Recently, Ge Laiyi, an expert in China, China Strategy and International Issues Research Center, said: Trump and his campaign team is using the Chinese issue to improve his possibility of winning the election, but some senior government officials have other goals.They seem to want to lock in strategies and institutional confrontations with China, so that once Bayeng was elected, the policy could not change.
This is a signal worthy of the high attention of China and the United States.
Last week, Trump imposed sanctions on Chinese and Hong Kong officials on the implementation of the Hong Kong's implementation security law. It put forward a proposal that the Chinese company might cause the Chinese company to delist from the US Stock Exchange.Tencent with Tiktok's owner's byte beating company and the owner of the communication application WeChat Tencent.
Mai Awen, a senior assistant at Barak Middot; Obama White House, said: What has become more and more clear now is that this series of amazing measures for China is driven by a group of people in the Hua Eagle. They are worried about Trump.Pu was defeated in the November election and was trying to bind to the President's policy to China.
Pompeo said in a recent speech that Trump has been enough to involve China.Pompeo is one of the hardest positions in the United States to China, and the other two are national security advisers Robert Middot; Oppite and his deputy Middot; Botien (Boming).
The former Chinese issue senior analyst Chris Middot; Johnson said: President Trump was completely caught in the new crown virus disaster, and it seemed that he had lost the election before trying it.This leaves a lot of space for the eagle, so that they can whisper with him when convenient.
In recent years, Trump is not a character to China. He does not have too many great powers in his mind. What ideology, human rights, military confrontation, etc. are not what he focuses on.He is more concerned about stocks, economy, employment, and the benefits of business, economy, and fiscal and taxes in the United States.There is a very important signal that Chinese seniors should pay attention to and can consider responding to action.U.S. President Trump recently said in an interview with the US media that after the epidemic outbreak, his relationship with Chinese leaders had cracks, and they had no call for a long time.
The author believes that this is Trump's shouting to Chinese leaders. The meaning behind it should be: Let's talk about it, don't ignore me.
It can be seen from this that Trump may not be very satisfied with the recent series of eagle -led tough measures, and may have thought that Pompeo has done a bit too much.
Pompeo's extreme speeches and behaviors have stimulated a lot of ridicule, opposition, criticism and attacking voices in the United States.Trump may have seen these excessive behaviors, and the negative effects brings are not necessarily conducive to his re -election.
You can look at the voices of various words and deeds that have recently headed by Pompeo in the United States.Fu Gaoyi mentioned in an interview with Jia Qingguo recently: I want to tell you some news that happened in the United States in the past two or three days. I think they have made things new.That is, after Pompeo delivered a speech, the domestic opposition was very strong.Many people who did not speak up now have sound.In the past three days, in addition to my article published in the Washington Post, there are several important articles criticizing Pompeo than in the past.One is the editorial version of the New York Times yesterday. The entire editorial is criticizing Pompeo, saying that we cannot go so far, we must live with China, and we must find a way to cooperate with them.Secondly, there is an article in national interests. The author is Paul Middot; Hill, who used to be a national intelligence official in Asian region in seven or eight years.His criticism was severe, and he pointed out the problems in that speech in detail.An article just published by Strategy and International Issues Research Center (CSIS) said that our way of dealing with Huawei is wrong.Maintaining all channels to open up the economic interests of the United States, even our semiconductor industry needs to be sold to many other countries, so as to maintain the current superior status.Therefore, in the past three or four days, I felt in the United States that Pompeo's speech caused such a strong opposition, which made me hope.Of course, Trump may not change before the election. They will say a lot. I worry that many Democratic candidates will also say something that is not conducive to promoting good relations between China and the United States.But I think that now such a group of people are formed, they express themselves more and start to say that we have gone too far.This makes me feel more hopeful. If we have a new president in January next year, we can start to work hard to pull the relationship between the two countries back to a better state.
Stephen, former chief Asian economist at Morgan Stanley Group.On August 5, 2020, Roki wrote an article on the United States CNN (CNN) on August 5th, which directly reprimanded the American anti -China Gang of China and the United States.The article said that in the new low atmosphere of the American public's views on China, the four gangs made full effort.But unfortunately, their arguments cannot stand on the whole. They are composed of conspiracy theory and lack of factual analysis.This involves three key areas: economic, new crown epidemic dumping pot, and positioning of US -China relations.The article mentioned that the four officials were originally a lawyer, and they lacked the background of expressing opinions in this regard and lack of practical experience.Of course, this is politics.Even so, the disconnection they showed was still shocking.The gang of four may understand the law, but the achievements of their basic knowledge are completely inaccurate.At the end of the article, the four gangs of China were arrested and public trial.In the United States, we have different ways of mdash; mdash; election.
I think Trump must be able to hear these voices that criticize the eagle.Trump is now thinking about various methods to raise his re -election. In order to consolidate domestic support and transfer the attention of domestic people to focus on the series of issues such as Trownic epidemic defense, he is currently adopting various staff members (including various eaglesVarious methods proposed by sending staff) will focus on the effects of these trials.Eagle, the recently dominated words and deeds, Presumably Trump may have been re -election effects of these actions, and have seen the great negative effects of its existence.
