Huang Nian: Will the United States establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan?

Author: Huang Nian

The conflict between the United States and Mainland China, led by Trump, has always been a global strategic thinking that blocks the rise of the mainland, but now it has become a person who has deteriorated to Trump's personal election operations.

The trend of conflict development is: continuous renovation (exit WHO), continuous expansion (net network), and levels of rising levels (sanction Lin Zhengyue).In order to save the election, Trump seems to have no border.

The moment when the US election is about to be surprised in October, the development of the situation will decide on two factors: 1. How crazy Trump is.Second, how tolerance is the mainland.

If you are sharing, Taiwan is the pen tip in Trump, and he is constantly poking the desk with his pen tip.The cabinet members visited Taiwan and raised military sales hell; hellip; sausage cut one by one. Everyone was watching how Trump would play Taiwanese cards.The most explosive imagination is two: First, the United States and Taiwan establish diplomatic relations.Second, the United States and the mainland started war and torn into Taiwan.

In these two situations, if Trump's madness is deducted, the chance of occurring is not high.But after all, it is Trump, and even if the possibility of happening is not much, it may wish to use these two imaginations to view Taiwan, the United States, and the mainland.Self -asking: If so, how should Taiwan respond?

If the United States takes the initiative to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Taiwan must be alert. Is this going to cause trouble for Taiwan or benefit Taiwan?But it is not only the initiative of the United States, and Taiwan may not have room for dodge, but it cannot be held by the beauty.If the United States and Taiwan negotiate beforehand, Taiwan's position is: Taiwan and the United States should use the United States and the Republic of China to reply to diplomatic relations as the theme of operation, and do not develop the situation where the United States and Taiwan (national) build diplomatic relations.

Because: 1. At this time, it is known that Taiwan (still) is not a country with sovereignty and independence.2. If the DPP wants to establish diplomatic relations with the United States with the status of Taiwan, the first name must be completed.Third, if Taiwan -US has built diplomatic relations with Taiwan independence, it will make the internal and external situations more difficult to grasp.Fourth, advance and retreat, Taiwan's relying on the Republic of China, not in Taiwan.

If the incident occurs, Taiwan should operate under the diplomatic relations between the United States and the Republic of China and the various tables in China, and the display will not be used to make a constitution.The situation should not have the development of hell -level.

Perhaps this imagination: First, if the United States responds to diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, Taiwan will still hold a table of China, and it is clearly that Taiwan's independence will not be launched. Beijing may be relatively restrained and stay.Because Taimei did not make the situation.Of course, this saying can also be refuted in just one sentence: wishful thinking.2. As for the merger of the reconstruction of diplomatic relations with Taiwan independence, Taiwan and the United States will not have room for room to lose tolerance.

So you can talk about the second imagination.At this point, will the United States and mainland China start war?

Who launched a war?1. Movement of Taiwan, impossible.Second, the mainland is launched.If the situation develops to the mainland thinks that it is necessary to start, and to launch an attack on Taiwan first, Taiwan must fully quote the United States for self -rescue.But in the current situation, the possibility of the mainland first is almost zero.Third, the United States launched to attack mainland China first.

There are two excuses in the United States first.First, the United States directly launched a conflict for the Taiwan Strait, and Taiwan may be abducted by the United States.However, in order to elect the Taiwan Strait to actively provoking in the Taiwan Strait, as long as Beijing is not fooled, the United States has no play to sing.2. For the election operation, the United States manufacture military conflicts in the South China Sea. This is the most likely thing to speculate on all parties today.Because in the eyes of the United States, the South China Sea is controllable than the Taiwan Strait.

If the South China Sea has an accident, Taiwan should be concerned about regional peace at the international height, and it should not be rushed to the US team.If the situation rises, it is advisable to take the opportunity to manipulate Taiwan independence.Moreover, since Trump is just an election operation. Even if he has trouble in the South China Sea, he may not want to pull it in Taiwan, so as not to be small, and make a limited election.Therefore, if there is something wrong with the South China Sea, Taiwan should know that both the United States and Beijing have maintained the necessary social#8203;#8203; distance.

The above discussion is limited to space, it is excessive simplification.But there are two points:

First, this rolling change in front of you is a reflection of Trump's election operation. Taiwan must not see it as the timing of cross -strait showdown.Taiwan must be careful. When Trump has finished his pen, he will still put his pen tip back to the desk.Therefore, in Trump's operation, Taiwan should be used to consolidate the Republic of China instead of manipulating Taiwan independence.

2. The Republic of China is not the enemy of Taiwan, but the strategy of Taiwan in the past, present, and future.Taiwan independence is to eliminate the Republic of China to save Taiwan at all.Regardless of the teasing of the United States or the threat of the mainland, Taiwan's advanced offensive and defensive can not abandon the Republic of China.The more dangerous the world bureau is, the sooner you need to consolidate the Republic of China, squatting a good step, do not go to the head of the Buddha's feet.

It is worth scrutiny that if Taiwan and the United States rebuild diplomatic relations, what is the countermeasures of the mainland?The mainland should know that even if the United States and Taiwan rebuild diplomatic relations, the United States and the Republic of China respond to diplomatic relations than the United States acknowledge that Taiwan (country) is more buffer.In fact, this has always been a multi -level thinking.For example, the mainland hopes to hear the President of the Republic of China Cai Yingwen or Taiwan President Tsai Ing -wen?Entering such a multi -level thinking, Beijing may be able to realize that in response to the unpreparedness of the two sides of the strait, the Republic of China is the Dinghai God needle on both sides of the strait.

Furthermore, if the United States explodes the islands and reefs in the South China Sea, how can Beijing respond?A few days ago, US Secretary of Defense Aispe said that he would fight with mainland China, and the battle would win.Words are used to send words before.At this time, I saw that Beijing was fully extinguishing the fire.

After more than two years of conflict between mainland China and the United States, the mainland should know that the mainland must honestly face the general medical examination report that is strong in the country.Mainland China has suffered such humiliating situations in this non -military conflict. What are the consequences of martial arts in the mainland?No wonder Qiao Liang said that Wu Tong is related to the National Games.

Trump has changed the basic philosophy of the world and mainland China.Trump may be defeated, but the train has passed and the track will stay.In the face of the new world bureaus, the mainland should be more reform and opening up, rather than the prisoner in Marx, nor the increase in nuclear military reserves.The tremendous changes in this world game have also changed the situation on the two sides of the strait. The mainland must find a solution to solving the problem of cross -strait problems outside the martial arts. The core of this plan should be how to maintain the Republic of China.

Will the United States establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan?Look at it now, it is impossible.But from the trend, it is not impossible.If it appears in the form of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Republic of China, the United States does not pierce the bottom line, Taiwan does not pierce Taiwan independence bottom line, and the mainland does not step out of the martial arts bottom line. Who says it is impossible?In particular, if there are several important countries in synchronization.

After all, the Minister of Health of the United States Achar visited the Republic of China, not Taiwan.Perhaps the possibility of responding to diplomatic relations with the Republic of China in the future is greater than the possibility of establishing diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan.The Republic of China is always here.Instead, Taiwan independence is tossing and hindering.This is also one of the reasons for anti -Taiwan independence.

Although it is just an empty imagination, this is indeed a good imagination of Taiwan, the United States, and the mainland.Although it has not happened, it can be used to think of a lot of truth, and it is also known that the Republic of China is the Dinghai God needle of Taiwan, the United States, and the mainland.