Zhang Yun: ＂New Cold War＂ or ＂post -Cold War＂

Horizontal World

As Sino -US relations continue to be tense, the discussion of the New Cold War has become more and more market.However, most of the current discussion focuses on the competition and confrontation between China and the United States in recent years, and has not analyzed the historical process and background of global political evolution from a longer period of time.

The author believes that from the perspective of historical comparison and the historical process of post -war international relations, the global political consciousness awakening has gone through three big waves; and we are now in the third wave of global political consciousness awakening.

In 2009, the former US National Security Consultant Bu -Rezuski used the international power of the financial crisis in the era of financial crisis. When he shifted from the West to the East, he used the concept of global political awakening.

The author has been further developed by this. From the perspective of the expansion and deepening of the expansion and participation of global political participants in the war, this article proposes a new idea of three waves of global political consciousness awakening.Not a new cold war.Although there is a danger that may slip to the new Cold War, this danger can be stopped by the torrent of the third wave of the third wave of global political awareness.

The first wave and the second wave

After the end of World War II in the mid -1940s, the colonial empires were disintegrated during the colonial movement. Many countries in the European colonies were independent, and a large number of emerging nation countries were born.These countries are expected to achieve economic autonomy and modernization as soon as possible after obtaining national independence and national sovereignty.This global wave of independence between colonization and the independence of the African -African and Latinity nations is the first wave of global political awakening.

However, shortly after the end of World War II, the iron curtain of the Cold War fell worldwide, which had a huge impact on this torrent.Emerging nation countries have also adopted various methods to try to avoid impact. From the Bandung conference in the 1950s to the unreasonable campaign, there are regional nuclear -free neutral construction, including Yajia'an, etc.It can be regarded as this wave of global political awakening, and the mutual collision process between the two -level confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union.

However, the global cold war pattern, which is highly split and intensive confrontation with military, politics, economy, and ideology, has largely deprived of the consciousness, motivation, and capabilities of these newly independent and fragile emerging nation countries to participate in global politics.Many of these nations have to choose the side stations in the Cold War and enter the respective camps of the United States and the Soviet Union.A few countries such as China and India have adopted strategic isolation to obtain strategic autonomy, thereby maintaining independence and sovereignty; and some countries are caught in war because of the intervention of superpowers, such as Vietnam.

In the 1990s, the global political pattern of non -black or white confrontation collapsed after the Cold War ended. In the Cold War era, the United States and the Soviet Union had a large number of nuclear weapons to obtain the cold peace premise of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).The announcement is over.

The important result of this big change is the second wave of global political awakening.This wave has the following three important characteristics. First, China, China, India and other large countries that have been isolated in the Cold War of the Cold War, re -participated in international political and economic affairs, and have developed greatly in participating in the existing international order. Second, Japan, Japan, and JapanAfter the war, Germany and other economic powers of the so -called semi -main power country have also begun to consider how to actively participate in global politics.Expansion of the European Union.

At the same time, after the Cold War, the United States, as the only superpowers, started with the cognition of the Cold War winner, coupled with the superb military economic strength, another tension of global politics seemed to be towards the United States.) The direction of the direction.Therefore, the second wave of global political awareness awakening is evolving in the collision between global diversification and the theory of stability of the United States hegemony.

The third wave of the evolution

Taking the global economic crisis as an opportunity in 2008, global forces have spread and rapidly changing the spread between the country and the country and the non -national behavior, which has caused the great awakening of global political participation and the degree of participation.We can call this the third wave of global political awareness.This wave is still evolving.

This wave has the following three characteristics.First, represented by China, India, Brazil, etc., in the second wave of actively participating in the high -speed growth of emerging economies that are actively participating in globalization, it is required to reflect their interests more.Investment banks and other efforts;

Second, the vast country including the United States allies, in the face of the various vulnerability brought about by globalization of high -speed after -Cold War, hopes to further strengthen the consciousness of multilateralism, regionalism and globalism.The initiative and motivation of the global political pattern reorganization is also unprecedentedly stimulated.For example, in the absence of the United States, Japan has also continued to promote the cross -Pacific partnership agreement (TPP); although the EU has financial difficulties in various countries, the regional fiscal rescue plan for coronary virus is eventually dealt with;

Third, the international cooperation of multinational companies such as multinational corporations and foundations, which brings a great awakening of global political awareness beyond the original sovereign national framework.The second largest funder of the Health Organization, actively cooperating with China, was highly intense in Sino -US relations.

