Deng Qingbo
In the past period, the United States has made a series of combined punch in the relations with China. Some of the United States spared no effort to render China into opponents and even enemies because of their ideological bias.International public opinion is very concerned about Sino -US relations and is worried that Sino -US relations will deteriorate.
Some Chinese scholars said that the United States is stepping on the accelerator for the deterioration of Sino -US relations, and China is trying to step on the brakes.
It is reported that the Trump administration is even considering implementing travel restrictions on all Chinese Communist Party members.U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said in an interview that the United States wanted to ensure that it was in accordance with the traditional American way, and the president and his team were studying many ideas.A White House spokesman said that for China, all options in the United States are on the desktop.
This can not help but worry many people. The United States will take more measures to deteriorate Sino -US relations. Sino -US relations will quickly slip into the new cold war and show a free fall.
It should be said that considering the huge troubles such as the current US trapped in the coronary virus epidemic, Trump government officials may use the need to provoke China to pass on the domestic contradiction crisis, transfer to American voters' incompetence against their epidemic prevention, and other issues.question.The changes in the comparison of China and the United States have made the United States democracy and republics be vigilant. It is becoming the political correctness of American society when it is hostile to the prevalence of populism.Therefore, Sino -US relations continue to deteriorate, and even due to the adventure provocation of the United States in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits, this possibility is completely existing, and this possibility must be highly vigilant.
However, looking at the general trend of the world, extending the depth of the space and space vision, we should be prepared for more deterioration of Sino -US relations; but at the same time, we must also maintain confidence and do not have to be completely pessimistic and disappointed.Because the free landing of Sino -US relations may last for a period of time, but as a whole, Sino -US relations have not been completely caught in a dead end, but have entered the pendulum stage.
The so -called pendulum stage means that Sino -US relations will enter a long period of turbulence, and sometimes even reaching a very nervous point; however, this relationship may still swing back, and in a period of time, there will be a good trend.EssenceIt ’s good and bad, good or bad alternate, and repeated danger and opportunities.
The reason for this is first caused by the United States itself.Internally, the loss of crown disease has caused the United States to become the country with the largest number of infections and deaths in the world; because of the death of the black man Freud, I could not breathe a large -scale protest of demonstration, which fully exposed the world's only global world.There are many internal problems and contradictions in the superpower.
As far as the outside world is concerned, represented by China, the growth of emerging countries around the world has made major adjustments to the comparison of international forces. The overdraft of the United States after the Cold War has further consumed its hegemonic potential energy.This internal and external factors affect each other, making the United States in the future be uncomfortable.
The United States is still the most powerful country in the world, but it has fallen into a long -term strategic dilemma, which is not enough to cope with all the global resistance to its hegemony.If it concentrates its forces to deal with China, it will not be possible to prevent the rise of other geopolitical players such as Russia and other anti -American forces; terrorism against the United States may also come back.The major allies in the United States in Europe, Japan, etc. are unlikely to sacrifice their development rights and interests in order to consolidate the hegemony of the United States.
Therefore, all the containment offensives against China will soon become the end of the crossbow, and even it will feel that it cannot choose to cooperate with China on many major issues.At this time, the pendulum of Sino -US relations will swing back, and it will be repaired to a considerable degree.
However, curbing China and preventing China is strong enough to block the hegemony of the United States, which must be the constant strategy of the United States.Therefore, once it has relatively successfully dealt with other problems, such as successfully provoking the contradiction between Russia and Europe, and holding these two forces, the temporary alleviating of various contradictions in China has made its economic strength rise again.Wait, it is bound to still go to deal with China.As a result, the pendulum of Sino -US relations will swing again.
China's strength may once again lead to overdrawn in the United States.Therefore, the United States will be forced to repeatedly sway between fighting and cooperation with China, showing a clock effect.This is why the previous US strategic elite, even if it is determined that China is the main competitor, is not willing to call China an enemy.
Sino -US relations show the clock effect, which is also related to Chinese factors.The imbalance of China's own development determines that she must adhere to the path of peaceful development, and inadvertent and unable to fight against the United States.Therefore, even though it must not be resolutely countermeasures to the containment and provocation of the United States, overall, China will be the stable force of Sino -US relations and will work hard to stabilize Sino -US relations.This also makes Sino -US relations even more turbulent, but it still has the possibility of bad to good, making the pendulum not collapse.
Therefore, unless there is a huge problem in China, the development momentum is interrupted, otherwise, the two stronger and bad of China and the United States will compete with each other and have a good relationship with each other. It will accompany the entire process of realizing national rejuvenation in the middle of the 21st century.
From the perspective of the global trend, since World War II, the two major tasks of human peace and development have not been fundamentally completed. Instead, they have faced new challenges due to the rampantism and the rise of populism.The desire to seek peace and development in the world will also always play a huge role in the United States' hegemony. The trend of multi -polarization and democratization in the international structure will still be strong.
Unless the US system collapses completely, the election has created a Bittanno's less rational leader, or the Trump government officials have lost their minds and make huge adventure decisions.With basic rationality, the United States must calm down the objective trend of the rise of global multi -pole power such as its own hegemony, China, Russia, Europe, and India, etc., so it is forced to obey the choice of realism in dealing with the relationship between China, that is, inner heart does not do not heart, that is, inner heart does not do not heart, that is, inner heart does not do not heart, that is, inner heart does not do not heart, inner heart does not do not heart, that is, inner heart does not do not heart, that is, inner heart does not do not heart, that is, inner heart does not do not heart, inner heart does not do not heart, inner no heart does not, inner do not do not heart, inner no heart does not, inner do not do not heart, inner no heart does not, inner do not do not heart, inner no heart does not, the heart is not inner notFriendship and action are restrained.
In the past, the Chinese strategic community once optimisticly judged that Sino -US relations are good or not, and bad badness is not bad. Economic and trade relations are cockpit stones.Now, as Sino -US relations enter the pendulum stage, it is more likely to present the state of the period. It is better to have a period of time, and the period is very bad. The trend of the times is the main trend.
As far as China and the United States are concerned, they should try to reduce the amplitude of this pendulum to reduce their damage to the interests of the two countries. At the same time, it is necessary to adapt to and maintain this pendulum effect to prevent the relationship between the two countries completely collapse.Disposal.
As far as other regional forces are concerned, they must not only have sufficient expectations for the deterioration of Sino -US relations for a period of time, but also maintain basic confidence in maintaining Sino -US relations. Especially in the period when Sino -US relations are in a trend of deterioration, speculation and waves help the flames to help the signs.EssenceBecause once the pendulum of Sino -US relations goes back and the relationship between the two countries has entered a good period of repair, the speculative country and region may ride tigers difficulty, two sides, and even become victims of American hegemony.
In this regard, for some politicians who are eager to move in the South China Sea situation, especially for the Taiwanese authorities that are currently greeted by the United States to curb the Chinese strategy, it is particularly worth thinking about.
The author is Chinese current affairs commentator
Taiwan Strait Relations and Public Opinion Researchers
Looking at the general trend of the world, the depth of the space and space vision should be prepared for the more deterioration of Sino -US relations, but at the same time, we must also maintain confidence and do not have to be completely pessimistic and disappointed.Because the free landing of Sino -US relations may last for a period of time, but as a whole, Sino -US relations have not been completely caught in a dead end, but have entered the pendulum stage.
