Source: Observer.com
Author: Jin Junda
After Steve Middot; after Bannon was accused of fraud and arrested, the White House clarified the relationship for the first time. President Trump claimed that he had not dealt with him for a long time.Bannon was accused of crowdfunding the wall to support Trump through the crowdfunding fee of We Build the Wall, but the quality and environmental impact of the wall were criticized. Trump also complained that this event added to his campaigntrouble.At the same time, some people in this storm claimed that some of our funds that we came to repair the wall were corrupted by the organizers and became the cause of fraud.
It can be seen that Trump and Bannon have relatively obvious differences in interests.This brings a new problem. In the 2020 election and the next four years, how should we look at the relationship between alternative right -wing sports designers Bannon and populist politicians?
Trump's governance shows a very distinctive personal style and also reflects the status quo of the American party fighting.First of all, he has a great advantage in the election votes in the 2016 election, but the number of voters is less than Hillary Middot; Clinton.Secondly, he received the strong support of the basic market in governance. In 2016, the loyalty of supporters remained at a very high level, and the voting rate of these people was higher than that of the Democratic Party.So the Republican Party formed a radical political alliance: Trump was anxious to fulfill the extreme remarks during the election when he came to power to maintain the high support rate of right -wing voters; Republican politicians were also willing to use the political dividend brought by Trump supporters to oppose(Such as Romney) will be marginalized.
However, in the 2020 election, Trump must try to strive for more support from the middle school, and the strategy of uniting minority voters may no longer be applicable.Because the mid -2018 election has indicated that the voting rate of voters in the Democratic Party has risen significantly. At that time, the polls showed that many people voted because they wanted to fight Trump.In addition, Trump ’s masterpiece advantage is mainly for the majority of swing voters. No matter how high its exposure is and how strong the ability to manipulate the issue, it is difficult for him to change the voting flow of the left and right pole voters.
Trump's goal is undoubtedly to win elections, so the key to his recent remarks and policies is to stabilize to shape his good image in economic and security in recent years.
In terms of economy, Trump continues to urge resumptions on the one hand, on the other hand, he is hoping to improve the economy in the third quarter.The number of new crowns in the United States still increased day by day, but the number of viruses was diluted by the large number of infected people, and the medical system was not completely penetrated. Therefore, some voices believed that the toxicity of the new crown virus in the United States was weakened., But it will not cause large -scale death.At the same time, although the annualized decline in GDP in the second quarter of the United States was amazing, it was still better than expected. Of course, Trump hopes to pull the GDP in the third quarter through resumption of work.
In terms of security, Trump ’s old -fashioned bomb recently provoked mainly for China and Iran.For example, the Sino -US trade negotiations were canceled, and the trade war continued to make articles. The Minister of Health Azar visited the Taiwan region to block several Chinese companies in a row, which aims to shape its own image to defend the United States.At the same time, the United States has strengthened the blockade of Iran not only to seize oil wheels, but also tried to promote sanctions against Iran in the United Nations.From the perspective of the Suleimani incident at the beginning of the year, this action is unlikely to bring revenge, but the addition of Trump's campaign is also limited.
As long as Trump comes out of political and security, middle school voters have reasons for supporting Trump.In addition, with the anti -racial discrimination movement caused by the Freud case, it gradually returned to the old road of identity politics, and some middle class may also stand on Trump.In the debate, Trump will also benefit from the level of Bush in 2016, or public relations, etc. in the debate, or public relations.
In this case, Trump obviously does not want to see the media holding the obvious anti -intellectual behavior similar to the new crown of disinfection water.These run counter to Trump's campaign interests.
However, the purpose of Bannon is different from Trump. He moves for alternative right -wing movements: Although the individual errors in the case of the wall of the wall are relatively low, the European and American nationalism he represented is still in China for a long time.opponent.
In 2010, Bannon, a conservative activist David Middot; Boxi introduced that he met Trump and soon became the main staff of Trump.After Trump ’s willingness to election, Bannon laid out in advance to create a spokesperson for real estate tycoon Trump, and determined the strategy of striving for rust workers.
In return, Trump appointed Bannon as the chief strategic expert and senior adviser, which once entered the latter into a foreign decision -making circle.The relationship between the two is easy to beautify thousands of miles and the Bole -like encounters by outsiders. Even Bannon's leave of the White House was regarded as the cause of humiliation and continued to support Trump from the dark.
However, according to Wolf Fire and Fury, and other US media reports, Bannon's main reason to anger Trump, including the popularity of Trump, to win elections, and Bannon deliberately leaked the White House in the White HouseMethod of the negative news of political opponents.Moreover, many members of Bannon and Trump have contradictions, indicating that Bannon's desire to control Trump is quite strong.
