To the extent that China and the United States have already been in the New Cold War, there are still a lot of controversy. Whether it will inevitably fall into the trap of Xunxede, which has caused the war due to the hegemony of the great power, is still a question mark, but Sino -US relations are rapidly worse.There are more and more fields. It is either you die or the zero -sum thinking that I live, and it is becoming more and more popular in both countries; and these intense signals show no signs of disappearance in the short term. These are indisputable facts.

Especially at the current difficult period of global resistance, China and the United States should have assumed the historic responsibility of coordinating the people's livelihood of the people of various countries. The reality is that the two countries have developed deeper and deeper with the development of the epidemic.The new normal in the depression of Baiye is really worse.

With the rapid rise of China and the relative decline of the United States, the relationship between China and the United States has developed from strategic competition to strategic competition, and recently evolved into strategic confrontation.Although the confrontation between China and the United States in many fields is disappointing, it is not particularly worried, because the confrontation in the fields of trade, technology, industry, and information, the most pessimistic result is only a new cold war that leads to a larger scale.As a hot battle that leads to the swordsmen of both sides.

However, it involves the core interests of the two sides and reflects the comprehensive national strength of the two sides, especially the field of confrontation played by the military strength, is a dangerous gunpowder barrel that may cause a hot war.The Taiwan issue and the South China Sea issue may be a dangerous issue that gradually upgrade the Sino -US New Cold War into a hot war, which must attract greater attention from all walks of life.

Inspiries of Taiwan and South China Sea

These two issues are usually not discussed together, because from all aspects, most of their differences for a long time are mostly more similar.Therefore, the Chinese government uses different departments to deal with these two problems. The academic community has long studied these two problems for a long time and forms different scholars.

However, in the context of the China -US strategy confrontation, the significance of these two issues to the two countries is becoming more and more similar, and the position in the confrontation between China and the United States is becoming more and more prominent.Because of the common role of the military in it, the internal connection of the two issues has become more and more close, so it is necessary to put it together to observe together.

The Chinese government believes that the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea issue can be traced back to the end of World War II. Japan returned the occupied Taiwan and the South China Sea Islands to China.The occurrence of Taiwan's issue was because the Kuomintang failed in the civil war with the Communist Party after World War II.However, the former Kuomintang regime in Taiwan has always adhered to Taiwan and the mainland to belong to the same China, and pursue unification with the mainland when the future conditions are mature.

The changes in the Taiwan issue is that in the process of resisting the authority of the Kuomintang, the local power of Taiwan has gradually developed Taiwan's consciousness of independence. Represented by the DPP, no longer pursuing unification with the mainland. Instead, it is trying to make Taiwan a true.Independent country.Beijing has always advocated that the Taiwan issue is an internal issue in China, strongly opposed the internationalization of Taiwan issues, and warned or even punish other countries that try to intervene in Taiwan. However, the United States has always been an important international factors affecting Taiwan's issues.

The Chinese government believes that the emergence of the South China Sea issue is because several Southeast Asian countries adjacent to the South China Sea occupy some islands and reefs that belong to China and form territorial disputes with China.So from the beginning, it involved international issues involving China and other related countries, but for a long time, it was only a problem with other voices.

The changes in the South China Sea issue is that the United States has gradually strengthened its intervention in the South China Sea issue in the past 10 years. After Trump came to power, it was committed to using the South China Sea issue to curb the rise of China and let the South China Sea.The problem has become an important part of the Sino -US strategy confrontation.With the upgrading of the conflict between China and the United States on the South China Sea issue, the main contradictions of the South China Sea issue are temporarily transferred from China and other vocal countries to China and the United States.

The historical origin and change of the two problems brings us at least two points of inspiration.The first is to help us understand these two issues and the importance and sensitivity to Chinese nationalism.Since the founding of the Communist Party of China in 1949, the root cause of nationalism is the century -old humiliation history of Chinese interference and aggression. The nutrients of nationalist growth are the rapid development of national strength, and the goal of nationalism is the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

In the eyes of China, the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea issue are highly related to the three aspects of Chinese nationalism: both issues can easily remind the Chinese people's humiliation history, feel split forces, and external forces.The unprecedented sense of pride in the Chinese has become more and more obstacles to the road of revival of the Chinese nation.

Some scholars believe that the current source of ideology of the Chinese government's legitimacy is not communism, but nationalism.Therefore, the Taiwan and the South China Sea issue affects China's political stability by affecting China's nationalism.These are also one reason why Beijing attaches great importance to these two issues.

The second inspiration is that in the past few years, on both issues, the United States has gradually moved from the background to the front desk, from passive to the initiative to fight against China.Therefore, in the eyes of Beijing, solving the biggest obstacles to these two problems, or the greatest pressure on Beijing on these two issues, is not Taiwan's independence forces and other voices, but the United States.

