Author: Wang Jiahao, Luo Jinyi
Source: Ming Pao
Earlier this month, President Lukashenko defeated Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, which was elected by the husband, was elected for the sixth time, which continued his 26 -year ruling career.He re -applied his old skills to enter his former banker VIKTOR BABARIKO and well -known blogs, and entered the exile of Russia, a former Ambassador to the United States, Valery Tsepkalo to ensure that he was exiled to Russia in the United States.Re -elected president without competition.Although Lukashenko's support rate was only 24%a few months ago, 80%of the votes were finally obtained to trigger election fraud disputes and street demonstrations.The riot police suppressed it with severe force. About 7,000 people had been arrested a few days ago, and Western society was widely condemned.
Lukashenko's resistance to resistance and the accumulation of people's grievances are the deep reasons for outbreaks of anti -government demonstrations.The population of Belarus is only 9.5 million, but about 70,000 confirmed cases have been recorded in the near future. It is one of Eastern European countries with the highest per capita diagnosis.42 million; Poland's population is about 38 million, and a total of about 57,000 cumulative diagnosis is confirmed.Belarus has a serious epidemic, and Lukashenko, who advocates the resistance of Buddhism, is difficult to blame.He did not turn off the border, does not require the public to wear a mask, and even held a parade on the victory day.A local survey conducted in March found that 70%of the respondents believed that it was necessary to implement a ban on a ban. More than half supported the school to suspend classes and employees at home, but only 8%agreed with the Buddhist resistance of Lukashenko.At the end of April, the World Health Organization pointed out that Bairos had appeared in community communication and should implement social distance measures, but Lukashenko ignored it.The government did not act, and the people had to reduce their own and spontaneous masks by themselves.The British Johnson government has already abandoned negative resistance strategies, but Lukashenko, who is also infected with new crown pneumonia, is still unmoved to this day, and its style is clear at a glance.
Although Lukashenko refused to restrict domestic business activities, the epidemic will inevitably impact economic and people's livelihood after all.In the past, he advocated personal freedom in exchange for social stability, claiming that this was a social contract, but the economic prosperity commitment he had made is difficult to fulfill the people.According to the economic report released by the World Bank in May, the local GDP of Belarus is expected to fall 4%this year, and the economic growth in the medium term will continue to weaken.In fact, as early as the outbreak of the epidemic, its economic growth had slowed, and the average annual growth rate of only about 1%in the past 10 years was only about 1%.Economically, Belarus is extremely dependent on Russia, but Russia's oil tax reform two years ago caused the former to lose huge foreign exchange income.In Belarus's industrial structure, state -owned enterprises accounted for 50 %, but Lukashenko has rarely carried out structural reforms, and the main political platform of the opposition is to promote economic liberalization.The epidemic has made the people's lives hundreds of pounds, and more than half of the national income decreases. Most people are pessimistic about the rapid economic recovery. These social factors are also demonstrations of demonstrations.
Lukashenko emphasized that the Ukraine Revolution would not be repeated in Belarus, and his confidence was unreasonable.The success of the Ukraine's Independence Plaza's revolution was attributed to the oligopoly merchants, parliament, cabinets, troops, and policemen who were changing.However, there is no oligopoly business forces in Belarus. Lukashenko has already controlled the national economy. It is not difficult to replace the current business elite.Belarus has adopted a super presidential system. Congress is just a rubber stamp, not to mention that there are no oppositions in Congress.
The Belarusian government was originally responsible for promoting the economy, but Lukashenko only paid attention to the survival of the regime and strengthened control of various departments.Two months ago, he reorganized the cabinet and replaced liberal positions with the Siloviki general to ensure the political loyalty of the staff.New Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, just resigned according to the procedure after the presidential election), is the party feather of the Secretary -General of the Security Council and the current president's office director VIKTOR SHEIMAN, which is definitely reliable;The former Prime Minister Sergei Rumas was regarded as a reformist and has worked with Barbarik for many years. The two have similar ideas.Lukashenko deterred against rebellion elites. They should not be disappeared or jailed. The more sensational examples include the disappearance of the opposition leader Viktar Hanchar in 1999 (expected to be killed), former presidential candidate Sang Sang SangAndrei Sannikov was sentenced to 5 years in 2011.
Lukashenko relies on loyal riot police to suppress demonstration, and he has a very effective effect on the hard and hard of the power organs.The powerful departments of Belarus are composed of the Security Council, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of the Interior, the KGB (KGB), and the Procuratorate. It has been treated specially for many years, including generous Lu, free medical and family benefits. Political loyalty has developed so.His eldest son Viktor Lukashenko serves as the Security Council, serves as a national security consultant, specializes in supervising the operation of the powerful department, and coordinates the suppression of the opposition and civil society.Furthermore, Lukashenke was doubtful and replaced the leaders of the powerful department from time to time to avoid leaving the subordinates of the infidelity.Over the past two years, the Secretary -General of the Security Council, the Minister of Defense and the Minister of the Interior have been re -appointed.
The civic society of Belarus is weak. In the past, the ability to mobilize opposition in the past was not bad, and it was difficult to shake the Lukashenko regime.According to the Civil Society Index of the Global Civicus (Civicus), Belarus's civic society is at the level of depression and ranks the lowest among Eastern European countries.Lukashenko has been suppressed for many years, restricting the operation of citizens through severe regulations, and narrowing their channels for raising funds.At the same time, the folk is also facing the identity of identity. For example, the controversy of the Belarusian mother tongue (less than half of the approval of the native tongue), which also hinders the development of civil society.
It is difficult for Belarusian warriors to expect the army to change, and foreign forces have successfully put pressure on Lukashenko.Be Belarus is located between Russia and Europe. Lukashenko clearly understands his geopolitical value, and his diplomatic wrist is always Mdash; mdash; Russia is unwilling to lose another Ukrainian, and Lukashenko's dictatorship of the rule of RussiaIt is best to avoid Belarus to the Western camp; Western countries have always tried to draw Belarus from Russia. Over -sanctioning Lukashenko may damage the recent foreign progress of both parties and hesitate whether to sacrifice strategic interests with democratic ideas.After the election, Beijing took the lead to congratulate Lukashenko, and the demonstration to the people reacted low -key. Because Minosk was an important hub of the Silk Road Economic Belt, Beijing was the political stability brought by the Rakshen Kostec Wire rule.
Lukashenko believes that Russia will provide assistance to him when necessary.However, the collective security treaty protects member states that have been invaded by foreign enemies. As long as the NATO maintains restraint, Russia and the European Union still have room for negotiation.Of course, Putin was happy to see Minsk's chaos. Lukashen's healing was a trapped internal and external.Military intervention has always been a second election. Moscow has learned the lessons of the square revolution.Belarus is generally positive for Russia. It also cares about Moscow's feelings. In the demonstration, it will avoid holding up the banner of anti -Russia. It is hoped that Moscow will overthrow Lukashenko under Moscow and repeat Armenia's velvet revolution.According to the polls of the Belarusian Analysis Workshop, although only 40 % of the respondents supported Russia, half of them tended to compromise with Russia.However, Belarus has long lacked other politicians who are sufficient to suppress the array, and the successor candidates also caused headaches and Russia.
Looking at the political situation of Belarus internally and outside, the current outlook for the fighting movement is difficult and optimistic.However, historical development is often full of various accidents, nor can they underestimate the power of faith.It is not because of seeing hope, but because you see the hope because you persist, it may not be unreasonable.
