A series of aggressive actions launched by the Trump administration to all sectors of China (political parties, governments, enterprises and individuals) are dazzling and subverting the American concept that people have established. The only thing that makes people feel is only people who can think ofWell, without the Trump administration cannot do it.Trump's policy of China is just that this power is all the US presidents who are for power. At a special moment (American election), do you use a special means?If so, people are too naive.
The rapid changes in the US policy in the United States have its inevitability.This inevitability has long been hidden in the process of Hyper-Globalization, which was decades before Trump.Doctrine is expressed in the form of Trump.If it wasn't for Trump's governance, it was only different from the different ways of individuals. The forms were different.
This wave of super globalization has begun from the British Sachel Revolution and the Reagan Revolution of the United Kingdom in the 1980s, and the global financial crisis was terminated by 2008.Compared with previous globalization, this wave of super globalization has shown several significant features.Western countries with Britain and the United States as the core relax economic control, especially financial control, financial capital, technology, talent, and manufacturing are freely flowing globally.
The effective configuration of production factors globally has greatly improved labor productivity.The huge amount of wealth is created. Whether it is a developed or developing countries, whether it is the capital class or the labor class, anyone who has been included in this globalization process has obtained a lot of benefits.The world seems to be prosperous and prosperous.
At the same time as the people who are super global, people who are super global, in Western society, do not want to see and have no expected changes.At the personal level, the difference between income and wealth has increased sharply and widening. Wealth is concentrated in the hands of very few people, and the income and wealth of most people have decreased sharply; the middle class has narrowed rapidly, and the bottom (poor) expands. Western society, especially American society, especially American societyThe government that has been proud of the middle class to the rich society from the past; the government, which has weakened due to social differentiation, has lost comprehensive economic sovereignty. Although the country's nominal wealth has been expanded, the state because of capital, technology, and manufacturing industriesLoss of taxes and employment.The development of automation and artificial intelligence is worsened to this process, because these technologies have led to a rapid decrease in employment opportunities.
Therefore, Western society quickly changed from super globalization to super nationalism.Internally, the West first manifested as the rise of rightist populism, and the external manifestation of the rise of rightist populism is based on nationalist foreign policy.Trade protectionism, economic nationalism, anti -immigrant, anti -globalization, anti -international cooperation, unilateralism, etc. are all general features of rightist populism.Right -do populism first rose in Europe. Now not only extends to the entire capitalist world, but also moves to the United States as the capitalist base.
As a typical example of free capitalism, the United States has successfully avoided the European -style socialist movement of the 19th and 20th centuries, and avoided the European -style welfare national system.The welfare system of European countries has limited the populism of rightists, but American free capitalism is unable to resist the populist.As the reform policy of the Obama administration shows that the objective reality of the United States requires this country to develop into a European -style democratic socialist or social democraticism, but the rise of conservative (right) populism inside makes this effort impossible;On the contrary, rightist populism has worked hard to transfer internal contradictions abroad, leading to the prevalence of super nationalism.
World View without the world
History has never lacked lessons.Over the years, people have never stopped discussing the trap or 1914 scene.Many people believed in 2014 that the relationship between China and the United States at that time was like the relationship between European countries before the First World War in 1914, but not many people believed at the time. They always thought that the world and the world before 1914 had different properties.But not many people think so now, but the scene in 1914 has come later.
During the decades from 1875 to 1914, the world economy has gone through unprecedented globalization.Economic liberalism and political liberalism are intertwined to promote globalization together.Because the globalization at that time was centered on European countries, globalization led to highly dependencies in the economy of European countries.Although nationalism is rising, especially in Eastern European countries that are far behind Western Europe, no one believes that conflicts will occur between European countries. It is always considered that conflicts are controllable.
The creed of economic liberalism is an invisible hand, that is, everyone's selfish behavior can eventually increase the overall welfare of society through the market.People also believe that this letter can happen in the field of international politics. I believe that the selfish behavior of various countries (nationalism is a concentrated manifestation), and will guide the improvement of international collective benefits, that is, peace.Therefore, all countries believe that their behavior is justified and moral.The results of it?As a historian Christopher Clark said in the book of sleepwander, everyone finally had a sleepwalking to the war.
Today's world is actually no different from the scene in 1914.To put it simply, the super globalization of the material world not only does not guide the globalization of people's psychological world; on the contrary, more and more people's psychological world is more and more localized and narrow, and psychological localization and narrowing areThe psychological foundation of super nationalism.In other words, super globalization requires people's worldview to have more and more world composition, but in fact people's world views are getting more and more worldwide today.
Super nationalism is the result of people (mainly in charge of power and wealth control).Super globalization has created endless opportunities for some individuals, some companies and some countries.But whether it is individual, enterprise, or country, they are dreamwimers. In the environment where new liberalism prevails, they lack rational thinking about the real world.New Liberal Doddles tell people that the world should be like this; in this world, capital should be completely free, because the freedom of capital brings huge benefits to society.The belief of neo -liberalism (often the winner of the interests) believes that the world is like this, and it will always be the case.
Actually not.Although the wealth class is getting richer, more individuals and social classes have become victims of super globalization.In a rich society, the wealth class has neither social responsibility nor to promote political reform to achieve even low social fairness and justice.Although there are a few wealthy American people urging the government to tax them more, for the overall beneficial strata, this self -revolution has little possibility.In fact, vested interests are not capable of self -revolution, and it is also one of the most important reasons that often occur in history.