The United States today is not a piece of iron.The views of various states, enterprises and the people in the United States may change their views on China, but I hope that Sino -US cooperation will make large economic cakes and avoid the fundamental interests of both sides from damaging the cold war.US politics has the term Washington Beltway to describe various practices and policies of the US federal government, and states may not fully agree, especially some extreme practices.This has fully reflected Trump's approach to immigration and international students.
It was less than three months before the US election. According to the latest survey results from the Columbia Broadcasting Corporation (CBS) from August 4th to 7th, former US Vice President and Democratic Presidential candidate Joe BidenThe support rates of Pennsylvania's two key swing states are 6 percentage points higher than US President Trump.A poll made by Congress Mountain from August 2nd to 5th shows that in the scope of voters in the United States, Trump's support rate is 40%, which is lower than Biden's 43%support.You know, this is the smallest gap between the two people's transfer in recent months. The multiple polls made by many institutions have shown that Biden has led with nearly 10 percentage points (such as economists and yougovs in AugustThe poll from the 2nd to 4th is the result of 49%of Biden on Trump).
In fact, since May, Biden's support led first Trump as a state of mainstream polls, and even the polls of Trump's Huos News Network. For example, on July 23, the News NetworkThe polls released show that Trump's support in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania has lost its support.
Although polls cannot be used as the final criteria for measuring the election, it does reflect that Trump's election is worrying.
The new coronary pneumonia has become the largest black swan in the United States election.If not this epidemic situation, Trump's re -election is larger than now: at that time, the US stock market was high; the unemployment rate was low, and the unemployment rate in December 2019 was only 3.5%, which was the lowest level in 50 years.In the first stage of trade agreement, Trump's expectation of China to buy and buy will meet the demands of agricultural state voters in Hellip; Hellip; all kinds of political achievements that Trump can show off.
The outbreak of the epidemic has made the unemployment rate at a high level. The unemployment rate in July was 10.2%(below 14.7%below the highest peak in April. Such numbers are not too much for countries such as Canada.For the United States who have no savings or social security, it is a serious problem, which is the political issue of the US government). It is still higher than the financial crisis in 2008 that the financial crisis has reached 10%of the peak reached in October 2009.According to the data released by the Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor on August 7, as of July 12, the number of people who had continued to apply for unemployment relief was 16.1 million, which was still at a high level of ten times the same period last year (2019).Affected by the epidemic, by the end of June, China has not yet reached the target level of the US agriculture.
Washington, August 4th, two sources who know the plan said that during a video conference on August 15, US and Chinese high -level officials will review the implementation of the US -China first -stage trade agreement.American trade representative Littichzer and Chinese vice premier Liu He will attend the meeting.This is the first semi -annual review meeting that the agreement signed on January 15 and took effect one month later. The above meeting plans to be reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Comprehensive Trump mentioned that he has not contacted Chinese leaders for a long time, and the effect of the recent behavior of the Hawk may not be satisfied, and a meeting will be discussed in the first stage of economic and trade agreements.Then it is too stiff with China to continue to upgrade the tension between the two countries. Instead, try to ease the relationship with China, and let China cooperate with the purchase of American agricultural products to lift the election of agricultural states.And this may be just Trump's own plans, it must not be the proposal of Pompeo's eagle.I think this is a signal that China can pay attention to.
China's decision -making level should also see the above -mentioned signals.The deputy minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned in an interview on August 11 that I have been preparing to talk to the United States at any time.Le Yucheng believes that for Sino -US relations, we must not just look at it, and we cannot be rhythmic and wrong by a few anti -China forces.We must shoulder historical responsibilities, look forward, look forward, jump out of the current election politics, get out of emotional thinking, return to rational and pragmatic, and start with the three lists proposed by Wang Yi State Councilor, it is not difficult to find the way out.First of all, talk about communication.The dialogue cannot be interrupted, especially the foreign departments of the two countries cannot fall into the radio silence.Even if it is difficult and complicated, you must also get it on the desktop.I have been preparing to talk to the United States at any time.Secondly, focus on cooperation.Anti -epidemic cooperation should be a top priority. Life is in the sky, and cooperation is important.In terms of pragmatic areas such as economy and trade and global governance, regional hotspots, etc., the two sides still have a lot of room for coordination and cooperation.Third, we must control differences.The differences between the two countries are normal, but they must deal with differences with a rational and pragmatic attitude.In particular, we cannot artificially expand differences, nor can it create new differences.There are enough problems between the two parties, and we cannot do additional methods, but find ways to do subtraction.It is very important in the next few months. We must maintain a certain force and not be controlled by various extreme forces. We must firmly grasp the correct direction of the relationship between the two countries and ensure that it is not controlled and derailed.
On August 12, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian also said that on the basis of mutual respect between China and the United States, all levels and fields can communicate and communicate.
Trump is a president with his own ideas and considerations. I think the current President Trump's idea. Pompeo, who despise the reason and pattern of the mainstream in the United States, can not do it completely, let alone the eagle.I want to abduct the policy of the President's China.China can continue to encourage and call on the United States to make a sober voice in more rational and visionary people. Don't be silent, make a criticism and attack of the eagle words and deeds.Trump can listen to the sound.
Politics in the United States has not been messy before being biased by individual people.Individual hawks in the United States cannot abduct the next president's policy to China, nor will they be kidnapped in peace and friendship with more than 1.7 billion people in China and the United States.
Author: Peng Shengyu
Strategic Researcher, Special Researcher of IFF International Financial Forum Research Institute
