Cao Xin: It seems that China and the United States do not decompose are the main demands of China. At least it is one of the most important demands.
This column is co -sponsored by FT Chinese website and Jingwei Far Public Accounts, and the China Think Tank Foundation
On Wednesday, on the day when the United States announced its current Minister of Health's visit to Taiwan, the Xinhua News Agency of China published a long shout for the United States.In the shouting of Xinhua News Agency, the fact that the current Cabinet members of the United States have visited Taiwan for the first time since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. Instead, it shows that China will not succumb to the attitude, and uses a clear framework for the relationship between the two countries.US relations draw a bottom line and drop the temperature.Judging from the text expressed by Xinhua News Agency, China and the United States do not decompose seem to be the main demands of China. At least it is one of the most important demands. The two parts in the first and after the text are specifically highlighted and emphasized.
However, it is not what one party can be determined, not to mention that the current US presidential election is getting closer, the Chinese issue has already become the core topic and the focus of public opinion, because this is Trump's getting rid of the domestic epidemic and the domestic epidemic andThe best subject matter of economic decline.As for whether it can not be decoupled in the future, it also depends on the consideration of the interests of the United States. Since China has put forward non -decoupling as a desire, the United States naturally has to propose interests to exchange.
In view of this, the current Sino -US conflict is by no means a solution to Xinhua News Agency's shouting, but the worst plan should be made.
Find your own positioning to coexist and share
The current problem is that the United States does not consider itself to have a common interests with China.At the moment, Trump believes that in the current presidential election, it is necessary to use anti -China as a tool for election.
The fatal issue of Trump's election is: the proliferation of the domestic epidemic has made him unable to deal with it, and at the same time, the epidemic has led to a spiral decline in the US economy. Because of the impact of the epidemic, Trump is also impossible for the economy. Moreover, it is reported that Trump is basically basicallyThe number of voters in the ticket warehouse area is relatively small than the number of voters in the developed regions of the United States, and the voting results of the electoral group are now difficult to predict.All of the above is obvious that the disadvantages of Trump's re -election are obvious.On August 5th, Lin Cheman, a professor of the Department of Political History of the University of America, who successfully predicted the results of the US presidential election in the past 30 years, released a video of President Trump in Twitter: President Trump will fail.He judged the model of the election results based on the 13 core factors of the election pattern that he developed: Biden will defeat Trump with a weak advantage.
Coincidentally, according to the source of the author, there have been predictions for more than two months in the official Japanese official that Trump will fail.
In the unfavorable situation of Trump, as I predicted last month, the theme of anti -China will definitely be the best subject matter for Trump to transfer the presidential election.Because this topic will definitely attract great attention from the media and create and guide the public opinion of American voters, which will then be conducive to Trump's election; at the lowest point, public opinion can transfer public opinion's unfavorable attention to Trump.Trump has recently taken a series of actions taken by Chinese issues, such as South China Sea issues, Hong Kong issues, byte beating, WeChat and other actions, which are part of the service re -election plan.
Except for the current US presidential campaign, no matter Trump or Bayeng was elected after November, I am afraid that China is an enemy rather than a partner.
Because according to the qualitative judgment of the Trump administration and even some Western countries in today's China, they have determined that China has actually used the Western market economy system in the past few decades, but at the same time, it has been blocked in its own domestic and continued to maintain the state -owned economy.The powerful force, to a considerable extent implementation of the economic system of national capitalism and make full use of the advantages of the national system, so that its strength will grow rapidly, strengthen the strength of the Communist Party of China in power, and then use economic means to expand the influence around the world, and the sameThe Western capitalist world has launched resolute competition.As China's economic aggregate has jumped to the world second and chased the United States, this must be treated as a problem.According to this position, China has become a potential enemy of the Western world headed by the United States.
In the face of the above situation, the US policy trend is obviously: decoupling with China; and isolated from economic and technical in the Western world represented by the United States;Out of the international financial system.In addition, in the diplomacy, issues on Tibet and Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan issues, especially the South China Sea issues, have adopted various actions such as politics, economy and diplomacy to reduce China's development space and suppress China.
The United States' above -mentioned judgments and policies on China should be consistent and determined in the direction whether Trump or Biden is in power.The difference is that the method is different: Trump will be more direct and strong, with the United States as the main force, plus a few allies to implement the above -mentioned policies to China, because his ability to coordinate the allies is relatively weak;It is to deal with allies, and the allies also value him very much.At that time, the attitude of China's major allies to China will change greatly compared with Trump's current situation, especially in Germany and Japan. China's external environment will be more unfavorable than now.
In the end, the above situation is a problem with the positioning of China and the United States with each other. This positioning refers to: if the world is really a community of destiny, facing the disparity between the comprehensive national strength and global influence of China and the United States, and the United States to China to ChinaWhat kind of proper positioning should be placed on one party when dealing with the other party?This is the prerequisite for the stable development and communication between the two countries.The current reality is that this positioning is at least unclear or blurred.Since Obama's visit to Beijing that year, G2 failed, all the confusion of Sino -US relations, the root is here, and the situation has developed to this day. If this problem is not resolved, not only can it be coexist and shared between China and the United States, butThere will be no peace.