On the one hand, IT technology and social media are promoting super globalization, not only the globalization of material, but also the globalization of ideas, but on the other hand, it also promotes the formation of political formation at the fastest speed.Today, no matter which society, the problem of information silkworms is generally existed and deepened.People have a sense of security in the real world, so they turn to the virtual world.
IT companies that lack social responsibility have not stopped this trend of decomposition; on the contrary, they have used this opportunity to seek huge commercial interests.As a result, people's consciousness is fragmented and consciously forms various groups. Because of the sense of identity of this virtual world, can they show the sense of unity and strength of the disadvantaged group.The differentiation of income wealth has already highly differentiated society, and conscious differentiation exacerbates the fragmentation of society.The ethnic group, ethnicity, race, religion, class, and class are becoming more and more differentiated, and their behavior is increasingly radical and even violent.
As a result, the disintegration of society and the frequency of conflict.Domestic identity politics broke out in Europe many years ago, with immigration issues as the core.Now transferred to the United States, centered on ethnic politics.Diplomacy is an extension of the internal affairs. The US foreign policy is just an internal populist emotion and has evolved into the product of external nationalist emotions.Under the guidance of nationalism, the country is super selfish and is guided by its own narrow interests to make superficial rationality, but it is actually irrational decision.
Both identifying politics and nationalist emotions have the characteristics of moralization and demonization of others.Obviously, once self -morality, everything you do is correct and just.Regardless of which aspect, the US policy for the United States has deeply fallen into a trap of recognition of politics.
Need to reorganize internal structures
In fact, for the United States, externalization of internal contradictions cannot effectively solve internal problems.Conflict with China, even war, cannot solve the internal problems of the United States.The problem of the United States is the problem of internal economic and political structure.The outbreak of contradiction only indicates that the United States urgently needs to adjust and reorganize the internal structure.European -style democratic socialism is a general trend.Although the voice of the United States' democratic socialism has become stronger in recent years, it takes a long time to be transformed into practice.After a long and powerful socialist movement in Europe, the United States must also find its own way to achieve transformation.
As a superpower, the influence of the United States recognizing politics far exceeds the United States.Many other countries and regions have their own rational abacus. Most of them have conflicts between China and the United States, and deepen the opportunity to obtain self -definition interests and self -recognition values.Australia, Britain and other Western countries have long chosen to stand with the United States, and some Western countries are ready to stand with the United States.Some countries in India and Southeast Asia with sovereignty over the South China Sea territorial sovereignty have also tried to take this opportunity to obtain some benefits.Not only is the United States promoted behind the United States, but the power of Taiwan independence also tries to make a difference in independence.
Not only are the government, the same is true of enterprises.American companies always advertise how to be independent of the government, but under the circumstances of China and the United States, these companies are becoming more and more nationalist.Some companies take this opportunity to actively attack and demonize Chinese companies, even if they are private enterprises; some companies actively cooperate with the US government's Chinese policy, and others have stated that they can meet the needs of the government at any time.Enterprises in more countries have contributed to the government's behavior of crowding Chinese enterprises out of their country because they think that this is a good opportunity for their own development, and they can fill the space that Chinese companies give.
More importantly, all these characters think that their decisions and behaviors are rational and moral.Many characters have been deeply caught in the role of sleepwalking.As the experience before World War I showed that if these characters could not wake up, they would inevitably sleep to the final conflict.
The United States' policy on China must cause China's response.It is understandable that in diplomacy, officials and society between China and the United States have been complaining and scolding each other.Over the years, Chinese populism and nationalism have also risen.In terms of income and wealth differences, the impact of super globalization on China is not lower than any other country.The nationalist emotions based on a century -old shame have not disappeared, and contemporary nationalism has ushered in due to the rise of the country. The people consciously pride because of the prosperity of the country.
Historically, whether it is traditional or contemporary, Chinese nationalism has strong energy.At least in terms of words, some people advocate a comprehensive attack on the US policy on the United States, and people have been fighting back.Once this high nationalist emotion is reflected in China's US policy, China will also fall into a paradox.In fact, China has not danced with the United States so far, and it is clearly stated that they will not dance with the United States, but even so, China's patience is limited.
Once the United States harms China's fundamental national interests, especially the core interests, including Taiwan, China will inevitably fight back. Similarly, once the interests of the people are damaged, people will inevitably counterattack from the bottom up without considering consideringTo this kind of counterattack winning problem.
In other words, once China, the United States and its allies sleepwalk together, the possibility of war will increase sharply.
However, no matter from which perspective, how to maintain its rational response method to China, or to China, which is affected by other countries affected by the United States, or other countries affected by the United States, and the importance of its reason, it will not be excessive.EssenceThe United States is targeted at China, and those countries that follow the United States are also targeted at China. Even though other countries are not targeted at China, they have many uncertainty, and even fear of China's rise. They can also be in danger of taking people.
Historically, the entire world order is disintegrated.The efforts of the death will not be interrupted, but the effect is doubtful.Reconstruction after disintegration is more likely.The disintegration of international order is the international crisis, but it is not necessarily the destruction of the world, or it may be the birth of the new world.Just as the revolution or resistance within a country has never been interrupted, and the international conflict and even war are the same.History often solves the methods and contradictions that the existing system can not solve by destroying the existing system (regardless of domestic or international).
But it is clear that this historical theory is the tragedy of human beings in itself.If believe that peace is beautiful, there will be no reason not to stop those behaviors of tragic sleepwalking.
(The author is the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), Dean of the Global and Contemporary China High Research Institute)
(Xiaoqi: This column is now changed to two weeks once)