Judging from the performance of Bannon in the European populist wave, he obviously could not bow for his Tyrphon regime and only make up for the sky. It was just that Trump was particularly easy to use when inciting populist movements.Bannon spontaneously aid for Trump, praised Trump in conservative media, and received a positive response from Trump, but the alternative work of the two was independent and its purpose.
Bannon organizations come to repair other activities such as the wall, all of which have mobilized Trump iron powder that we did not need to mobilize. These behaviors have the meaning of forcibly binding Trump and right -wing.Through this kind of folk right -wing activity, Bannon added a conservative color to Trump's political image.Of course, from the perspective of this specific incident, Bannon is not purely for political ideals, and personal fame and fortune are also some of his considerations.
Of course, Trump's of course not only his class farmers. Compared with the slightly poor performance of this class farmer, Pompeo, Graham and others who have been in American politics for many years are more proficient in this set.The recent policy of the United States has basically followed the logic: right -wing officials, parliamentarians, and even critics have created momentum on a certain issue, advocating the policy of cheap the United States, and Trump followed up his speech; if the other party returned, he felt Tan who had lost his face Trump.Pu will upgrade the situation.The so -called new crown virus was so rising. Trump was not rushing to shirk responsibility in February. By March, he often used the stigma name in public places, and he deliberately paused at the press conference to attract attention.The United States' suppression of Chinese technology companies is also an example. The Chinese government hopes to avoid upgrading. Pompeo will scream to sanction Tencent, Alibaba and other companies, hold Trump’s nose, and let them pay attention to it again.Decodied by China and the United States.
Trump has the shortcomings of vanity, irritability, repeated impermanence, and low professional literacy. He has strong motivation, strong media intuition, good at scaring the opponents of negotiation, hate others to decide this red line, and the clear goal of election re -election.This information has been disclosed in the public in the past few years. It is not difficult for the old American politicians to manipulate and use Trump.
Of course, the differences between Bannon and Trump do not mean that they parted ways or constraint with each other in the campaign.On the contrary, Bannon's career may bring new reinforcements to Trump.Bannon once claimed that the so -called socialist who supported Sanders but did not consider where money came from was potential economic nationalist elements.The current Democratic Party is actually the product of progressive and global capitalism. The Democratic Party's progressive movement will inevitably have anti -globalized colors, and it is easy to become a hotbed of American nationalism.
In this way, a strange phenomenon appeared: although Trump discriminated against women, anti -wisdom, and speciesEthnicism is obviously not loved by young people, but some Bernie Middot; Sanders's young supporters in 2016 refused to vote for the party's votes to oppose Trump; in addition to thinking that Hillary was with Trump with TrumpIn addition to the bad people (in fact, many of the two stains are not consistent, most people obviously have preferences), and some people must secretly agree with Trump's radical remarks.
Bannon's work focuses on this part of this part. He evoked the inner superiority of leftist intellectuals by shaping the image of evil China, thereby reshaping American nationalism.If the activists such as Bannon can manipulate the right to speak, the supporters of Sanders, Yang Anze, and Cotaz are divided by the supporters of the creation of Bayendon and Pelosi, and the Trump election is undoubtedly a great achievement.Essence
The author just pointed out the potential contradiction between the Class Farmers Movement and the Trump election: the best strategy of Trump's winning election is to restart the economy when controlling the mortality of the new crown virus.Domestic ideological struggle.In the 2020 presidential election, swing states and middle voters will still play a relatively large role, and Bannon's anti -intellectual behavior art, right -wing rally, and fraud crimes are difficult to say in the middle of the middle voters.As for Bannon's advocacy of the pot theory and Sino -US confrontation, because Pompeo's group has always done the same thing in the system, it is difficult to say that it has a decisive role.After Trump's arrest in Bannon's arrest, the unauthorized action of Bannon is likely to damage the Trump's election benefits.
In addition, because Bannon's magic shadow will still exist after Trump steps down, we need to pay attention to such a risk: if Bayeng won in the 2020 election, he can not see his systematic policy proposition.Trump's forces will try to recommend consultants who represent their own interests.For Bannong's group, it is not difficult to insert a consultant to advocate protectiveism and advocate the protectionist consultant and the ideological differences between China and the United States.The author has seen more than one so -called American progressist who told Trump as a pioneer that advocates fair trade, and believes that Trump is helping Chinese workers (even domestic so -called Lian Emperor's anti -repair left with similar views), These people will cheer in the first time to restart Trump's protectionist policy.
Everyone knows the consensus of the increasingly anti -China emotions in the United States, but behind the anti -China emotions is to suppress and plunder China by the United States' position in finance, military, diplomacy, and rules. This is an important part of the so -called alternative right -wing movement.This time Bannon was released soon. Even though he played a small role in the Trump election, his ideological set of ideology deserved people who loved peace and hope that China and the United States and mutual benefit were vigilant.
