Author: Hamiomo, Hou Fujita, Jinqiao Lahua
Source: Nikkei Chinese Network
Due to the expansion of the new epidemic, the demand for gold products has decreased, but the international price of gold refresh its historical high daily.This is because the US dollar paid by the purchase of gold is depreciating.The credit of the dollar as axis currency is being tortured.
People have not used the money of the jewelry jewelry, and the capital of India, which is culturally preferred by gold, has sighed for customers scarce.
According to statistics from the International Survey Institution World Gold Association (WGC), India's jewelry or jewelry demand decreased by 60 % compared with the same period of the previous year.Not only is urban blockade caused stores, rising unemployment rates, etc. are also leading to the decline in purchasing power of consumers.
China is exactly the same.Although the new crown epidemic came to an end, the city blockade was relaxed, but the recovery of gold demand was slow.The demand for Chinese jewelry in the first half of the year decreased by 52 % compared with the same period last year.It is obviously different from the Lehman crisis with strong demand.
In contrast to the actual demand of cooling, Gold's international indicator New York Futures broke the first $ 2,000 for the first time at the end of July.The highest price has been set after 8 years.
What is pushing the price is investment funds.From January to July from January to July of the exchange trading fund (ETF) supporting assets, the amount of capital flow reached 49.1 billion US dollars, a record high.95 % is European and American funds.Through the emerging transaction application of Robinhood in the United States, young people such as young people, such as young people, are also attracted by price fluctuations and start to buy gold.
In the market, there is a view that it will reach 3,000 US dollars (Bank of America) in the next one and a half years.The lack of actual demand, but is convinced of further rise in gold, because the value of the US dollar in the world's currency trading center will continue to decline.
In order to cope with the financial market's motion in March, the Federal Reserve (FRB) launched an unlimited quantitative easing to form a pattern of national debt issued by the US government's economic stimulus countermeasures.The purchase of corporate bonds that support corporate funds turnover.In addition, countries, which have to ensure that the US dollar, have provided up to about 450 billion US dollars through the US dollar exchange framework with the central banks.
As a result, the basic currency of the Fed's funding to the United States reached more than $ 5 trillion in the amount of funds injected in the United States in May, an increase of about 50 % over the end of February.Including the US dollar as a foreign exchange reserve, including the US dollar, the global US dollar circulation World Dollar also reached a record high of $ 8 trillion in May.
The impact of the new crown epidemic unexpectedly showed that the status of the US dollar as a shaft currency was not shaken, but it aims to support the large amount of supply in the world to test the test of US dollar credit.Nomura Securities Senior Economist Xiaoshui straight said: Rather than saying that the price of gold is rising, the value of the US dollar is declining.
As of now, the US government has proposed a $ 3 trillion economic countermeasure, and is still discussing new fiscal stimulus measures to maintain unemployment countermeasures.Many investors tend to believe that in order to support the issuance of government bonds, the Fed will continue to purchase government bonds and inject US dollars. The 10 -year bond yield of US 10 -year bonds is only 0.5 %, which has fallen to the lowest in history (price increase), and gold is constantly being bought.
The new crown virus epidemic broke out again in Japan and Europe, which seemed to be temporarily subsided, and could not see signs of the end.The continuous downturn in the world economy will be difficult to avoid. The role of the Federal Reserve as a supporting force will only increase and it is difficult to weaken.
Will the dependence on currency loose finally shake the trust of the US dollar?Nangou, a senior director of the Institute of Research Institute of Ruisui Comprehensive Research Institute, believes that the depreciation of the US dollar since July and the rise in gold are a signal facing the market for future risks. This view is increasing.