The third wave of global political awareness awakening is the large torrent of the global countries and non -governmental actors, which is widely activated, and the foundation of the United States' long -term hegemony and stability of the United States. The United States will change the United States to changeParticipate in the collision between the anxiety and anger of anxiety and anger in the transition period of the global political method.The current high tension of Sino -US relations, on the surface, seems to be the confrontation between the two China and the United States in terms of political, economic military and even ideological.If this logic is deduced, the conclusion of the new Cold War is not surprising.

However, we can see from the above analysis that the current background of the Sino -US confrontation is actually the third wave of global power of the global power of the Cold War, and the global political awakening.The era of our lives is the Cold War instead of the New Cold War.

The importance of third -party cognition

According to the three characteristics of the three waves of awakening of global political consciousness above, the kinetic energy that prevents the new Cold War from the New Cold War is fundamentally provided.

Judging from the historical trend of the global emerging power group represented by the BRICS countries, if the intention of the United States is to curb the rise of every emerging country, the new cold war will occur repeatedly.The will and ability of the great power?The rise of the third wave of great powers is not the rise of China alone, but the collective rise of a group of countries.

Although China's development speed in the past 30 years is very conspicuous, as the economic structure needs to be upgraded, the demands of people's living standards and social security needs have increased, China will no longer take the past GDP above the goal.Therefore, China's future development will inevitably pay more attention to quality, rather than a unique quantity.This means that the rise of emerging powers such as India, Brazil, and Indonesia will likely get more international attention than before.If the idea of hegemony is based on the idea of hegemony, the United States must curb China and every major country that will rise afterwards.How much sustainability and international support is there such logic?

The main challenges faced by the majority of national groups, including the United States allies, are how to effectively respond to the vulnerability brought about by globalization while continuing to enjoy the global dividend.cold war.They have a great consensus in the main corresponding way, that is, multilateralism.

After the United States announced the suspension of funds to the World Health Organization (WHO) in April this year, Prime Minister Abe in Japan clearly stated at a press conference that Japan did not consider cutting the burden on WHO and must support WHO because infectious diseases affect the world. WHO is used as WHO.For the international community, it is necessary to unite oneCause.

According to media reports, the Foreign Minister of the Seventh Kingdom Group also issued a joint statement because of whether to add a new coronal virus to the word and sentence at the meeting.These all show that the United States' allies continue to maintain the relationship with the United States, and do not want to see the division of the international community and the death of multilateralism.Therefore, their strategic judgments will be more and more analyzing their own long -term interests and specific problems, rather than blindly pursuing the group consistency.

For American allies, the so -called free international order actually includes three aspects: market economy, democracy and multilateralism.Now the United States thinks that the freedom economy makes itself suffer, democraticism weakens itself, and the useless idea of multilateralism has largely worried them.

If China and the United States have a new cold war, it is actually a direct blow to multilateralism.Therefore, for them, it is important not to be controlled by the Sino -US relations. It is not allowed to be damaged by the neutrality of China and the United States.The content is full of effort.When these countries are currently nervous, the main strategic focus is how to strengthen the relationship with third parties outside China and the United States.

International community forces such as multinational enterprises and global non -governmental organizations participating in global political awareness awakening means that they will inhibit the impulse of the country's participation in the New Cold War.At present, the tensions such as competition between Chinese and American companies and high -tech decoupling. From the perspective of these transnational social forces, they involve a large number of political factors. They should try to avoid and have the motivation to curb their own government to participate in the new Cold War.

In late July, British Prime Minister Johnson and US Secretary of State Pompeo visited by the United Kingdom held a press conference. Although it remained consistent with the Huawei issue, it was also said that not all issues were anti -China.After all, Sino -British economic and trade relations have increased four times in the past 10 years.Can the UK leave the European Union, can it bear it again?

For example, Chinese companies have 10 million users in Japan. If they are prohibited by Chinese companies, how can they persuade users?Japanese companies such as Shiseido used Alibaba's cloud services and were asked about the United States' prohibition measures, which said that the company involved political factors inconvenient answers.In early April, Japan did not have unmanned planes produced in China, and took full resistance measures like the United States.

Therefore, whether the Cold War will fall to the New Cold War, not only depends on the strategic interaction between China and the United States, but the awareness of the majority of third parties in the international community that has awakened global politics is equally important. They do not agree, do not participate, do not support, supportThe new Cold War is difficult to establish.

The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University of Japan

For American allies, the so -called free international order actually includes three aspects: market economy, democracy and multilateralism. Now the United States believes that the free economy makes itself suffer, democraticism will weaken itself. Multilateralism is useless.In terms of extent, they are worried.