It can be said that the two most powerful two guns that are different from other countries in the world are military and finance.Military everyone is clear.Finance is also a gun.The US dollar, the United States, global use, has given the United States a very large advantage through printing the US dollar to capture global material wealth and fight against opponents.
Wave the military gun to launch a war, because of the huge war uncertainty and the huge sacrifice that may bring, the decision makers will have great concerns and resistance at the time of the gun.When waving the financial gun, the resistance encountered, and the concerns that will have, will be significantly lower.
If Trump does not step down, the new government led by Trump will have four years without re -election worries. This four years will be able to give Trump's new government and to the US Congress.The eagle in the United States, a relatively quiet and concentrated four -year window period to conduct national governance and great power competition.Then these four years will be the four years of competition strategies of various major powers and competition measures in various major powers. Among them, including financial sanctions on China and even financial warfare, they will be considered as a consideration.
If Bayeng came to power, it is impossible to consider the competition between the big China and the United States. After all, as the epidemic is raging in the United States, the United States with a strong sense of crisis in the country must consider what to do to keep your superpower status and suppress competitors for competitors.Ability development and existing strength.
After the 2014 Ukraine crisis, the United States imposed a series of financial sanctions on Russia.As one of the world's most powerful countries, Russia has still undergone a series of financial sanctions by the United States. So what decisive factors will prevent it from happening to China.IntersectionSome people say that China's economy is too large, and the United States cannot comprehensively sanction. Some people say that it is difficult for the United States to expel China as a whole. However, this is not sure that it can prevent the United States from not mobilizing the decisive factor in Chinese financial sanctions or even financial warfare.
In 2014, the United States restricted the international financial borrowings of major companies in Russia's finance, energy and military fields for more than 14 days, 60 days, and 30 days, respectively. The specific targets include Russian National Petroleum Corporation (Rosneft Oil, accounting for 40%of Russian crude oil production)., Russia's Gazprom (Gazprom), NOVATEK, etc., and restrict these companies with technologies for exploration and production projects for deep -sea, Arctic offshore or shale oil.In 2017, the United States enforced the CAATSA with a sanctions against the United States Martial Arts (CAATSA), marking that its sanctions have been strengthened again, and may impose secondary sanctions on any entity that violates Russian sanctions.In 2018, Russian sovereign debt was risky by sanctions, which led to a surge in market volatility again.During the period from 2014 to 2016, the market value of Russia's state-owned assets dropped sharply, ruble depreciations, and the plunge in oil prices continued to interweave the formation of negative feedback to the national economy.In 2017, the United States enforced the CAATSA Agreement (CAATSA), which increased its sanctions on Russia, and will impose secondary sanctions on any entity that violates Russian sanctions.In 2018, Russian sovereign debt was risky by sanctions, which led to soaring market volatility.
The Russian economy was impacted by financial sanctions in 2014-2016. Its economic growth had already declined significantly before the Ukrainian crisis; on the other hand, crude oil prices plummeted during the same period, and various comprehensive factors gave birth to the Rubbing currency between 2014-2016.crisis.In this ruble currency crisis, financial sanctions are direct triggering factor and accelerate the Russian economic recession.
Objectively speaking, US financial sanctions on Russia are not performed alone, but shared with other economic sanctions and political suppression measures.From the perspective of sanctions, the long -lasting sanctions have enlarged Russia's economic prospects uncertainty, and severely crack down on domestic and foreign investors' confidence in Russia's business environment and the investment environment, and have caused serious Russia to escape.According to Anbang Think Tank Analysis Report: Due to economic instability and facing the geopolitical pressure of the United States, Russia has been in a state of capital outflow for many years. In 2012, capital outflows were US $ 56 billion.After the Ukraine crisis, on March 20, 2014, Andrei Klepach, deputy minister of Russia, said that as investors worry about the severe sanctions of European and American countries, the government estimates that the country's capital escape in the first quarter is expected to be nearly 65 billion yuanTo $ 70 billion.This has exceeded the capital outflow of capital in 2013.
Russia is one of the five permanent members of the United Nations, and is it still under financial sanctions by the United States?Then China also needs to prevent the United States' financial sanctions and even financial wars on China.In essence, Kenneng's financial sanctions or even financial war can not only play a role in suppressing China, but also obtain huge wealth for the United States.
The United States has weapons of the US dollar, which is recognized in the world.
Goldman Sachs made three judgments on US sanctions on Chinese financial institutions.Investment Bank Goldman Sachs believes that the United States believes that the United States will not impose extensive sanctions on Chinese financial institutions. In addition, there is a strong external position in mainland China. Even if overseas funds are limited, their impact should be controlled.Goldman Sachs pointed out in the report that the basic prediction of the bank is that the first phase of the Sino -US trade agreement remains unchanged. Although it does not think that the United States will impose extensive sanctions on financial institutions, it cannot be ruled out that it will take action against individual institutions.Goldman Sachs believes that if the United States impose financial sanctions on China, three aspects will be the most affected.The first is to limit the offshore business of the Chinese banking industry and may limit the overseas operations of Chinese companies; the second is that the financial market may make a negative response to any of the actions proposed by the United States, and the degree of market response will depend on the severity of the action.Third, the impact of financial sanctions in the United States on Hong Kong may be greater, but any possible action is expected to damage the exchange rate linked to the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar, because Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves are about twice the currency base, and this oneThe proportion has remained at the same level since the global financial crisis.However, as an international financial center, its financial industry accounts for a large proportion of economy. Any financial sanctions on the economy of Hong Kong may be much larger than the Mainland.
