Zhang Jingwei: The US economy that is lowered by the epidemic and politics

Zhang Jingwei

The US economy is bad.

Recently, data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that due to the critical virus epidemic, the GDP of US domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year calculated a decline of 32.9%at an annual rate, the largest decline since the 1940s.

In the second quarter, the US GDP shrinks sharply, which is mainly related to the collapse of consumer spending of two -thirds of the US GDP.The epidemic blocking measures have made a large number of Americans go out, and the expenditures of catering, retail, and tourism are heavy. In the quarter, American individual consumption plummeted by 34.5%at an annual rate of 34.5%, which will also set a historical record.

It must be noted that the transcript given by the United States in the second quarter is different from the computing GDP data from general countries.The US second -quarter GDP declined 32.9%, which was obtained by annual ratio and month -on -month.If it is converted into a year -on -year data, it is almost 9.6%.Nevertheless, it is quite appalling.It should be noted that China, which is growing at a high -speed growth before the epidemic, has shrunk by 6.8%in the first quarter, which has panicked the world.The degree of economic atrophy in the second quarter of the United States can be imagined by market impact.

In this situation, President Trump was not calm.He called on the social platform to delay the general election of 2020. He claimed that mailing votes will make this fall election this fall, becoming the most inaccurate and deceptive election in history. The election should be postponed until people can properly, relieved, and safelyvote.

Delaying the election, not only does the Democratic Party disagree, but the Republican senior officials also resolutely oppose it.In fact, regardless of the White House or the Democratic Party, or the root cause of the misery of the US economy; the poor prevention and control of the epidemic and political poison are the main cause of the miserable US economy.

As far as the former is concerned, the United States is still a earthquake in the global epidemic.Nearly 5 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths highlight the serious out of control of the American epidemic.Moreover, the U.S. epidemic has entered the third wave, and the United States still has no better strategy to cope with the epidemic.In terms of wearing a mask, Trump himself has different attitudes and made a bad example for Americans.Everything restarted the economy for the election, regardless of the epidemic, the economy was not pulled, and the epidemic entered the third wave.

Under the epidemic, there are street riots caused by racism, thereby exacerbating the spread of the epidemic.In this situation, the chain of the market is blocked, causing the supply side and consumption end imbalance.The US economy is seriously dependent on consumption, and the unfastest market chain has led to weak consumption. It can be imagined that the US economy is so embarrassed.Before the second quarter transcript came out, major mainstream institutions had made precise predictions.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell even gave a blunt answer to the US economy.He said the United States faced the worst economic recession in our lives.The prospect of economic recovery is very uncertain, which depends to a large extent on whether we can successfully control the virus.

He also said: In fact, some of the signs we have seen in recent weeks show that the increase in confirmed cases and restrictions on restrictions have begun to have an impact on economic activities.

This also means that the Fed's implementation of zero interest rates and monetary policies that are close to zero interest rates and large water irrigation are invalid.Since the epidemic, the total amount of water release of the Fed has exceeded the total amount of the last six years of the last financial crisis, but the epidemic is not controlled, making the US market a big black hole;Essence

The situation of the epidemic situation is still not optimistic. The White House and the governments of various states have governments. Trump has also shown the responsibility of the White House's poor prevention and control epidemic to the state governments, the World Health Organization and even China.Therefore, the US prevention and control epidemic is not only chaotic and disorderly, but also deviates from the scientific rational track and is completely abducted by politics. Even the delay that Trump has just called for is not out of public, but based on votes.To put it plainly, it is still political private.

Besides the harm of political poison to the US economy.The main reason for the poor prevention and control of U.S. epidemic is political manipulation. Even if there is no epidemic, the donkey elephant party is full of firepower in the election year, and a comprehensive political fight.Whether it is the White House's Trump or the Democratic Party's Biden, their goals are the seat of the US President Mdash; MDash; Trump wants to achieve re -election and Bynden will overthrow Trump.

When the election year encountered a crown disease epidemic, the epidemic prevention and control became the issue of election. The two parties carried out political fighting and saliva war on prevention and control of the epidemic, rather than cooperating against the epidemic.Therefore, in the face of the epidemic prevention and control, both parties given political poison, not scientific prevention.

In addition, both parties regard China as a target for the prevention and control of the epidemic.Trump and Biden are stronger than anyone else.Especially Trump, after the initial stains and responsibility and accountability of China's failure, they began to implement more rigorous global encirclement in Huawei. In addition to disconnecting confession, they also needed to abandon the ideological bond of the English -speaking country of the Five Eye Alliance and required discarding.Huawei 5G technology and equipment.In addition, on the issue of Hong Kong and Xinjiang, the United States has increased sanctions on China; US Secretary of State Pompeo even issued a declaration of the Cold War against China, calling on Western countries to unite to fight against China.

Sino -US relations have fallen into the freezing point since the establishment of diplomatic relations, bringing a shadow on the global market, and a negative impact on the recovery of the US economic.

The bad economy is the result of poor prevention and control and the interoperability of political toxic drugs.However, under the political atmosphere of all the elections, the pace of political fighting between the United States' two parties could not stop, so it was difficult for the US economy to get out of the trend.

The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society

Renmin University of China Chongyang Financial Research Institute

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