Source: Hong Kong 01

When the State Council of China held a executive meeting a few days ago, it was stated that China would maintain a reasonable liquidity but not in large water irrigation.The official media China Securities Journal quoted analysts that the probability of a comprehensive reduction in this year will decline, and the PICC will maintain the capital flow in a reasonable level through the open market operation of past habits.After the new crown epidemic, China's economy was successful, but under the pressure of the international environment, the consumption of domestic demand was still weak, which was very optimistic.The central government's monetary policy is tightening, which means that it is still very cautious about how to deal with the economy, and does not deliberately pursue refresh economic data.China's cautious monetary policy means that Hong Kong is difficult to expect that there will be the same North Water south of the North Water in the past financial crisis. In the economic recovery period of the post -new crown epidemic, Hong Kong has to strive to find new economic growth points in order to continue to develop.

The new crown epidemic affects major economies in the world. The United States has launched unlimited loose monetary policy in response to the economic crisis to support the economy.In the face of difficult times, China also had to put water to support the economy, but its quantity seemed quite conservative.As early as March and April, China had pointed out that it would not be irrigated, and the policy was not completely relaxed at the same time.In the past few months, China's economic data has slightly responded to normal, and the policy direction has become more cautious.In fact, the rapid appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in May reflects the gap between China -US monetary policy.If the pedestrian no longer fully reduced this year, but continues to operate in the open market in the past, it can be expected that China's capital environment will not have water immersion this year.

In the price index announced last month, the core CPI (residential consumer price index) only increased by 0.5%, which was 0.4 percentage points from June, reflecting that consumers are still very weak, and the economic prospects are very optimistic.There are two interpretations of this. One is that the economy is still weak. If in the mainstream logic of the United States, it will naturally think that it should continue to increase the water release to further boost confidence.However, another face -to -face explanation is that the funds of loose policies are difficult to completely inflow into the real economy. It often makes an overheating in the capital market, but the real economy is not ideal.U.S. stock markets have risen to ignore economic data under monetary policy, which reflects this phenomenon.The economy is slightly stable and China is anxious to put the eagle for currency strategies. It shows that China is more worried about the structural impact of the economy than stimulating economic data to pursue book data.

China clearly absorbs the experience of emptying economic emptiness after the large water irrigation in 2008. The governor is always concerned about how the real economy is.This is important for providing a stable and sustainable economic development for the country, but it is obviously not good news for the value of the stock market and assets.The past stock markets, property markets, and consumer markets in Hong Kong also benefited from the hot money of the mainland to respond to the economic crisis, and it has also become one of the core motivations for the economic development of Hong Kong in the past.The steady growth of the mainland and the environment of the return of China stocks return to Hong Kong will have a certain role in Hong Kong.However, the cautious monetary policy on the mainland means that after the epidemic, it is difficult for Hong Kong to expect that a large number of Beishui has come down to support the economy in the past, and it is difficult to rebound after facing the economic recession in the past.In the long run, Hong Kong still has to rely on yourself to find new economic opportunities and growth points, otherwise it is likely to face Japan's loss for ten years.