The size of the U.S. debt has exceeded $ 26 trillion, and US dollar credit is being consumed in large quantities.Statistics show that as of August 4, the total US debt has reached 2.65 trillion US dollars. At present, the White House and Congress are negotiating on a new round of fiscal stimulus plan.Data show that from January to early June this year, US Treasury bonds increased by nearly $ 3 trillion, and the annual growth of not exceeding 1.5 trillion US dollars in previous years.At present, economic analysts generally predict that by the end of 2020, U.S. Treasury bonds may further rise and exceed $ 3 billion.
As the scale of US debt continues to rise, people are beginning to worry about how long the US dollar reserve currency status can be maintained.On July 26, Dario, the founder of the world's largest risk shelter and Qiaoshui Fund, said that the most worried about the stability of the US dollar.He said that government budget cannot always be in a state of deficit, constantly issuing government bonds or printing money.
On August 6, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report that if the United States fails to rebuild fiscal sustainability and may cause foreign funds to decline unexpectedly on US fixed income securities, which will cause financial stability risk.
On August 16th, Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party Committee of the Central Bank and Chairman of the CBRC, said in the journal, saying that there are no free lunch in the world and there are no feasts in the world.In the international currency system dominated by the US dollar, the unprecedented unlimited and loose policy of the United States currently consumes US dollar credit, erodes the foundation of global financial stability, and will have an unimaginable negative impact.Emerging economies may face multiple pressures such as input inflation, shrinkage of foreign currency assets, exchange rates and capital market shocks.What's more, the world may once again reach the edge of the global financial crisis.
This year's global public debt will exceed the Second World War, a new high. In early July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was the firstMiddot; Goganat issued such a warning at the Internet meeting jointly organized by the IMF and the University of Tokyo.According to the IMF forecast, the public debt of the developed countries in 2020 will reach 128 % of the GDP (GDP), which is the highest value of the history of 1946.During the new coronary virus epidemic, countries were forced to increase huge fiscal expenditures.Including private lending, the global borrowing amount (survey data from the International Financial Association) hit a record high from January to March, reaching 2.58 trillion US dollars, which is more than three times that of global GDP.
The era of magical currency.Sebastian Middot; Malabi in the recent papers in the recent papers expressed the expansion of the government's financial expenditure capabilities.The British Economist Magazine also expresses the status quo as a free currency.
The new crown epidemic will also shake the common sense of economic policy in the past.When will large borrowing and large expenditure continue?The favorable position is the United States of the axis currency country.Because the United States can issue the world's access to the world, it can eventually reduce the actual debt burden through the depreciation of the currency.Although China puts on a posture to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, it is impossible to shake the US dollar position immediately.
China may have been taking some actions.On August 17, US time, the Ministry of Finance of the United States announced the monthly international capital flow report.Data show that in June, China sold US $ 9.3 billion in Treasury bonds (about 64.3 billion yuan), becoming the country with the largest number of US debt.At present, the total amount of China's U.S. debt holdings remains above $ 1 trillion, and it is still the second largest overseas holding country in the U.S. debt.
In the context of the continued surge in US debt, foreign investors holding US debt accounts for increasingly smaller US debt, and the proportion of June has fallen to 26.6%, the lowest level since 2008.Faced with the continuous issuance of government bonds or printing money in the United States, investors have shifted to value -added with gold.While US debt continued to soar, foreign investors' proportion of U.S. debt has become smaller and smaller, and the proportion of June has fallen to 26.6%, the lowest level since 2008.The two largest foreign creditors, Japan and China, totaling 8.8%of US Treasury bonds, the lowest share in the past 8 years.Statistics show that by June this year, the US government fund (social security trust fund, various governments and military pensions, etc.) hold US $ 5.95 trillion, accounting for 22.5%, and the Fed holds $ 4.2 trillion, accounting for 15.9%, Commercial banks in the United States hold $ 107 trillion, accounting for 4.0%.
But Americans are not stupid, and they will not tolerate the situation that is not conducive to the global dominant status of the US dollar.If you can't breathe, what will the United States think about?Will try to find ways to do something to change the status quo!
The deterioration of Sino -US relations has become the biggest risk factor in the global field of political and economic.Since 2018, the U.S.'s tools for suppressing China have been unveiled, including politics and diplomatic pressure, tariffs and trade measures, restricting science and technology and education exchanges, restricting market access, rejection of China 5G, restricting China's investment in the United States, tightening China, ChinaAsset companies are listed in the United States, closed consulates, intended to block Tiktok and even WeChat.However, these methods do not include large -scale, systematic financial sanctions.
However, we must know that financial sanctions and even financial wars are the most lethal means that the United States may have the most lethality against China under peaceful ways.He has already used it in Russia. It can be used in China to learn lessons and better innovation improvements.
If there is a way to harvest huge benefits and can suppress the biggest opponent. At the same time, there is not much resistance of the resistance. They will seriously consider hellip; hellip;
To increase prevention in China, it is necessary to ensure financial stability, but also to ensure that the huge wealth created by hundreds of millions of people will not be plundered by people!
Author: Peng Shengyu
Strategic Researcher, Special Researcher of IFF International Financial Forum Research Institute