The essence of this positioning is to be clear: Who is the country that is more full of overwhelming influence in the world?And implement it in actual actions.After clarifying this point, we can define where the interests of both sides and their respective rights and obligations, and then perform their duties and do their responsibilities.Only in this way can we solve the problem of decoupling and the problem of establishing a clear framework. Otherwise, there is no way to talk about everything.
The above -mentioned problems are closely linked to the essence of Chinese diplomacy.According to Deng Xiaoping's understanding of China's diplomacy, the purpose of diplomacy is national interests and the well -being of the people. The ideology is not important, and it must be avoided in diplomacy.Deng Xiaoping's argument, of course, was related to the struggle between China and the Soviet Union in the 1960s, and it was also a summary of the experience and lessons of Chinese diplomacy positive and negative aspects.
According to the above situations, considering all factors such as history, reality, and experience, especially the urgent requirements of non -decoupling and establishing a clear framework goal. Integrate various benefits, it must be said that the G2 proposed by the American Obama was a relatively good choice that year was a relatively good choice.In particular, considering the decoustal China and the United States, plus blockade, and even worse, G2 may not be a good thing. It is almost the best way to choose from. If it can really achieve this goal.At least, this is a big sale that can be traded, at least the direction.Because in any case, China's interests should be consistent with the world's general trend.
The worst plan should be made at present
The first thing to solve Sino -US relations is that in November of this year, the tension before the new president of the United States had before this year, and the situation could not be lost due to the internal reasons of the two countries.Regardless of whether it is the new China News Agency's negligence in the United States, it is ordered to establish a clear framework, or the G2 path of the future Sino -US relations proposed by the author, in fact, it is said to the new president of the United States after November.Whether the new president is re -elected Trump or Biden.
The biggest restriction facing Trump's current election is that no topic can effectively transfer and dilute the seriously of the focus of public opinion brought about by the current US serious epidemic and economic decline like Chinese issues.Only the public opinion of China -US conflicts can effectively guide the attention of the American media and create objectivelyCreate public opinion that is conducive to Trump. The more violent movements, the more exciting the subject matter, the better the public opinion effect on him, and the greater the chance of being elected.As long as Trump dares to be bold in China.Therefore, the actions and themes of China are the subjects that he caught up before the end of the presidential election. Otherwise, it is possible to even go to jail after the election.
Therefore, we have seen that since the beginning of last month, Trump has almost threw out the South China Sea issue, Hong Kong issues, byte beating, Tencent WeChat, and US Health Minister to visit Taiwan.It is part of its re -election plan.On the one hand, these regular actions dilute public opinion on Trump, and on the other hand, they guide public opinion during the election.From the perspective of the US domestic situation, the above -mentioned series of anti -China operations have increased the effective increase in his support.
However, there are still three months before the US elections. The above operations are not enough. At the critical moment of the election, Trump also needs to take more irritating actions to attract the attention of American media and public opinion.The author believes that the South China Sea and Taiwan are the two best places to increase the chances of Trump's re -election.
The first is the South China Sea issue.According to the author's judgment, the reason why the South China Sea becomes the goal of the United States is that China lacks international recognition in the region's territorial attribution; and it is different from the Bohai and the Yellow Sea.The United States is weak.The United States is fully capable of carrying out a limited force here to completely shift domestic public opinion in the direction that is conducive to Trump's election.Especially in the local islands and reef facilities established in China, unless the army is evacuated and completely converted into civilian use, in the context of lack of international law, the United Nations and coastal sovereignty support, once the United States takes action, its security can be said to be completely lacking. Politically, it is politically.It may not be good.
In addition, the Taiwan issue is also a good theme for Trump. For example, last week, the current Health Minister announced by the United States last week's visit to Taiwan. From now on the beginning of the visit, Trump has created and guided American public opinion to help him help him help him.There are many opportunities for choosing, but this is mainly political and symbolic. Here, as long as China does not move martial arts, there are not many opportunities for martial arts in the United States.Because after all, it is at the gate of China, and the consequences are too unpredictable. Moreover, the United States says that the United Nations does not recognize Taiwan's sovereign state.If Trump adopts an excessive movement here, it may not be conducive to creating or guiding his elected public opinion. Moreover, once a Taiwan issue causes a conflict of force, it is also a controversial topic in the United States, which is not necessarily beneficial to Trump.
In the end, there is another problem. There are rumors that China has a motivation for Trump's re -motivation, and the implication is that the behavior required for the Trump campaign can be secretly default.Even so, it still causes a problem: what kind of evolution will happen to the Chinese domestic affairs bureau?To what extent can Rong Nianpower go?What does it mean to China in the future?Fu Ying said that Sino -US relations are the Chinese internal affairs of the 21st century, and it is reflected here, although she said too late.
(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
