the border line.This means that our top 500 in the world, most of which are still making Chinese money, and large American companies, such as Apple, at least 2/3 to 70%of the profit from the United States.It is mainly made by China.From this perspective, it can actually enlighten China, that is, China has enriched many American companies and supports the ability of the United States to seize wealth around the world.This ability to allocate global resources globally, the ability to seize wealth and profits around the world is essentially created by globalization to the United States.
Globalization has undoubtedly created unprecedented huge wealth.However, there are indeed some problems. Wealth only flows into the hands of some countries and very few people, and the phenomenon of increasing income differences, social differentiation, government taxation, employment loss, etc.change.The epidemic was a major event that changed the development of the world, which affected the entire social mentality.After the epidemic, people's living law will change, and the country's ideas will change.
The current round of the United States has suppressed the behavior of Chinese companies, which has greatly exacerbated the decoupling of the China -US technology decourse industry.The ebb of global economic exchanges makes the macro environment that was originally unstable worsen.Although the trend of against globalization has appeared a few years ago, if there is no impact of the epidemic, companies will continue to pursue the low cost and the vast consumer market brought by globalization, and it is difficult to determine that it will cost high cost reconstruction value chains.The epidemic has greatly accelerated the process of adverse globalization and brought about actual economic decoupling, which will make the behavior of some politicians more worry.
International cooperation standing on the basis of globalization has been promoted by the United States. If the negative negative energy of the United States continues to deteriorate, international cooperation will also decline due to the United States.
Author: Peng Shengyu
Special researcher at the strategic researcher of China Petroleum Central Enterprise and IFF International Financial Forum Research Institute