This greatly affects Beijing's strategic judgment on Washington, and believes that the issue of Taiwan and the China Sea has become an important starting point for the United States to curb China's rise. Therefore, the conflict with the United States on these two issues is strategic, structural, long -term, long -termWhat is unavoidable, in the end, it cannot be compromised.

This judgment in Beijing is largely due to the core interests of Taiwan and the China Sea of China, but it does not involve the core interests of the United States.This originally gave the United States a greater room for strategies.In other words, because it does not involve its core interests, the United States can not challenge China on these two important issues for China.But now the United States is more and more challenging China on these two issues. The best explanation is that they have become an important part of the United States to curb China's strategy.

On the other hand, Beijing's positioning of these two issues is still different.For a long time, Beijing has publicly stated that Taiwan's issue belongs to China's core interests.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the problem of solving Taiwan has become the deserved meaning of national rejuvenation, and therefore has the last period of 2049.However, Beijing has not made it publicly that the South China Sea issue belongs to the core interests of China, and more uses the core interests involved in China to emphasize the importance of the South China Sea issue.

During the Obama administration, in order to attract the attention of Southeast Asian countries and assist in the implementation of the US strategy to return to Asia, some senior US officials told the media that Chinese officials privately told them that the South China Sea issue belongs to China's core interests.However, Beijing's open position has always been: the issue of territorial sovereignty is China's core interest.ocean.

Therefore, the issue of the South China Sea, which involves the entire South China Sea, is strictly involved in China's core interests.In addition, even if it solves the territorial disputes of the South China Sea Islands, Beijing has not linked it with the national rejuvenation, and there is no timetable and final deadline.Therefore, relatively speaking, the issue of Taiwan is more important and urgent to Beijing than the South China Sea.

Taiwan and South China Sea issues are in the same game of chess

However, since Tsai Ing -wen came to power in 2016 and won re -election, coupled with Trump ’s political circles gradually formed an atmosphere of consistent and strong anti -China, and therefore rapidly developing relations with Taiwan.The pressure caused by joining with the teamed up could not find effective countermeasures for a while.Therefore, although the long -term view of time is still on the mainland, the strategic perspective of the mainland still occupies a strong advantage over Taiwan, from the perspective of short -term and tactical levels, in recent years, Beijing has actually been in the defense situation in Taiwan.The expansion and influence of Taiwan independence forces has made limited progress in promoting unification.

However, in recent years, although Beijing has some on the issue of TaiwanLost points, but a lot of scores on the South China Sea, this comparison indicates that the two issues are becoming more and more in the same chess chess.This is not only a game of strategic confrontation with the United States, but also a chess chess for the mainland to take the initiative to use the South China Sea issue to promote the solution of the Taiwan problem.

If China is in a dominant position in the South China Sea, it will be very conducive to solving the Taiwan problem.The idea of solving the Taiwan problem in Beijing includes: striving to develop its own economic strength to increase its attractiveness and influence on Taiwan; develop military strength, especially the strength of the navy and air forces to increase the pressure on Taiwan.Taiwan; when economic and military strength can compete with the United States, it effectively prevents the United States from intervening in Taiwan's issue and putting greater pressure on Taiwan.

Natural resources such as the rich oil and gas of the South China Sea, as well as the extremely important cargo transportation channel, help China to continue to enhance economic strength; the navy and air forces that can develop rapidly in order to solve the South China Sea problem can also cause pressure on Taiwan.The South China Sea is the main place for China's implementation of the farcerous defense strategy.Once a war occurs, the military facilities deployed in the South China Sea will help defend the strategic channels of the sea and block the force intervention of external forces.

In addition, if the United States has an invalidation of China's curbing on the South China Sea issue, it will greatly enhance the status in strategic confrontation between China and the United States, corresponding to Taiwan's morale, and improving China's confidence in solving Taiwan's problems.Judging from the perspective of the next 10 to 20 years, even if China still cannot effectively counter the United States and Taiwan, as long as the main directional position of the South China Sea issue, and in this processThe rapid development of military strength has proved to the international community that the United States cannot curb China in the South China Sea, and it will expand its strategic advantages relative to the United States and Taiwan, and create very favorable conditions for the final solution to the Taiwan issue.

(The author is a researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore. The article only represents the author's personal point of view)

In the eyes of China, the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea issue are highly related to the three aspects of Chinese nationalism: both issues can easily remind the Chinese people's humiliation history, feel split forces, and external forces.The unprecedented sense of pride in the Chinese has become more and more obstacles to the road of revival of the Chinese nation.