Author: Hu Beisheng
There is a very important concept in sociology and psychology, saying that self -realization predictions are popular because of the preset position, which leads to falseness.In real politics, self -realization predictions sometimes lead to tragic results.For example, the high -level mainland has not long ago that if Americans make a Chinese threat theory, it is likely to lead to self -realization predictions.Similarly, if the mainland's urgent factions blindly exaggerate the threat of Taiwan independence and Taiwan's independence is keen on consumer martial arts theory, the two sides of the strait may also fall into the prediction of self -realization.
RecentZhang Nianchi, Chen Kongli, and other senior Taiwan -related experts from Taiwan -related experts from Taiwan, Youtai, and Aitai, were actually fiercely criticized by the various rushing theory. It seems that Wu Tong is the correct politics, and he is just a self -paralysis.Although the high -profile sang of the urgent theory, the arguments are similar. It is nothing more than that the island's public opinion generally falls to Taiwan independence. The hope of peace and unity no longer exists.The two polls of the Taiwanese people's unity and recognition recently announced by Zhengda University have made perfect evidence.
Needless to say, the polls confirmed that the Taiwanese unified independence and national identity was the same.However, the conclusion of Taiwanese generally supports Taiwan independence is a serious misunderstanding of Taiwan's public opinion.As analyzed by the CICC, even if the support rate of Taiwan independence reached a record high (35.1%), the Taiwanese people, which are as high as 2/3, do not support Taiwan independence.What is even more affected is that the recognition rate of Taiwanese is nearly 30 percentage points higher than the support rate of Taiwan independence, which is enough to prove that even if the Taiwanese recognize the Taiwanese righteousness, it does not mean that Taiwanese people generally support Taiwan independence.Therefore, the first premise of Wutong theory is wrong.
Two years ago, when I was a visiting scholar in the United States, I grew with a pair of Taiwanese mothers and daughters in the United States.I think they look like Chinese, so you ask: Do you also come from China?The mother neither answered, nor did she say, but smiled politely: Hello, we come from Taiwan.Obviously the mother's distinctive Taiwanese agrees, but did she and her daughter reject the Chinese recognition and even support Taiwan independence?I am afraid that such arbitrary conclusions cannot be reached.
On the contrary, ignoring the high complexity and sensitivity of Taiwan's public opinion, willing to immerse themselves in the wrong judgment, and then advocate martial arts unscrupulously, but may force the real Taiwan independence.Ten years ago when I attended an academic conference in Taipei, I chatted with doctoral students in Taiwan.When talking about the topic of martial arts, two Taiwanese girls who were still gently considered a second in the second second suddenly filled with indignation and shouted loudly: If the PLA attacks Taiwan, blood washed Taiwan, even the Taiwanese would have Taiwan independence even if they fought!That picture is fixed in my mind, and it cannot be dissipated for a long time.
Similarly, in recent years, the Democratic Progressive Party authorities have been manipulating against the Central Insurance Taiwan for their own self -interest, and they have repeatedly tried it.Even after winning the election campaign at the beginning of the year, Tsai Ing -wen still sells fear to the people, and Da Yan declared that he could not rule out the possibility of war on both sides of the strait.Wu Zhaozheng also deliberately added himself to the mainland after cooling the Tongtun.A group of green media also regarded news such as the PLA Dongsha.
In such a treacherous atmosphere, Taiwan talks about changes, everyone is in danger, prepare for the entire troops internally, and vote for the United States.This series, as the crime of rejection of the unity, and self -reliance, has become one of the evidence of Wuyong as soon as possible, and it must increase the actual risk of martial arts as soon as possible.The Democratic Progressive Party is accustomed to harvesting political interests by martial arts, and be careful to make it true in the end, crying without tears.
(The author is a university professor)
